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Old 09-14-2020, 05:57 AM
 
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Mon 14Sept 5aEDT/AST Tropical Storm Teddy forms (formally TD20) in central Atlantic. Earliest "T" storm on known record.

Winds 40mph(65km/h)
Moving WNW 14mph(22km/h)
Pressure 1004mb
Center about 1,405miles(2,260km) E of Lesser Antilles

Expected to head generally W/WNW then turn more NW missing the Caribbean. May become a Cat3 hurricane during this time. For now no threat to land, we'll just watch and make sure it makes its turn and Bermuda keep an eye on to make sure doesn't follow Paulette.


Official updates by NHC every 6hrs at 5 & 11a/pEDT/AST: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Old 09-14-2020, 05:22 PM
 
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Mon 14Sept 5pEDT/AST

Winds 50mph(85km/h)
Moving W 14mph(22km/h)
Pressure 1002mb
Center about 1,170miles(1,180km) E of Lesser Antilles
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Old 09-15-2020, 08:28 PM
 
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Tue 15Sept 5pEDT/AST
Winds 65mph(100km/h)
Moving WNW 13mph(20km/h)
Pressure 997mb
Center about 895miles(1,440km) E of Lesser Antilles

Some dry air near the system, but overall conditions favorable for continued intensification and forecast to be a Cat3 later this week as heads in the general direction of Bermuda. Model guidance in tight agreement until near Bermuda then diverge. Euro clips Bermuda then rapidly straight into Nova Scotia / Newfoundland, GFS more East of Bermuda, but close, then out to sea. A few of the Euro ensembles bring it potentially close to New England as well, but most into Canada. Will keep an eye on it for any changes.
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Old 09-16-2020, 09:07 PM
 
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Wed 16Sept 5pEDT/AST
Winds 100mph(155km/h)
Moving NW 13mph(20km/h)
Pressure 973mb
Center about 710miles(1,145km) ENE of Lesser Antilles

Expected to be near Bermuda early Monday-ish, which is 1 week after Paulette. NHC says increasing wind shear and cooler waters churned up from Paulette may start to weaken storm around then which will likely be Cat3 later this week.

Euro model went more West again, bringing Teddy into Maine/Nova Scotia region, with ensembles (models that make the main Euro up) ranging from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia around Tuesday. GFS and its ensembles take out to sea, possibly clipping Newfoundland towards Wed/Thurs next week. CMC & Aus into to Newfoundland. Still plenty of time for changes this far out. Just a heads up to keep an eye on.
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Old 09-17-2020, 08:59 PM
 
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Thurs 17Sept 5pEDT/AST
Winds 140mph(220km/h)
Moving NW 13mph(20km/h)
Pressure 945mb
Center about 575miles(925km) NE of Lesser Antilles
Center about 1,070miles(1,725km) SE of Bermuda
Hurricane winds extend up to 60miles(95km) from center, TS winds 230miles(370km).

Rapidly intensified today to a strong Cat4! Closest pass to Bermuda likely late Sunday into Monday so that means Watches to be issued sometime Friday.

After Bermuda rapidly picks up movement speed and within just a day or so near the Nova Scotia / Newfoundland or extreme NE US coast. While the model track guidance is still somewhat split, guidance does seem to agree on rapid transition to an Extra-Tropical cyclone (looses tropical characteristics) between Bermuda and Nova Scotia. So storm wind field reach would typically spread much further out than with a hurricane. (Sandy did similar).

Euro takes it to the Maine/Canada border near the coast then turns into Nova Scotia. GFS, CMC and Australian models into Nova Scotia Tues/Wed. Regardless of final track large waves along the US and Canada coast are certain & a broad wind field reach.


Here's a map of the earlier Euro run from today by Ryan. Also shown is the possible wind field then which if Euro holds true could bring high winds into portions of the NE US...Cape Cod/Maine. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1306690170914250764
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Old 09-18-2020, 08:02 AM
 
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Looks like early model runs today zeroing in on Nova Scotia:
https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status...39898855858181
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Old 09-18-2020, 09:10 PM
 
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Fri 18Sept 8pEDT/AST,9pADT
Winds 125mph(205km/h)
Moving NW 14mph(22km/h)
Pressure 951mb
Center about 770miles(1,240km) SE of Bermuda
Hurricane winds extend up to 60miles(95km) from center, TS winds 230miles(370km).

Eye-wall Replacement Cycle (ERC) occurred today (strong storms rebuild their inner ring of winds around the eye every so often). In a holding pattern intensity wise basically while that occurs (sometimes temp weakens storm too).

Looks to pass Bermuda just East late Sun nite, then races off towards Nova Scotia for Tues. Models in pretty good agreement on this now.

Watches:
TS Watch for Bermuda.
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Old 09-19-2020, 05:23 AM
 
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Sat 19Sept 5aEDT/AST,6aADT
Winds 125mph(205km/h)
Moving NW 14mph(22km/h)
Pressure 952mb
Center about 650miles(1,045km) SE of Bermuda
Hurricane winds extend up to 60miles(95km) from center, TS winds 230miles(370km)...these will increase greatly once transitions to 'extra-tropical' just before Nova Scotia & Newfoundland.

Southeast Maine Tropical Storm winds (39+mph) chances down to just about 15% chance now per NHC. Euro & GFS model bring gust to near 50mph right along the immediate coast, Euro a little more inland, sustained winds maybe around 20mph. High waves, a few showers E Maine possible.

Bermuda TS Watch changed to Warning (Time based upgrade).
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Old 09-20-2020, 08:49 AM
 
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Sun 20Sept 8aEDT/AST,9aADT
Winds 105mph(165km/h)
Moving WNW 12mph(19km/h)
Pressure 964mb
Center about 320miles(515km) SSE of Bermuda
Hurricane winds extend up to 80miles(130km) from center, TS winds 205miles(335km)

Should turn North later and pass E of Bermuda. Doesn't look as healthy on satellite but air recon shows well built storm underneath still. But should continue to weaken. Looks to stay far enough from Maine now so just breezy towards the coast, rain chances Eastern areas and large waves it appears. Main show into Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
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Old 09-21-2020, 09:57 PM
 
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Mon 21Sept 11pEDT/AST
Winds 100mph(155km/h)
Moving N 25mph(41km/h)
Pressure 956mb
Center about 295miles(475km) NE of Bermuda
Center about 630miles(1,015km) S of Halifax, Nova Scotia
Hurricane winds extend up to 105miles(165km) from center, TS winds 275miles(445km)

Beginning its transition to Post-Tropical, winds will greatly be expanding out causing a wider reach across Nova Scotia and eventually Newfoundland. Similar effect Sandy performed. So not focused on core winds at center, as the 'core winds' will now start pushing out across much of the entire storm.

Massive 60ft+ waves in the open waters of the Atlantic, could get a couple higher. They won't be that high anywhere near land, just open waters. This + King Tides will exacerbate coastal flooding along US East coast.

Zigzagged around Bermuda's East. Now pivots back some as trough intercepts it and quickly lifts it towards Nova Scotia, eventually merging with another frontal boundary.

TS Watch/Warnings are up for portions of Canada. One of the lessons learned from Sandy was once the storm looses tropical characteristics these used to be dropped but after Sandy rules were changed to keep any watch/warnings up as if still TS/Hurricane to prevent confusion or perception of no more risk as storm approaches.
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