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Old 12-09-2007, 07:14 PM
 
2,143 posts, read 8,016,780 times
Reputation: 1156

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Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

000
WONT41 KNHC 092158
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH IN THIS AREA TO
SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
ESPECIALLY PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE EASTERN BAHAMAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
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Old 12-14-2007, 06:14 AM
 
Location: NOVA
198 posts, read 958,006 times
Reputation: 101
Olga....Officially written off by the NHC. The visible sat pics still show the low level circulation which is slowly dying. If anything, her moisture may help parts of florida get some much needed rain when the cold front comes down tomorow....


000
WTNT42 KNHC 130233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1000 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

ONCE AGAIN...I HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TERMINATE ANOTHER TROPICAL
CYCLONE THIS SEASON. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM PILON CUBA
SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL ESTABLISHED...BUT THERE HAS NOT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR
SO. THE CYCLONE IS INITIALIZED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON...PERHAPS AS WE SPEAK.
THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT SOME CONVECTION REDEVELOPS
INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE REMNANT LOW
MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOO STRONG TO ALLOW REINTENSIFICATION...FAMOUS LAST WORDS. THE
LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN 3
DAYS OR SO OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OLGA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 18.9N 77.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 80.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 14/0000Z 19.0N 82.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/1200Z 19.5N 83.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 15/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 16/0000Z 22.0N 86.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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