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Old 08-13-2008, 07:56 PM
 
21 posts, read 80,756 times
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Hey folks!

We are entering the time of year when the tropics really start to crank!

Currently, the NHC (National Hurricane Center) is highlighting two areas for possible development. Currently, the area just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, is the area of most concern.


The area circled in orange is the disturbance I am talking about.

Here is a satellite image:


It looks fairly decent at this time, and I expect further development. The only thing keeping this disturbance from developing more rapidly is strong wind shear. The shear can tear these systems apart. I expect the disturbance to make it through the shear, and then develop.

Residents in Florida should monitor this system, as if it does indeed survive the strong shear, it will be moving towards you.
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Old 08-13-2008, 08:03 PM
 
Location: still in exile......
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welcome to the forum twister4999

yeah, if that tropical storm brakes that wind shear (which is what caused a dry day today here in South FL), it could be headed right at us, and with the waters as warm as they are, it could develop pretty quickly...we'll see!!!
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Old 08-13-2008, 09:30 PM
 
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Thanks for the welcome!

If the disturbance can survive the shear, development would be likely.
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Old 08-13-2008, 09:34 PM
 
Location: still in exile......
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no problem


If it gets here, It'll be mostly be a Cat 1.
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Old 08-14-2008, 10:38 AM
 
Location: So. Dak.
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Great topic and welcome, Twister. I love watching the Atlantic this time of year. I think the small canes are kind of exciting. Not really into those big destructive ones that are dangerous to people and cause major damage though.
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Old 08-14-2008, 04:23 PM
 
Location: Invercargill, New Zealand
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Interesting piece of Jeff Masters blog from wunderground.com:

The forecast for 92L
Dry air will probably not be a problem for 92L any more. Wind shear is also not likely to be a problem--shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots the next five days, and may drop to near zero on Friday. Furthermore, an upper-level anticyclone is setting up on top of 92L. This will allow the air lifted from the surface by the storm's heavy thunderstorms to be efficiently spewed out to the sides, ventilating the storm and promoting even more intense thunderstorm activity.

I give 92L a high (>80% chance) of becoming a tropical storm by Friday afternoon. The latest (8 am EDT) model runs all foresee a track for 92L very close to Puerto Rico and the north coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti Friday through Sunday. Heavy rains will be the main threat to these places, with 4-8 inches likely. Isolated higher amounts of up to 12 inches may fall in the mountains, triggering life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

In the longer term, an encounter with the rugged terrain of eastern Cuba is forecast by most of the models for Sunday. Passage over the rough terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba could severely disrupt or even destroy 92L. If the storm survives, it could intensify quickly into a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane, once it emerges over the warm waters of the Bahamas or Florida Straits. The eventual strength is highly dependent on the track of 92L, with a longer track over water giving it a greater chance of becoming a hurricane. The long range track of 92L is highly uncertain. Take your pick of 8 am EDT model runs:

GFDL, HWRF: parallel to the east coast of Florida, 50-100 miles offshore
UKMET: Through South Florida into the Gulf of Mexico
NOGAPS: Through the Florida Keys, then northwest towards the Alabama/Mississippi coast
GFS: Through the Bahamas, then north towards North Carolina
Canadian: Across Cuba and through the Cayman Islands, then north in the Gulf of Mexico
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Old 08-14-2008, 05:51 PM
 
Location: Eastern NC
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As Jeff Masters says, it will depend on the track. Staying to close to land will not give it much chance to develope into a hurricane but if it can stay clear of the islands then watch out east coast.
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Old 08-15-2008, 03:51 PM
 
Location: God's Country
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It's now Tropical Storm Fay
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Old 08-15-2008, 11:00 PM
 
Location: Middle Tennessee
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I LOVE NORTH CAROLINA View Post
It's now Tropical Storm Fay
A lady that bares watching but we need the rain too. Maybe she will be good to us with some cooler air and a few inches of much needed water.
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Old 08-15-2008, 11:02 PM
 
Location: Middle Tennessee
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dxiweodwo View Post
no problem


If it gets here, It'll be mostly be a Cat 1.
Wasn't Wilma a cat 1?
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