Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 05-24-2024, 07:04 AM
 
7,298 posts, read 4,723,525 times
Reputation: 2137

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brucifer View Post
Brucifer image
Can clearly see the loop current in that one (between Yucatan & FL, flowing up around FL).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 05-24-2024, 07:48 AM
 
7,298 posts, read 4,723,525 times
Reputation: 2137
NOAA/NHC released their first numbers this week:
Atlantic(they update again in August):
Abv avg season
17-25 named storms
8-13 hurricanes
4-7 of those Cat3+
Reasoning: warm waters, La Niña, slower trade winds, less wind shear, increased African monsoon (more tropical waves coming off).

E Pac:
Below avg season
11-17 named storms
4-9 hurricanes
1-4 of those Cat3+
Reasoning: mainly La Niña

C Pacific:
Below avg season
1-4 named storms
Reasoning: La Niña & increased wind shear

Seasonal predictions are just general ideas (ie: conditions more or less favorable overall) but don’t tell us how land impacts will be (but more storms in more favorable conditions would indicate higher chances then non-favorable seasonal conditions).

Active or inactive starts of season don’t tell us how later in season will be (ie: quiet now doesn’t mean quiet or busy later), just adds to total count of early really, there’s no direct correlation.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-01-2024, 07:28 PM
 
7,298 posts, read 4,723,525 times
Reputation: 2137
Tis now the season. Atlantic / Central Pacific hurricane season begins today (1June) and day 18 of East Pacific season where a low 10% chance of development lays South of Mexico.

Atlantic still quiet - May have a pocket of overall more favorable general conditions in about 2 weeks - we’ll see if anything takes advantage of that or not.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-07-2024, 05:31 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,736 posts, read 76,326,354 times
Reputation: 16730
Well, 1 piece of the big puzzle is in place, gotta have more than 1 piece though

Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-09-2024, 06:19 AM
 
7,298 posts, read 4,723,525 times
Reputation: 2137
With moisture coming up into portions of the Gulf later this week into next (except LKJ1988‘s house ), will watch if any sloppy tropical Low’s try to form. Typical for June. For now, just increased rain chances, mostly for FL region this week.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-09-2024, 07:23 AM
 
30,866 posts, read 21,747,499 times
Reputation: 12181
Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
With moisture coming up into portions of the Gulf later this week into next (except LKJ1988‘s house ), will watch if any sloppy tropical Low’s try to form. Typical for June. For now, just increased rain chances, mostly for FL region this week.
I am gonna kill myself if the rain misses me this time. Pray we get a real TS and it gets stuck like Debbie did and i get 11" in 5 hours.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-10-2024, 06:27 PM
 
7,298 posts, read 4,723,525 times
Reputation: 2137
CAG (Central American Gyre - General counter clockwise spin of weather parked over Central America) developing over Central America region. Will increase heavy rains across countries there and help feed additional moisture into Gulf/FL region. Can occasionally spit out tropical systems either side. Causes additional ghost storms in models too. So be aware when viewing models - look for more consistent signals (such as similar locations, etc).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-11-2024, 06:47 AM
 
7,298 posts, read 4,723,525 times
Reputation: 2137
Tue 11Jun: a trough roughly stretching from Yucatán peninsula to N FL eventually moves off SE US - NHC then gives it 20% chance of tropical development later this week into the weekend as generally moves NNE / NE.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-12-2024, 06:56 PM
 
7,298 posts, read 4,723,525 times
Reputation: 2137
12Jun Wed 8pEDT:
Atlantic:
-90L helping dump showers over FL. NHC 20% tropical development chance. Best chance will be near the Carolina coast Thurs/Fri. Then whatever is left may help increase rains Nova Scotia / Newfoundland.
-Models continue to support possible tropical system / blob scattered showers Bay of Campeche / W Gulf of Mexico early through mid next week, moves generally W/WNW bringing rain chances Mexico / TX. NHC 30% chance.

EPAC: Area along Mexico / Guatemala 20% chance this weekend into early next week. Increased rains either way.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-14-2024, 07:11 PM
 
7,298 posts, read 4,723,525 times
Reputation: 2137
14Jun Fri 8pEDT
E Pac: Just scattered rains along S Mexico coast region.
Atl:
-90L off NC coast merging with cold front. That's about it for this one.
Trough still drapes across S FL so tropical moisture train continues but likely less than before.
-Large broad Low to move into Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf), NHC 50% chance tropical development next week. Broad nature likely means slower to organize. Regardless of development, tropical moisture may stream up into TX/LA coast and good portion of Mexico.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top