Atlantic - Eta forms October 31, 2020 (days, sun, normal, month)

[Psychoma]

Midday Thurs - appears center somewhere in SW / W Honduras, just N of El Salvador or just center of a general spin over the region causing scattered showers. Low Level Center may / may not be there anymore = once emerges over water we’ll either have Eta again or renamed next name of Theta.

[Psychoma]

Thurs 6pCST,7pEST 5Nov
Winds 35mph(55km/h), Moving NNW 8mph(13km/h), Pressure 1004mb

Back over water. Very disorganized at the moment though. Looks like NHC will keep the Eta name when redevelops. NHC resumes advisories every 3hours as TS Watch for Cayman Islands up.

[LKJ1988]

What a fast come back that it is now over water. Build baby build. This is my last chance for some tropical weather this year and need some rain bad. I just hope it can go west of me and get pulled to the northeast.

No matter what it would become it won't get super strong in the gulf as water temps have come down and the upper levels will be kinda hard on it.

[Poseidon3290]

Well I have a boat in the water ocean side right smack in the middle of the keys.. going to throw some more lines on it, but there's no way it's coming out of the water... will post pictures if it isn't too dark out during the height.

[LKJ1988]

I don't see it becoming more than a CAT1 at best so the keys should do fine.

[Psychoma]

Friday morning impressive/deep convection building near supposed center, but has come off the peak of that a little since sunrise. Air recon will check the storm out later today to see what we have. But disorganized/weak at the moment.

[Psychoma]

Fri 9aCST,10aEST 6Nov
Winds 35mph(55km/h), Moving NNE 7mph(11km/h), Pressure 1004mb

Watch/Warning (time based issued, Watch at 48hrs and Warning at 36hrs prior to TS Winds expected):
-TS Warning Cayman Islands
-TS Watch West & Central Cuba
Watches for the Keys and S FL possible by tonight or early Saturday

[jp03]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

I don't see it becoming more than a CAT1 at best so the keys should do fine.

'
Hey all your complaining about storms "missing" may have paid off..long term spaghetti models average show a northwest Florida peninsula landfall

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by jp03

'
Hey all your complaining about storms "missing" may have paid off..long term spaghetti models average show a northwest Florida peninsula landfall

I would love 12" of rain. I am sure it will be a lop sided system with the bad weather well to the east of the center and it will pick up forward speed once it is in the north gulf. Water temps are down and dry air aloft will make it hard for it to become strong. I will take whatever rain i can get been about 2 months since i had any real rain and only about 25" total for the year.

[Psychoma]

Fri 6pCST,7pEST 6Nov
Winds 35mph(55km/h), Moving NE 8mph(13km/h), Pressure 1002mb

Elongated blob of scattered showers but named TS again likely soon. Watches for Keys, S FL, Bahamas likely issued at 10pEST tonight, if not then in the morning (time based issued). Likely a more lopsided system with more showers to the North or so eventually. Moisture should stream up across the SE US even as Eta meanders around S FL / Gulf next week. TS likely, Cat1 can't be ruled out during all this.

Tropical Tidbits evening vid with tons more detail and explanation here: https://youtu.be/-0KJNRbeaA0