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Old 11-03-2020, 05:29 AM
 
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That part of the world is a NO NO for us. I can bet ya some coconuts are getting blown off tree's about this time.
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Old 11-03-2020, 09:10 AM
 
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Tue 9aCST,10aEST 3Nov
Winds 145mph(230km/h), Moving WSW 5mph(7km/h), Pressure 938mb
Center about 30miles(50km) ESE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.
Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 115miles(185km).

Little weaker after ERC. Likely peaked just before air recon plane got to it last night. Off-season post-report may / may not adjust peak winds higher in the end.

Crawling just offshore. When finally comes in surge of 14-21ft possible near center. Winds will subside fairly quickly over mountainous terrain. Rainfall, flooding/landslides will be the main story through the week unfortunately.

Eventual remnants then back into the Caribbean by the weekend and restrengthens.
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Old 11-03-2020, 09:31 AM
 
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Posted the 0z Euro and 06z GFS full runs of precipitable water vapor loop. Decent way to show possible remnants/named storm meandering around the Caribbean - Cuba - Gulf of Mexico region into mid-November. Subject to change this far out of course but interesting to see the two main models kind of agree on this crazy scenario for now in November.


https://twitter.com/WeatherSources/s...47991123742722
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Old 11-03-2020, 10:59 AM
 
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Eta looking weaker on satellite now: https://twitter.com/cimss_satellite/...68299050340353
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Old 11-03-2020, 12:08 PM
 
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Tue 12pCST,1pEST 3Nov
Winds 140mph(220km/h), Moving W 3mph(6km/h), Pressure 940mb
Center about 20miles(35km) SSE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.
Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 115miles(185km).

Moving at walking speed. Eye right next to the coast.
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:39 PM
 
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Tue 6pCST,7pEST 3Nov
Winds 110mph(175km/h), Moving W 5mph(7km/h), Pressure 965mb
Center about 25miles(40km) SW of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.
Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 115miles(185km).

Made landfall this afternoon as Cat4. Now Cat2 inland. Northern eyewall passed across a fair portion of Puerto Cabezas, airport measured 107mph sustained, gust to 135mph earlier. Airport on the north side of town, storm is South of town.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:17 AM
 
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Wed 6aCST,7aEST 4Nov
Winds 60mph(95km/h), Moving W 8mph(13km/h), Pressure 993mb
Center about 90miles(140km) W of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.
TS winds extend up to 115miles(185km) from center.

TS now. Rain maker. Back over water around Friday
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Old 11-04-2020, 06:12 PM
 
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I pray somehow i can get some rain as it should be a lop sided system with the weather well to the east of the center if it even gets near me and stays west of me.
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Old 11-04-2020, 08:10 PM
 
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Wed 6pCST,7pEST 4Nov
Winds 35mph(55km/h), Moving W 7mph(11km/h), Pressure 1002mb
Center about 70miles(115km) E of Tegucigalpa, Honduras.

Weakens to Tropical Depression.
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Old 11-05-2020, 07:19 AM
 
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Thurs 3aCST,4aEST 5Nov
Winds 30mph(45km/h), Moving WNW 8mph(13km/h), Pressure 1006mb

Over central Honduras, starting its turn up towards E side of the Yucatán and back towards warm waters. No Watch/Warnings so NHC only updates track & storm stats every 6hrs again at 4&10a/pEST(3,9a/pCST). Watches will likely be issued for Caymans & Cuba tonight or so & FL by late Friday or Saturday (time based issued).

NWS Miami going with an early call of up to 8-10” right along SE FL coast, much less as go inland (counter clockwise flow/spin of storm/rains): https://twitter.com/nwsmiami/status/1324283227385651200

Last edited by Psychoma; 11-05-2020 at 07:42 AM..
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