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Old 11-02-2020, 07:14 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
Could be a distaster down there...yikes

Once again the NHC under forecasts strength..tack right as always.

Intensity: Still one of the hardest things to predict of hurricanes. Impressive run by Eta today tho, wow!
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Old 11-02-2020, 07:21 PM
 
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Mon 6pCST,7pEST 2Nov
Winds 150mph(240km/h), Moving WSW 9mph(15km/h), Pressure 934mb
Center about 70miles(115km) ENE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.
Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 125miles(205km).

Cat4. Earlier recon flights were scrubbed due to issues with the planes. Now one about to go through the eyewall to see what we really have. Satellite data makes a strong case for Cat5 upgrade. We'll know shortly. Per Mike Lowry tweet recon showing winds even just 30miles from the eye at below 60mph. The one 'good' thing' about super strong storms are those winds are typically extremely close to the center/eye and much less outside that: https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/st...48561422508032
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Old 11-02-2020, 07:30 PM
 
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Looks like first pass thru eye N to S direction was 150mph, pressure still falling into the 927mb or so. Wind tagged as suspect so requires additional analysis to confirm. Likely stronger winds in other quadrants. they'll make multiple passes thru eye next few hours. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/


Looks like limited radar data ( https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1323452610754609152 ) and the recon data ( https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/sta...53156886487040 ) suggest a secondary eye wall starting to form. This would indicate ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle). (Storms have to replace their eyewall like batteries).

Last edited by Psychoma; 11-02-2020 at 07:39 PM..
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Old 11-02-2020, 08:04 PM
 
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Mon 9pCST,10pEST 2Nov
Winds 150mph(240km/h), Moving WSW 7mph(11km/h), Pressure 927mb
Center about 45miles(75km) E of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.
Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 125miles(205km).


Cat4 with Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) possibly starting. Landfall Tuesday into Nicaragua. By weeks end likely remnants or a piece of Eta move back into the Caribbean.
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Old 11-02-2020, 08:15 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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#Hurricane #Eta is stronger. I knew that prior pass didn't make sense. Extrapolated pressure at least 925.3 mb with 135 kts / 155 mph winds. This hurricane is on the verge of Cat. 5.

https://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX/s...63295001595905
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Old 11-02-2020, 08:24 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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40mph to 150 within 24hrs

https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1323465839950110724
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Old 11-02-2020, 08:27 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Big blocking ridge coming in eastern U.S so it shoulk dnt come north...but maybe if the ridge builds west more it may sneak up the coast mid month?
https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/sta...750645257?s=19

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Old 11-02-2020, 09:17 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Intensity: Still one of the hardest things to predict of hurricanes. Impressive run by Eta today tho, wow!
It is, but you'd think after about 100 times under forecasting the rapid intensification of these storms in low wind shear and warm water in the southern gulf and western carribbean that they would err on the higher side.

regardless..how those countries handle this one is beyond me. Slow mover 150 plus MPH winds...mountains enhancing rainfall..this may be worse than Mitch.
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Old 11-03-2020, 04:01 AM
 
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Crazy how we can't get any coverage of this over here in the US, even the weather channel was playing junk media this morning that had nothing to do with this hurricane.
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Old 11-03-2020, 04:24 AM
 
Location: Tricity, PL
61,729 posts, read 87,147,355 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poseidon3290 View Post
Crazy how we can't get any coverage of this over here in the US, even the weather channel was playing junk media this morning that had nothing to do with this hurricane.
Some coverage you can find here:
Track The Tropics - Spaghetti Models - Hurricane Season 2020
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