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Old 03-10-2007, 07:17 PM
 
Location: Living in Paradise
5,702 posts, read 22,732,721 times
Reputation: 2996

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We like it or not is coming, I do hope that is just like last year and we continue to get a break from mother nature.

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, Dr. William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters.

Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Dr. Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 named storms, with 4 to 8 of those reaching hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.

On December 8, 2006, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2007 season, predicting above-average activity (14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of Category 3 or higher)

2007 Hurricane Names:

* Andrea (unused)
* Barry (unused)
* Chantal (unused)
* Dean (unused)
* Erin (unused)
* Felix (unused)
* Gabrielle (unused)



* Humberto (unused)
* Ingrid (unused)
* Jerry (unused)
* Karen (unused)
* Lorenzo (unused)
* Melissa (unused)
* Noel (unused)



* Olga (unused)
* Pablo (unused)
* Rebekah (unused)
* Sebastien (unused)
* Tanya (unused)
* Van (unused)
* Wendy (unused)
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Old 03-10-2007, 09:17 PM
 
17,288 posts, read 26,776,852 times
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I remember a lot of these storm names from years ago.

Tropical Storm Jerry, Hurricane Erin (I remember walking around outside during THAT one).... Chantal, Humberto.....
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Old 03-10-2007, 09:22 PM
 
Location: So. Dak.
13,495 posts, read 34,914,322 times
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Do either of you know right off hand how accurate they've been in their past predictions. I remember that last year someone predicted a very active season, but have no idea what the prediction was from Colorado State.
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Old 03-10-2007, 11:15 PM
 
Location: Riverview, Home of the Yankees
37 posts, read 112,952 times
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They predicted at least 7 major hurricanes were to come through in 2006, central Florida did not get any at all.
You can't rely on weather channels to predict hurricanes, you are better off buying a crystal ball on Ebay.
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Old 03-11-2007, 08:27 AM
 
Location: The Conterminous United States
22,573 posts, read 49,146,839 times
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I'm a huge weather buff, especially concerning hurricanes. I'm on the national weather service website all the time. No matter what they say, they cannot predict hurricanes this far in advance.
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Old 03-11-2007, 08:34 AM
 
15,835 posts, read 33,173,616 times
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I saw a website for a popular psychic "Nikki - psychic to the stars" with a lot of predictions of all kinds. For weather this year she predicts a large hurricane to hit and wipe out a good portion of Miami - I guess that could be good or bad depending where one lives and point of view...
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Old 03-11-2007, 08:36 AM
 
2,313 posts, read 2,590,364 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littlelovemuffin View Post
They predicted at least 7 major hurricanes were to come through in 2006, central Florida did not get any at all.
You can't rely on weather channels to predict hurricanes, you are better off buying a crystal ball on Ebay.
I think last year there were 10 storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major storms. It just happened conditions turned them north and out to sea but they were there and all it would have taken was conditions to steer them elsewhere. The storms form every year and conditions determine where they go. Don't pretend there were no storms last year just because one didn't hit your house. We could just as easily have a mild year and every storm cross Florida, you just never know.
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Old 03-11-2007, 08:50 AM
 
Location: WPB, FL. Dreaming of Oil city, PA
2,909 posts, read 13,262,825 times
Reputation: 998
Quote:
Originally Posted by gypsychic View Post
I saw a website for a popular psychic "Nikki - psychic to the stars" with a lot of predictions of all kinds. For weather this year she predicts a large hurricane to hit and wipe out a good portion of Miami - I guess that could be good or bad depending where one lives and point of view...

Tallrick would be sadistically thrilled at other's misery. Key Largo would probably get some of the pummeling too and house prices will drop. I will pray for Elfyum
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Old 03-11-2007, 09:10 AM
 
Location: Living in Paradise
5,702 posts, read 22,732,721 times
Reputation: 2996
Is all based on previous historical data, years of tracking hurricane paths, and mother nature desires. NHC also track their own error trends

(Last update: 22 May 2006)

This section contains information on NHC forecast errors over the years. The verifications below are based on the NHC best track database as of 15 May 2006, and, except as noted, follow the verification procedures given in Section 2. All verifications in this section include subtropical systems, and are homogeneous with the best track CLIPER5 and SHIFOR5 models. Because forecasts for non-developing depressions are not available in digital form prior to 1989, verifications that include years before 1989 are given for tropical storms and hurricanes only.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/OFCL_ATL_trk_error_trend_noTDs.gif (broken link)

4. Official long-term mean errors and distributions

(Last update: 22 May 2006)

Due to the natural volatility in tropical cyclone track characteristics, annual errors can vary significantly from year to year. For example, years dominated by tracks through the low latitude easterly trade winds typically have relatively small annual errors. Conversely, a relatively large number of forecasts in the mid-latitude westerlies (as can occur during El Niño years) can lead to larger errors. Consequently, representative or stable error characteristics must be obtained using a longer period of record.

Traditionally, NHC has considered 10 years to be a representative period of record, however, there are now reasons to use a shorter period. Because of the significant reduction in track error that has occurred in recent years, 10-year averages no longer reflect the current state of the art. Further, the increase in tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin allows for more stable statistics over shorter periods. For most purposes, therefore, NHC is now using 5-year averages to define its long-term forecast error characteristics. Average errors for both the last 5 and 10 year periods are given below. These verifications follow the procedures given above in Section 2 (i.e., they include the subtropical and depression stages) and the sample is homogeneous with the operational CLIPER5 and SHIFOR5 models.
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