Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 08-27-2023, 09:52 AM
 
7,258 posts, read 4,627,818 times
Reputation: 2105

Advertisements

Sun 27Aug 1015aCDT/1115aEDT: Air recon data flying around TD10 near Cozumel, Mexico now gives us Tropical Storm idalia about 80miles(135km) ESE of Cozumel.

Winds 40mph(65km/h), moving East 2mph(4km/h), pressure 996mb.

TS Warning/Watch remains portions of Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba. TS, Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches to be issued for FL coast later today (time based issued: 48hrs prior to TS winds arriving).

NHC has 90mph Cat1 NW of Tampa heading for the big bend area Wednesday at sunrise but does mention in their discussion text that rapid intensification is possible. Approaching trough may create wind shear NorthWest side of storm but may be favorable environment East side. Where does all that setup?

Rains:
Yucatan: 2-4in, isolated 6.
Cuba: 3-6in, isolated 10.
Portions of FL panhandle / West FL: 3-6in, isolated 10.
Carolina's / Eastern GA: depends on track by several inches possible.

Tornadoes will be possible, mainly NE of storm center as approaches and moves over the SE US. Typically short lived, and move in the direction of the storm that spawned it.

Storm Surge Watch/Warning is typ for 3ft or higher. After FL's West coast will likely see coastal flooding issues along GA, SC and NC coast with any onshore wind flow directions.

Scattered power outages and downed trees will be common here or there anywhere that sees around 40mph or higher winds. More wind then more widespread that will become.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 08-27-2023, 02:15 PM
Status: "everybody getting reported now.." (set 21 days ago)
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,550 posts, read 16,536,658 times
Reputation: 6033
Looks like it's going to take a path similar to Michael. That's why the models are all over the place for wins Strength . Just like Michael its going to go through a patch of water that is extremely hot , almost 100 degrees according to NBC Miami. Some of the spaghetti models having it hitting cat 3 late Tuesday, others having it as a weak cat 1.

The models have gotten the last 2 or 3 storms wrong when it comes to intensity in that area, all of them blow up larger and more powerful than
Predicted there, so this is something to watch .

Then there is the fact that some weather stations are still reporting the cone and not the models . The average of the cone is usually off by a lot lately, there is always one model doing a loopt loop that makes the average move way east or west. This one is no different as those weirder models are moving the center of the cone way east and south near Cedar Key. The majority of the models on Spaghetti Models.com with the GEF have the center making land fall WEST of Panama City. That's a big difference . 100 miles+

We won't really know until Monday or even Tuesday morning
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-27-2023, 02:29 PM
 
30,432 posts, read 21,241,024 times
Reputation: 11979
If everything was just right and it slowed down we could see a super cat 5 with gust over 230mph. Gonna move too fast to get that strong.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-27-2023, 04:43 PM
Status: "everybody getting reported now.." (set 21 days ago)
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,550 posts, read 16,536,658 times
Reputation: 6033
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
If everything was just right and it slowed down we could see a super cat 5 with gust over 230mph. Gonna move too fast to get that strong.
The wind models all keep getting revised upwards. Now they are all between cat 1 And cat 3

Latest models have again moved east with the navy model ( labeled COTC) being the outlier that's dragging the cone south , with Ft. Meyers being the landfall in that model.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-27-2023, 05:00 PM
 
7,258 posts, read 4,627,818 times
Reputation: 2105
Sun 27Aug 5pEDT/4pCDT: Winds 40mph(65km/h), drifting NE 3mph(6km/h), pressure 995mb.

Reminder with Watches/Warnings posted for land areas that NHC updates storm stats every 3hrs at 2,5,8,11am/pmEDT.

The expected Watches for FL up: Storm Surge Watch Chokoloskee (just S of Marco Island / Everglades City) North to Indian Pass (just W of Apalachicola). Hurricane Watch Englewood to Indian Pass. Tropical Storm Watch S of Englewood to Chokoloskee.

Will post some additional details shortly.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-27-2023, 05:04 PM
 
30,432 posts, read 21,241,024 times
Reputation: 11979
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
The wind models all keep getting revised upwards. Now they are all between cat 1 And cat 3

Latest models have again moved east with the navy model ( labeled COTC) being the outlier that's dragging the cone south , with Ft. Meyers being the landfall in that model.
Long as it stays 40 or more offshore from me i should be ok. If it blew up to a CAT4 and made landfall just north of me it would pull up a bowl of water 18ft high. That would be the end for me for good. Not gonna go on if the house goes.

Best case it 70 miles west of me and 10" of rain and winds 80mph or less. Anything over 120mph and it is over.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-27-2023, 05:37 PM
 
7,258 posts, read 4,627,818 times
Reputation: 2105
Some extra notes for those seeking data:
Keep in mind several air recon planes collecting data in storm and around the Gulf ahead this afternoon/evening so that will go into the models tonight. Air recon data can increase forecast accuracy by up to 20%.

Current:
Basically meandering around rest of Sunday night, starts moving more North Monday. Still has some organizing to do.

Strength:
NHC again bumps up winds for Tuesday evening near FL to 100mph. Some models continue to show greater chance for rapid intensification.
NHC: Cat2 (5pm data)
HWRF: Cat3 (midday run)
HMON: Cat3/4 (evening run)
HAFS-A: Cat3 (evening run)
HAFS-B: Cat3/4 (evening run)
GFS: Cat3 (evening run)
Euro: Cat2 (evening run)
Note: Intensity is typically harder to predict than track.
Just some random model data above, the HAFS models are new this year.


Track:
Keep in mind the cone is the last 5-years average error in storm center location that far out in time. The cone is the same size for all storms each calendar year, size readjusted based on previous 5yr errors averages. Overall the track by NHC has an average better track record than any one model. And like with Ian, the angle of approach makes matters more complicated, as slight wobbles at these angles can mean many many miles difference in coastal landfall location.

Overall slight shifts more east each update. The S/SE drift all day today gives storm more time over water Sunday and pushed track potentially more East as well today.

The track/cone may continue to shift especially at the early stage of tropical cyclone development. Work / school (if started some areas) begin in the morning, income becomes a factor in last minute preparedness and ability to evacuate, especially at end of the month, and ability of employer to help allow for prep time. Area businesses may close early to prepare themselves. Things will move quickly this week, have a plan in case things change (what wind speed or storm surge height would you evac from? Where would you go? Did you know that hotels that do not accept pets don't change their policy because you had to evacuate.)
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-27-2023, 05:57 PM
 
7,258 posts, read 4,627,818 times
Reputation: 2105
Sun 27Aug 8pEDT/7pCDT: Winds 45mph(75km/h), drifting ENE 3mph(6km/h), pressure 995mb. No real changes otherwise.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-27-2023, 06:01 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,514 posts, read 75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619


https://twitter.com/JimCantore/statu...TQPdSxxgg&s=19
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-27-2023, 07:30 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,514 posts, read 75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
Idalia is blowing up FAST! Hard to see this not being CAT 2/3 at landfall

There is nothing good happening with Idalia with recent weather model guidance

All signals point to a major hurricane landfall impact in Big Bend of Florida.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
Similar Threads

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top