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As I'm about to be potentially personally affected by this ugly damn ol'-spinster-sounding witch and she was just downgraded to a tropical depression, I've been wondering what the odds are of a tropical storm or depression regaining strength back to being a hurricane...
Oh, crapola... I just found my answers... On the other hand, nobody was "declaring" weather in 1906 or 1908, so I'm not sure how dependable this history is...
Looking at the past to predict the future
Perhaps the best way to estimate the chances of Ida surviving the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras is to look at past storms that have followed similar tracks, to see if they dissipated or not. History favors Ida surviving the crossing. The two best analogue storms occurred in 1906 and 1908. Hurricane Eight of October 10, 1906, hit Nicaragua as a Category 3 hurricane, spent two days over land, weakening to a tropical storm, then emerged into the Western Caribbean and re-intensified into a Category 3 hurricane that hit Cuba and South Florida. On the other hand, Hurricane Nine of October 18, 1908, which hit Nicaragua as a Category 2 hurricane, dissipated after spending 1.5 days over land. Three other weaker systems have followed paths similar to Ida's, and all survived the crossing and re-intensified once over the Western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gert of 1993 hit as a 40 mph tropical storm, spent two days over land, and survived to re-intensify to a tropical storm before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Alma of June 1996 hit Nicaragua as a tropical depression, spent two days over land, and survived. Alma later intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Six of 1940 hit Nicaragua as a 45 mph tropical storm, spent 1.5 days over land, and survived the crossing. So, of the five storms to follow a path similar to Ida's projected path, four survived to re-intensify over the Western Caribbean.
However, I saw a map on another site showing all November storms originating around Nicaragua and only one path was close to the Yucatan Peninsula (which happens to be my concern). None of the hurricanes above happened in November! Man, it's almost always over by the end of October... just not when I decide to take a chance in November! And it's been such a quiet season, too! Somebody I know just got back from a cruise in October (the worst of times) and sure enough nothing happened! Some people are just happy-go-lucky...
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT A SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM...FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO...RECENTLY REPORTED A ONE-MINUTE
SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH...91 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AN OBSERVATION FROM
NOAA BUOY 42056 IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
Remember, a hurricane is not a point on a map. All of central florida is in the projected cone.
Looks like it will be gone by Friday, but you never know.
Some models have the remants hanging around for many days now. No one really knows what will happen.
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and she was just downgraded to a tropical depression, I've been wondering what the odds are of a tropical storm or depression regaining strength back to being a hurricane...
On the other hand, nobody was "declaring" weather in 1906 or 1908, so I'm not sure how dependable this history is...
