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Old 09-07-2023, 08:59 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 52.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 928 mb
(27.41 inches).
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Old 09-07-2023, 09:24 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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Before 1970 there was no Satellite
Before 1940 there were no flights

So of course you would expect these to happen more now. We're measuring with precise instruments. Waters ARE warmer but they also were in the 1800s too and you can guarantee there were big intensifying storms then too.

Hurricane Lee has intensified by 80 mph in the past 24 hours. Six other Atlantic hurricanes in satellite era have intensified by 80+ mph in 24 hours:

Wilma (2005), Felix (2007), Ike (2008), Matthew (2016), Maria (2017), Eta (2020)
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Old 09-07-2023, 10:58 PM
 
Location: Central New Jersey & British Columbia
855 posts, read 771,190 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Before 1970 there was no Satellite
Before 1940 there were no flights

So of course you would expect these to happen more now. We're measuring with precise instruments. Waters ARE warmer but they also were in the 1800s too and you can guarantee there were big intensifying storms then too.

Hurricane Lee has intensified by 80 mph in the past 24 hours. Six other Atlantic hurricanes in satellite era have intensified by 80+ mph in 24 hours:

Wilma (2005), Felix (2007), Ike (2008), Matthew (2016), Maria (2017), Eta (2020)
Wait, how do you know water temps were warmer than normal in the 1800s too? That far back we’re talking Little Ice Age. With greenhouse gases at the levels they are now, expect further rapid warming of waters and more powerful storms like this one. Of course there have been plenty of storms before as powerful as Lee, but statistically they are becoming more common and will continue to as the oceans absorb more heat.
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Old 09-08-2023, 05:14 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unobtainium View Post
Wait, how do you know water temps were warmer than normal in the 1800s too? That far back we’re talking Little Ice Age. With greenhouse gases at the levels they are now, expect further rapid warming of waters and more powerful storms like this one. Of course there have been plenty of storms before as powerful as Lee, but statistically they are becoming more common and will continue to as the oceans absorb more heat.
Whoops, typo, thanks. Not 1800s, I meant 1000-2000 yrs ago. Just posted a new thread about it to not go off topic here
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Old 09-08-2023, 05:18 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floridarebel View Post
It'll recurve or brush New England perhaps but all hype so far. Definitely won't hit FL. Going north of the Herbert box.
You think it's been dry this summer just wait till next week when we get the sinking air.
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Old 09-08-2023, 06:20 AM
 
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That was an INCREDIBLE rapid intensification of Lee yesterday into last night!

At sunrise around 7aEDT/AST-ish Lee started showing signs of structural changes. Likely ERC (eyewall replacement cycle) coming after that rapid rise and/or possibly some wind shear on the north side getting some mid to upper level dry air too close. But on water vapor the core looked intact still and air recon just before then still measured pressure in the upper 920's mb (pressure falls = winds rise, pressure steady = winds steady, pressure rises = winds fall, there can be up to a few hour delay with that). Tiny eye...those can be more prone to rapid rise/fall in wind speeds as well.

With that last air recon pass near sunrise winds were around 155mph, so borderline Cat4/5 perhaps unless they saw with onboard radar any stronger areas than they measured nearby.

No turn on the NHC cone map yet. You'll notice the day 5 position is still about the same spot, North of Puerto Rico / Hispaniola. So the storm movement speed has been ever so slowly slowing down in predicted path, thus the five day 'cone' just hasn't reached the turn point yet per models which is around that last day 5 marker. So we're close to seeing the 'turn' in the official cone, just movement speed change keeps delaying that. Don't want too much of a delay since that changes things downstream. But should turn up around the outter edge of the High pressure in Atlantic.
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Old 09-08-2023, 06:40 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
That was an INCREDIBLE rapid intensification of Lee yesterday into last night!.
Definitely. And now Hurricane Hunters finding pressure up to 941mb, which is 13mb higher than the last pass. The 20-25kt of wind shear this morning is causing some weakening.
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Old 09-08-2023, 06:43 AM
 
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830aEDT/AST Friday: We have 2 air recon planes in storm now. Looks like pressure up to around 940mb, winds around 140+mph at surface.

Here are some overnight pics the after midnight crew took when was stronger:





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Old 09-08-2023, 07:22 AM
 
Location: Northern Virginia
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If Lee makes landfall at all, it's probably in Canada and by that point it's basically going to be a hell of an extratropical storm (which won't stop the media from calling it a hurricane).
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Old 09-08-2023, 08:19 AM
 
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Fri 10aEDT air recon with some serious drops in altitude every time they enter the eye…drops in the ranges of 550m-700m (1,800 to 2,300ft) drops! Pressure appears holding around 940ish mb. Winds all over the place, likely as hot towers of tstrms rotate around trying to rebuild with surface winds 145ish to 160mph per data. Last few frames of IR satellite looks like it may finally have a solid ring around core again. But we’ll see. Wind shear is affecting storm strength/structure this morning.

This is more just interesting FYI watching than anything of a strong storm fluctuate in short time span since we have air recon to record what’s happening.

Last edited by Psychoma; 09-08-2023 at 08:27 AM..
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