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Old 05-18-2008, 10:10 AM
 
Location: S.E. Florida
392 posts, read 1,148,079 times
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Well, I'm begining to get more of a gut feeling that Florida and probably the Southern portion of Florida will get something this year. Be it a strong Tropical Storm or a Hurricane.

It's been way too dry and hot for May.

I remember May of 1992.... is was just like this. Hot, dry and along came Andrew.
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Old 06-02-2008, 09:22 AM
 
Location: NJ
854 posts, read 2,592,441 times
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so? what do the experts say? :>
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Old 06-02-2008, 06:39 PM
 
Location: S.E. Florida
392 posts, read 1,148,079 times
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The SO CALLED experts are saying a busy, busy, busy season. Let's see what famous Dr. Gray has to say tomorrow when he updates his forecast.

But I know old Max Mayfield is saying it's going to be busy

But it only take one to make our day here in South Florida BAD........
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Old 06-02-2008, 07:59 PM
 
Location: Vero Beach
250 posts, read 1,398,479 times
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I heard someone today say that if the lovebugs are scarce this season we are looking at a bad year.....so far havent harldy seen any lovebugs!!! Has anyone else heard of this theory
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Old 06-02-2008, 09:10 PM
 
Location: Palmetto Bay, FL
50 posts, read 154,414 times
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Southwest Florida is a little more humid and a lot more stormy then southeast in summer. Usually the winds come off the Atlantic (east), so the east coast is in the sea-breeze most of the day, and most storms don't start in the sea-breeze. In the west coast it is harder to get a sea-breeze because the east wind opposes it....and, an east wind has been traveling over the everglades for 60 miles before it reaches the west coast.

As far as hurricanes, I think climatically the west coast gets more storms but the east coast gets stronger storms. Also the west coast is at a bigger flood/surge risk from storms. But it would take a lifetime or two before you would notice the climatic differences...any one year might be very different (think Charley!!!)
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Old 06-02-2008, 09:38 PM
 
Location: Palmetto Bay, FL
50 posts, read 154,414 times
Reputation: 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthAfrica75 View Post
The SO CALLED experts are saying a busy, busy, busy season. Let's see what famous Dr. Gray has to say tomorrow when he updates his forecast.

But I know old Max Mayfield is saying it's going to be busy

But it only take one to make our day here in South Florida BAD........
These "so-called" experts have a PhD and a lifetime of experience doing scientific research on hurricanes and severe weather, and they still get it wrong! However, there is natural variability beyond what's predictable no matter how much we know about the atmosphere and no matter how hard we try ("chaos"). On a year-to-year basis unfortunately the chaotic variability exceeds the predictable variability. This is because too much depends on the individual storms, which we (I am a PhD student of meteorology) have trouble predicting out even 3 days.

So if you make a prediction for 50 straight years using the best methods, you still get, on average, only a small improvement over making random guesses each year. It's ugly. Hey, stock market forecasts also seem worthless if you just want to decide whether to buy or sell today, but in the *long run* they're worth *something* to *somebody*. It's just that the pre-hurricane season forecasts are probably worthless for the average person who just wants to know if their city will get hit this year. It's like deciding whether to buy a stock based on one man's prediction....a bad idea. Buy based on market fundamentals, P/E ratio, your portfolio balance, and the like. For hurricanes, don't try to decide whether to prepare this year based on one seasonal forecast...just be ready each year! Because fundamentally....you don't want to be caught in a major hurricane unprepared!!!
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Old 06-03-2008, 05:16 PM
 
Location: S.E. Florida
392 posts, read 1,148,079 times
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Mother Nature is Mother Nature and she will do what she wants, when she wants and how she wants no matter who predicts what.

I am more prepared now than I was for Wilma and I was prepared for her arrival. With every storm you learn something new. I'm sure if and when we get another storm here in South Florida I will realize that I needed something I don't have in my plans at this time.
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Old 06-03-2008, 07:58 PM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 24,555,647 times
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I am still confused. While many parts of Florida have recieved rain, my area got 0 inches in May. This is not exactly the same as 1992, so my gut feeling says Miami will be spared. My hope is that here in the Keys we may be getting some tropical activity. We really need rain here!!
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Old 06-14-2008, 03:36 PM
 
Location: Finally made it to Florida and lovin' every minute!
22,677 posts, read 17,603,734 times
Reputation: 17548
Here in SW Florida, we had a dry end of May, but, boy, has June been wet! Any predictions on that? Thanks. BTW, nice to see some of my "old" buddies - Tallrick, Sunrico. I'm hoping that this summer is as quiet as last for us.
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