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Old 11-07-2020, 09:54 AM
 
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Sat 9aCST,10aEST
Winds 40mph(65km/h), Moving NE 17mph(28km/h), Pressure 998mb
TS winds extend up to 60miles(95km) from center

Back to Tropical Storm. Center jumped NE to where more intense storms are near Caymans(sustained wind of 40mph there). Recent air recon picking up winds around 60mph tho just NW of Caymans around 1045aEST ( https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ ).

Watch/Warning:
-TS Warning Cayman Islands, central Cuba, S FL, Keys, NW Bahamas
-TS Watch W Cuba, just above S FL to near central FL

Long period of onshore winds through the week will produce some minor surge/higher tides, will increase rip current risk:
-Surge 2-3ft Keys, N to Marco Island & N to Miami, & again Flagler/Volusia Co FL line N to just N of Brunswick, GA
-Surge 1-2ft Miami to Flagler/Volusia Co line
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Old 11-07-2020, 10:11 AM
 
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Sat 11aEST - Winds bumped up to 50mph per air recon.
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Old 11-07-2020, 04:58 PM
 
Location: Inland FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
I would love 12" of rain. I am sure it will be a lop sided system with the bad weather well to the east of the center and it will pick up forward speed once it is in the north gulf. Water temps are down and dry air aloft will make it hard for it to become strong. I will take whatever rain i can get been about 2 months since i had any real rain and only about 25" total for the year.
Whenever peninsula fl gets hit by a system, it's always just a tropical storm and rarely a major.
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Old 11-07-2020, 05:34 PM
 
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On the boat in the keys, hope this doesn't go bad.
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Old 11-07-2020, 05:52 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Poseidon3290 View Post
On the boat in the keys, hope this doesn't go bad.
It won't, upper level shear is your friend.
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Old 11-07-2020, 05:56 PM
 
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Originally Posted by floridarebel View Post
Whenever peninsula fl gets hit by a system, it's always just a tropical storm and rarely a major.
99 years so far.
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Old 11-07-2020, 10:33 PM
 
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Sat 9pCST,10pEST
Winds 65mph(100km/h), Moving NE 13mph(20km/h), Pressure 991mb
TS winds extend up to 115miles(185km) from center

About to run into Cuba. Mountains should disrupt it some then has a chance to reorganize once back over water Sunday.
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Old 11-08-2020, 06:50 AM
 
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This is gonna be a long and slooow moving storm. I just pray it can stay west of me and bring me rain of some kind, but not looking for much really as i know how this always works out as these storms know i want them to come to me and they never do.
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Old 11-08-2020, 09:17 AM
 
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Sun 9aCST,10aEST
Winds 65mph(100km/h), Moving N 14mph(22km/h), Pressure 993mb
TS winds extend up to 125miles(205km) from center

Air recon & radar show Eta core surprisingly remained intact over mountains of Cuba. Rain wraps around over half of center/eye. Still though, dry air pushing up against W/SW side of storm. As we're starting with a slightly stronger storm this morning, some of the Hurricane Watch & Surge Watch areas changed to Warning. NHC has it as a Cat1 near the FL Keys and into the Gulf where it'll possibly pass over the Loop Current (Warm water current that eventually becomes the Gulf Stream), then NHC has it weakening as heads NE by weeks end.
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Old 11-08-2020, 09:33 AM
 
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Would love to see a CAT2 coming my way but water temps and shear won't support such a strong storm. Best thing is get it northwest of me and stall it for 4 days and bring me 10 to 20" of rain. Even 20" and i will be below normal for the year.
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