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Old 10-03-2023, 07:10 AM
 
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98e in the Eastern Pacific becomes TS Lidia about 530miles(850km) SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving WNW 9mph(15km/h), pressure 1006mb. NHC with slow moving system eventually becoming a hurricane with a turn West out to sea late this week into the weekend. Models still split on if makes that turn fully or if turns back though.
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Old 10-04-2023, 09:27 AM
 
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Wed 3-Oct 11aEDT/8aPDT: Estimated winds 50mph(85km/h), moving NNW 8mph(13km/h), pressure 1001mb.
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Old 10-04-2023, 06:51 PM
 
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Wed 3-Oct 5pEDT/2pPDT: Estimated winds 50mph(85km/h), moving NNW 7mph(11km/h), pressure 1001mb. Center about about 400miles(645km) SW of Manzanillo, Mexico. Wind shear keeping system from any quick organization.



Euro and GFS now have the system performing a loop and coming back towards S Baja or mainland Mexico end of next week. Too soon to know if that will be the case but both going with it for now.
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Old 10-05-2023, 07:42 PM
 
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Thurs 5-Oct 5pEDT/2pPDT: Estimated winds 60mph(95km/h), moving NW 3mph(6km/h), pressure 999mb. Center about about 425miles(680km) WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

NHC cone map now has it showing the pivot back around.
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Old 10-06-2023, 04:12 AM
 
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Fri 6-Oct 5aEDT/2aPDT: Estimated winds 70mph(110km/h), moving WNW 5mph(7km/h), pressure 990mb. Center about about 440miles(705km) WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.
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Old 10-07-2023, 07:07 PM
 
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Sat 7-Oct 5pEDT/2pPDT: Estimated winds 65mph(100km/h), moving W 3mph(6km/h), pressure 995mb. Center about about 575miles(925km) WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, about 500miles(805km) SSW of S tip of Baja peninsula.

NHC with hurricane by Monday as finds a small pocket of little wind shear, then wind shear may pick back up just as approaches land around mid-week.

Euro with landfall between Puerto Vallarta and Tepic to the North as rapidly weakening hurricane to tropical storm Wednesday. GFS has much stronger hurricane that weakens as comes ashore Tuesday.
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Old 10-09-2023, 08:56 AM
 
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Mon 9-Oct 11aEDT/8aPDT: Estimated winds 65mph(100km/h), moving NE 6mph(9km/h), pressure 992mb. Center about 50miles(80km) SW of Socorro island, about 470miles(755km) SW of San Blas, Mexico (around 50milees N of Puerto Vallarta).


Hurricane and TS Warnings for the Mexican coast. Will have a small window to strengthen just before landfall. NHC now with 100mph right before landfall, rapid weakening once onshore.
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Old 10-09-2023, 06:32 PM
 
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Mon 9-Oct 8pEDT/5pPDT: Winds 70ph(110km/h), moving ENE 9mph(15km/h), pressure 985mb. Center about 40miles(64km) SE of Socorro island, about 355miles(570km) SW of Las Islas Marias, Mexico.
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Old 10-10-2023, 07:26 PM
 
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Lidia took full advantage of the small window to strengthen going from Tropical Storm Monday evening to 140mph cat4 hurricane this afternoon. Landfall about 35miles (55km) SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico not too long ago. Hurricane winds extend up to 30miles(45km) from center as of 8pEDT. Should rapidly weaken as moves inland but tremendous amounts of rain will continue.
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Old 10-11-2023, 05:21 AM
 
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Lidia has dissipated quickly as hits the higher mountains of SW Mexico. Remnants are very rapidly moving cross Mexico and bringing additional moisture into the Gulf of Mexico / S Texas. An NHC advisory archive: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/LIDIA.shtml?
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