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Old 10-05-2020, 06:41 AM
 
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Central Caribbean:
Mon 5-Oct 7aCDT,8aEDT Tropical Storm Delta forms (formally 92L, PTC26, TD26).

Winds 40mph(65km/h)
Moving WNW 9mph(15km/h)
Pressure 1004mb
Center about 130miles(210km) S of Jamaica
Center about 270miles(440km) SE of Grand Cayman
TS winds extend up to 45miles(75km) from center.

Slow steady intensification occuring. Storm isn't nice and symetrical yet and center may end up jumping as a result to where the bigger storms are located.

First up is Caymans then Cuba(where could hit as a Hurricane) and dump several inches where several already just fell from nearby Gamma. Then towards the Central US Gulf coast. Waters have cooled right near the US Gulf coast so may start to weaken on approach but won't have too much time to, but depends on final track. Will also be turning more North and/or NNE as approaches US, so timing and final track will determine how strong it actually comes in at.

Official updates are released by NHC every 3hrs at 1,4,7 & 10a/pCDT (2,5,8,11a/pEDT): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

NHC’s cone map tweet: https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/sta...86232054894594
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Old 10-05-2020, 07:57 AM
 
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Delta looking better organized mid-morning:
https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/...12931777867778
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:09 AM
 
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Mon 5-Oct 10aCDT,11aEDT

Winds 45mph(75km/h)
Moving W 7mph(11km/h)
Pressure 1002mb
Center about 135miles(215km) S of Jamaica
Center about 265miles(425km) SE of Grand Cayman
TS winds extend up to 45miles(75km) from center.

Continues to organize at a faster pace. Rapid intensification odds increasing. Microwave imagery showing bands coming into the center helping organize the core: https://twitter.com/JackSillin/statu...85909504602113

Other satellite imagery improving as well. Levi (Tropical Tidbits) mentions dry air is still a wild card on intensification: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/...36120029491203

Despite what happens next 3 days or so, there is likely to be weakening on approach to the US Gulf coast, but question still on how much. Wind shear and cooler waters in its path. Currently still likely a Hurricane at landfall.
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:04 AM
 
Location: Somewhere warm
190 posts, read 57,130 times
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Well, I was hoping to ignore the tropics after Sally and pretend we were done for the year. Sally might have not been the strongest of canes but she did quite a bit of tree damage, and electricity was out for a week. It looks like Delta might ramp into a formidable October storm before hopefully weakening before approaching the coast.


Which brings me to this question, if Delta was to do the unexpected and cross the coast as a major, do Greek names get retired? I'm guessing not.


<edit> Found my answer: No.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news...-list-of-names

Last edited by GMJag; 10-05-2020 at 11:14 AM..
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Old 10-05-2020, 06:46 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMJag View Post
...do Greek names get retired? I'm guessing not.
<edit> Found my answer: No.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news...-list-of-names
And that's the correct source too! WMO determines names & retirements (They vote in the spring if a storm is to be retired or not from the previous year.)
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Old 10-05-2020, 07:30 PM
 
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Mon 5-Oct 7pCDT,8pEDT

Winds 75mph(120km/h)
Moving WNW 8mph(13km/h)
Pressure 980mb
Center about 150miles(245km) SSW of Jamaica
Center about 220miles(355km) SSE of Grand Cayman
Hurricane winds extend up to 15miles(25km) from center. TS winds 70miles(110km).

Very small core, has been rapidly intensifying this evening. Now Cat1. Jogged a little more SW today so track has shifted to the left, this puts NE Yucatan more in line with storm. Expected to become Cat3 in just a day or so. Ideal conditions for intensification. Cancun / Cozumel should prepare. Hurricane Warnings up.

Steering: Clockwise motion of High pressure over Bahamas/FL region helping cause general WNW storm movement. Then as reaches NE Yucatan Gamma interaction may turn it a little more to the left(West) (Fujiwara effect where they may try to spin around each other some). Then heads for US Gulf coast between the High over FL and an approaching front over TX.

Strength: After NE Yucatan likely begins to weaken. Rate of weakening will depend on land interaction with Mexico, wind shear and path over warm or cooler Gulf waters. NE Texas into the FL panhandle still at risk of a Hurricane landfall. Track & timing will narrow down more as week progresses, LA likely higher risk at the moment.

Here's Levi of Tropical Tidbits evening video if you want more details and pictures to show what's going on, I always recommend these: https://youtu.be/ZAHLLUfo_qM
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Old 10-05-2020, 07:35 PM
 
Location: Somewhere warm
190 posts, read 57,130 times
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And Delta is now a hurricane. I believe it's now undergoing some RI and a major is definitely on the table, maybe even likely. There's still 36 hours or more of prime conditions ahead, including some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic basin. Not looking good for the YP. The HWRF has it down to 935 mb at that point and near 120 kts. It often overdoes it but we'll see. I'm ready for winter.
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Old 10-05-2020, 07:42 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
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Wasn't expecting to be impacted by a second hurricane this season but looking like a real possibility.

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Old 10-05-2020, 08:43 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ral31 View Post
Wasn't expecting to be impacted by a second hurricane this season but looking like a real possibility.
At least that's not mid 90's to go with it this time!

Last edited by Psychoma; 10-05-2020 at 08:59 PM..
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Old 10-05-2020, 08:59 PM
 
7,260 posts, read 4,632,715 times
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Mon 5-Oct 10pCDT,11pEDT
Winds 80mph(130km/h)
Moving WNW 7mph(11km/h)
Pressure 977mb
Center about 170miles(270km) SW of Jamaica
Center about 180miles(295km) SSE of Grand Cayman
Hurricane winds extend up to 10miles(20km) from center. TS winds 70miles(110km).
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