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Old 10-31-2020, 10:24 PM
 
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Saturday 31-Oct2020 Tropical Storm Eta forms central Caribbean. Formally TD29. Ties 2005 season.
Winds 40mph(65km/h)
Moving W 15mph(24km/h)
Pressure 1005mb
Center about 270miles(435km) SE of Kingston, Jamaica
TS winds extend up to 60miles(95km) from center.

Steadily to rapidly intensifies. Heads generally West towards Central American coast Mon/Tue as Hurricane then starts to drift near land. Huge rain maker for Honduras / Nicaragua region likely. Some models eventually take into Pacific, others hint at heading North or NE once nears land, or they're picking up signals of another storm system forming in the Caribbean next weekend. Confidence low in track after Tuesday for now.

Hurricane Watch for portions of coastal Honduras & Nicaragua.
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Old 11-01-2020, 03:30 AM
 
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Another FL miss.
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Old 11-01-2020, 05:44 AM
 
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Sun 6aCST,7aEST 1Nov

Winds 40mph(65km/h)
Moving W 15mph(24km/h)
Pressure 1005mb
Center about 215miles(345km) S of Kingston, Jamaica
Center about 435miles(700km) E of Nicaragua/Honduras border
TS winds extend up to 60miles(95km) from center.

NHC forecasting up to 30inches of rain into portions of Central America.

The overnight Euro model stalls over Central America then re-emerges back into Caribbean by weeks end, then loops back around Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico. GFS is similar. Plenty of time for additional changes on this potential wild track.

Updates are issued by NHC every 3 hours at 1,4,7 & 10am/pmEST (3,6,9 & 12am/pmCST) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ NHC does runs on Zulu time and does not honor Daylight Saving that just ended so for the rest of us that means updates appear an hour earlier now.
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Old 11-01-2020, 08:10 PM
 
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Sun 9pCST,10pEST 1Nov
Winds 70mph(110km/h)
Moving W 13mph(20km/h)
Pressure 989mb
Center about 215miles(345km) E of Nicaragua/Honduras border
TS winds extend up to 140miles(220km) from center.


Strengthening Hurricane shortly.
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Old 11-02-2020, 06:19 AM
 
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Mon 6aCST,7aEST 2Nov
Winds 90mph(150km/h)
Moving W 10mph(17km/h)
Pressure 974mb
Center about 140miles(225km) E of Nicaragua/Honduras border
Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 125miles(205km).

Cat1 now, Cat2 shortly. Outer bands onshore. Historical rainfall for the region, upwards of 3ft (915mm) possible some locations. Storm surge 10-15ft possible near where center comes ashore.
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Old 11-02-2020, 08:33 AM
 
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Mon 9aCST,10aEST 2Nov
Winds 110mph(175km/h), Moving W 9mph(15km/h), Pressure 962mb
Center about 115miles(185km) E of Nicaragua/Honduras border
Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 115miles(185km).

Cat2 about to be Cat3. Storm surge 12-18ft possible.
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Old 11-02-2020, 09:39 AM
 
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Given satellite imagery Eta is likely a Cat3 or even a 4. We’ll see what the afternoon updates reveal. No air recon in storm currently.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:52 AM
 
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Mon 12pCST,1pEST 2Nov
Winds 120mph(195km/h), Moving W 9mph(15km/h), Pressure 957mb
Center about 85miles(135km) E of Nicaragua/Honduras border
Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 115miles(185km).

Cat3 now.
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Old 11-02-2020, 02:54 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Mon 12pCST,1pEST 2Nov
Winds 120mph(195km/h), Moving W 9mph(15km/h), Pressure 957mb
Center about 85miles(135km) E of Nicaragua/Honduras border
Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 115miles(185km).

Cat3 now.
Could be a distaster down there...yikes

Once again the NHC under forecasts strength..tack right as always.
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Old 11-02-2020, 05:03 PM
 
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Just great looking exhaust and outflow. Why can't this be in the gulf headed for me? Why can't i get one wish to come true. Water temps are now too cool to support a Cat4 or 5 in my area. Upper levels around the stair steps are just gone in that area and this is why we see such perfect outflow.
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