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Old 09-18-2020, 03:58 PM
 
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In Western Gulf of Mexico:
Fri 18Sept 4pCDT,5pEDT/AST Tropical Storm Beta forms (formally 90L, TD22).

Winds 40mph(65km/h)
Moving NNE 9mph(15km/h)
Pressure 1004mb
Center about 335miles(545km) ENE of Tampico, Mexico
Center about 280miles(450km) ESE of TX/Mexico border

Meandering around in the Western Gulf. Some wind shear affecting it currently. The thinking per NHC's discussion page is a trough over TX helps steer it more NE, then ridge builds in kicks it back West, then another trough expected pulls it back N/NE. All at slow movement speed, intensity may go up/down during all this. Rip current risk across the Gulf. For now that's a lot of rain potential if gets close to land at any time. Some moisture already being pulled up into LA/MS region.

Official updates are released by NHC every 6hrs at 4 & 10a/pCDT (5,11a/pEDT), if Watch/Warning posted then they add updates at 1 & 7a/pCDT (2,8a/pEDT): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Old 09-18-2020, 04:58 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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https://twitter.com/tornadokid3/stat...75327252979712
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Old 09-18-2020, 09:20 PM
 
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Fri evening model data suggest slow moving storm could bring rains along much of coastal Texas Sunday through Thursday next week or so then up into Louisiana. All going to depend on final track on who sees how much. Evening air recon data would seem to support a bump up to 60mph+/- here at 11pEDT/10pCDT update later. But that’s it for me for the nite.
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Old 09-19-2020, 05:31 AM
 
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Sat 19Sept 4aCDT,5aEDT/AST
Winds 60mph(95km/h)
Moving N 8mph(13km/h)
Pressure 996mb
Center about 290miles(470km) E of TX/Mexico border
Center about 300miles(480km) SW of mouth of MS River

No real changes, turns back W/NW by Sunday, slow turn back NE along TX coast dumping rains much of next week. Model guidance keeps as TS or briefly Cat1.

Watch/Warnings:
-Storm Surge Watch Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA (includes Bay's/Lakes) for 1-4ft
-Hurricane Watch Port Aransas to High Island, TX
-TS Watch S of Port Aransas to TX/Mexico border.
-TS Watch E of High Island, TX to Morgan City, LA.

(3ft is typ threshold for surge watch/warnings)
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Old 09-19-2020, 05:46 AM
 
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A high is blocking it from coming my way so another miss.
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Old 09-19-2020, 02:54 PM
 
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Nice closeup view of center a little earlier, just exposed naked swirl from wind shear but then storms fire up keeping it going:
https://twitter.com/weatherdak/statu...86322428985344
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Old 09-19-2020, 05:57 PM
 
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Another dud.
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Old 09-20-2020, 08:56 AM
 
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Sun 20Sept 7aCDT,8aEDT/AST
Winds 60mph(95km/h)
Moving WNW 3mph(6km/h)
Pressure 997mb
Center about 200miles(320km) SE of Galveston, TX
Center about 290miles(460km) E of Corpus Christi, TX
TS winds extend up to 195miles(315km) from center, mainly to the North, W & E of center.


Rain the main story. Possible totals and flash flood guidance:
https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/13076161680527728

Some surge occurring. Tornadoes will also be possible in the coming days along mid to upper TX coast into LA.
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Old 09-20-2020, 09:45 AM
 
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Latest surge map. Galveston hit almost 3ft, now starting down towards low tide:
https://twitter.com/nhc_surge/status...88158964912128
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Old 09-20-2020, 12:27 PM
 
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Beta’s center may have jumped NW to where more storms are located:
https://twitter.com/jacksillin/statu...29776061407244

This new spin can also be seen on Houston radar now:
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/s...31129613651968
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