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Old 09-08-2023, 09:02 AM
 
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Fri 11aEDT winds 155mph(250km/h), moving WNW 13mph(20km/h), pressure 942mb. Cat4. Five day cone map has the slightest hint of a turn added now.
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Old 09-08-2023, 10:25 AM
 
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We hear a lot about how the public media exaggerates and often overhypes storms. Remember this classic?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tocuyJ1Fu7U

Exaggeration seems to be the case this week, as some popular media imply that NJ, NY, and MA will be directly slammed by a Cat 5 Hurricane Lee, even though the forecasts currently predict it will diminish in intensity and stay well out to sea for the U.S. (Canada still needs to prepare for possible impact from this storm, and container ship crews will be impacted.)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12494853/hurricane-lee-category-5-path-Boston-new-york.html

I guess, at this point in time, a US impact scenario is not 100% impossible, but wasn't Hurricane Sandy's last-minute westward hook caused by an unexpected kink in the jet stream? Unlike then, we are currently in a positive NAO phase, which tends to push storms out into the Atlantic.

When a really big hurricane strikes, many people who mistakenly stayed in the impacted areas tell interviewers that they thought the warnings were exaggerated as usual. I think weather enthusiasts who follow the models and the data well in advance can tell the likelihood of dangerous impact, but how is a member of the general public to understand the difference between revenue-seeking hyped hysterics and actual warnings that should be taken seriously?
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Old 09-08-2023, 12:13 PM
 
Location: Central New Jersey & British Columbia
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I don’t follow a lot of media but I check the NYT most mornings and their coverage of Lee has been very good. Front paragraph of every article notes that people are panicking on social media despite no likelihood at this point of it hitting the US East Coast. Maybe other news orgs are being more sensational, it really varies.

That said, if I were in Nova Scotia or Maine I’d be a little concerned about current GFS runs. But a lot can change.
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Old 09-08-2023, 02:43 PM
 
Location: Everywhere.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unobtainium View Post
I don’t follow a lot of media but I check the NYT most mornings and their coverage of Lee has been very good. Front paragraph of every article notes that people are panicking on social media despite no likelihood at this point of it hitting the US East Coast. Maybe other news orgs are being more sensational, it really varies.
People just hear the “CAT 5” part of it, and they panic. They usually don’t pay attention to the forecast track, model runs, etc.
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Old 09-08-2023, 05:11 PM
 
Location: Northern Virginia
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This is the kind of stuff you can say is sensationalistic scaremongering: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...icane-Lee.html


Linking Lee to a totally unrelated thunderstorm today and vastly exaggerating the chance of Lee hitting anywhere near NYC.
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Old 09-08-2023, 06:19 PM
 
Location: Central New Jersey & British Columbia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Veritas Vincit View Post
This is the kind of stuff you can say is sensationalistic scaremongering: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...icane-Lee.html


Linking Lee to a totally unrelated thunderstorm today and vastly exaggerating the chance of Lee hitting anywhere near NYC.
Daily Mail is absolute trash.

I have to say the comments I see on Facebook about this storm are incredibly uninformed though. Most of the public is just incapable of finding reliable sources and understanding what they're saying. Kind of sad.
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Old 09-08-2023, 08:34 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Lee will not affect the U.S but Im still watching for Nova Scotia maybe Maine

Ome thing is for sure, its gonna turn soon


https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/s...vGRDcYWaw&s=19
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Old 09-09-2023, 04:35 AM
 
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Another nothing burger.
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Old 09-09-2023, 05:51 AM
 
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Sat 5aEDT/AST winds 115mph(185km/h), moving WNW 12mph(19km/h), pressure 963mb. Good outflow, but still affected by some wind shear. Core looks interesting on satellite as it's rapidly spinning but storms can't seem to fire up and build around it. It's going to look bad due to shear, but if can protect it's core it can recover, if not remains weaker. NHC has weaker next 24hrs, then restrengthening to Cat4 before steady weakening trend begins as starts turn.

Hurricane force winds extend up to 30miles(45km) from center, TS winds up to 175miles(280km).

Regardless of where Lee tracks larger waves are likely to reach Northern Caribbean islands, Bahamas and US east coast in the coming days. Rip currents will be present.

Models 0z run(early morning/overnight run. The morning/mid-morning 06z runs will be coming in soon but as of this post 0z is ready):
Euro main: Turns North late Wednesday(+4days out), just West but near Bermuda Saturday(+7days out), near but just South of Newfoundland Tuesday(+10 days out).

Euro ensembles(models that make up the Euro): Turn North Wed, near/West of Bermuda, landfall Maine, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland or turns out to sea. Disagreement in timing, some racing North, others a couple days behind slower.

GFS main: Has near/West of Bermuda Thursday/Friday, landfall Maine / Nova Scotia.

GFS ensembles(models that make up the GFS): Turn North Wed, near/West of Bermuda, landfall Long Island to Newfoundland with vast majority into Nova Scotia. Disagreement in timing, some racing North, others a couple days behind slower.

Canadian model: Nova Scotia.

Several models just don't go out that far in time. Several keep near but West of Bermuda eventually. Keep in mind, this will be a storm to watch for a long time still. Things can change or become more confident in time.
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Old 09-09-2023, 06:34 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Hurricane Lee was a short lived Cat 5. So if the rapid intensification was because of Climate Change we should thank Climate Change for the rapid weakening too. Or its only used as an excuse for bad records and extreme things.

Currently a Cat 3 and some more weakening coming before it regains strength..

Wednesday morning it starts to make the turn.

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