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Old 09-06-2023, 03:43 PM
 
Location: Florida
7,244 posts, read 7,067,976 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Wow the path looks similar up until Latitude 25N when it starts turning north. I think


https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexp...urricane-path/

Interesting read. Too bad my father is gone or I would ask him about it. He would have lived through that when he was a boy.
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Old 09-06-2023, 06:37 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Latest GFS and Canadian models says its a fish storm.


500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 46.4W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
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Old 09-06-2023, 06:47 PM
 
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Looks like some of the evening models still on same track of continues WNW movement until finally begins to turn when somewhere North of Puerto Rico or Hispaniola early to mid next week. So we should start to see the turn enter NHC's 5 day cone map late tonight or sometime tomorrow.
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Old 09-06-2023, 06:53 PM
 
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Can see the upwelling of cooler waters that Franklin mainly left behind (and some from Idalia afterwards)...that cooler patch SW to N or Bermuda. Otherwise would have been solid rocket fuel from current position to the Gulf stream off VA there.



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Old 09-06-2023, 07:17 PM
 
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Air recon (USAF) scheduled to start Thursday afternoon, NOAA adds planes on Friday.
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Old 09-06-2023, 09:44 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Still Cat 1 but pressure down a bit. I think next 24hrs we'll see the beast

1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY...
...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS LIKELY TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 47.7W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
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Old 09-07-2023, 04:54 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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All models (GFS, Euro, Canadian) showing its just going to recurve without a hit.

Maine and Eastern Canada still need to keep an eye on it but I'm feeling better it's not a Mid Atlantic or Northeast hit. Still will keep 1 eye open on it

Here's the Latest Euro model and what it shows. Still too close for comfort but that move North then NorthEast at Longitude 70W is nice to see


Last edited by Cambium; 09-07-2023 at 05:03 AM..
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Old 09-07-2023, 05:09 AM
 
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Microwave pass shows we have a core in Lee, so additional strengthening likely as we go through the day. Air recon will be sampling storm and atmosphere ahead / around it for better model inputs late today for overnight or early Friday morning model runs.

5aEDT Thurs 7Sept Satellite estimated winds 80mph(130km/h), moving WNW 13mph(20km/h), pressure 989mb. NHC has it peaking with intensity Sat/Sun at 155mph and some weakening thereafter for Mon/Tues to 145mph and 130mph respectively.



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Old 09-07-2023, 09:03 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Lee becomes a Cat 2

1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...LARGE SWELLS LIKELY TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 50.0W
ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
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Old 09-07-2023, 10:12 AM
 
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NHC's 11a update with that rapidly intensifying line...their forecast is for CAT4 130mph by tonight! Eye quickly popping out on satellite now.


Really tight agreement in the models on track until North of Puerto Rico in 5-ish days, then some turn North right away, others later, and a few track a little more West before a turn more North.
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