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Old 05-26-2007, 11:25 AM
 
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL
518 posts, read 2,050,986 times
Reputation: 265

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Many great hurricane preparedness tips have been posted on the Florida board thanks to sunrico and others. I'd like to add two Web sites that I've found to be excellent information sources when there's a possible hurricane threat. These Web sites will give you considerably more information than your local TV news and can help you be proactive in preparing for a hurricane landfall.

The first is the National Hurricane Center's Web site, nhc.noaa.gov. It offers tropical weather predictions and discussions that indicate whether storm formation is imminent. When a tropical system forms and intensifies, it provides the NHC's projected three- and five-day tracks and intensity forecasts (including the "cone of error" and "skinny black line"). Advisories are updated every six hours and are accompanied by forecast discussions. The site also provides the latest in watches and warnings when a storm is approaching.

The second Web site is the Central Florida Hurricane Center, flhurricane.com. It provides the same facts as the NHC's site -- with a lot of opinion thrown in. The site is based in Melbourne and moderated by a group of meterologists, and there also are message boards for those with an interest in tropical weather. Some of the posters seem to crave mayhem and tend to be a bit over the top in predicting storm formation, but if you can get past that there are a lot of good resources and insights. For example, when the storm that would turn into Katrina was still a tropical depression in the Bahamas, the site's meterologists accurately forecast its eventual, horrific impact on the Gulf coast.

Finally, one tip for Florida newcomers (and for longtime residents, it bears repeating): When a hurricane threatens Florida, do not focus on the "skinny black line" projecting the track. The reasons are twofold: First, forecasts are not infallible and the track and intensity can change at the last minute (it happened in 2004 with Charley, with disastrous consequences for Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda and points northeast). Second, even if a storm does not pass directly over your area, sustained hurricane-force winds can extend many miles from the center (which was the case with Wilma in Broward and Miami-Dade). If you live in, say, Daytona Beach and the black line takes a storm over Fort Lauderdale, do not be lulled into complacency -- prepare for the worst, because the margin of error can be that big.

Hope all this helps -- 20 years of living in South Florida have taught me that the phrase "too much information" doesn't apply when it comes to hurricane preparation.
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Old 05-26-2007, 02:24 PM
 
Location: Missouri
109 posts, read 367,157 times
Reputation: 24
Default Good on ya mate!

Good advise Chisoxfan. I'm familiar with the NOAA site but not the FLHURRICANE.COM. Again thanks.

Jeff
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Old 05-26-2007, 09:39 PM
 
262 posts, read 869,925 times
Reputation: 79
Good advice, Chisoxfan. Especially the warning not to go by the black line. Even the Cone of Error isn't a sure way of knowing where the hurricane will eventually landfall.

Glad you mentioned the Central FL Hurricane website. Lots of good information on there. Also, Storm2k is a good one, many good discussions, and there are at lease 2 Profession mets who join in. Here's the line:

STORM2K :: Index
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Old 05-26-2007, 10:03 PM
 
Location: The Conterminous United States
22,572 posts, read 49,136,717 times
Reputation: 13470
Well, Hurricane Charley was not pretty due south of it either. That picture that they show over and over on the national news whenever they mention hurricanes is of the Fort Myers post office's roof being ripped off during Charley.

I've done this before, but it is worth doing, again.

Most important, during an actual storm or hurricane, this site will show you the actual track and predictions.

National Hurricane Center

Second is great if you want to watch them go off the coast of Africa, or South America, and through the Caribbean. By the way, the ITCZ is going north and things are getting interesting, already. We just need that sea-surface temperature to heat up more and we are off and running.

Hurricane Sector - Satellite Imagery

For the meteorological geeks like me, great blog:

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground
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Old 05-27-2007, 07:45 AM
 
262 posts, read 869,925 times
Reputation: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by hiknapster View Post
Well, Hurricane Charley was not pretty due south of it either. That picture that they show over and over on the national news whenever they mention hurricanes is of the Fort Myers post office's roof being ripped off during Charley.

I've done this before, but it is worth doing, again.

Most important, during an actual storm or hurricane, this site will show you the actual track and predictions.

National Hurricane Center

Second is great if you want to watch them go off the coast of Africa, or South America, and through the Caribbean. By the way, the ITCZ is going north and things are getting interesting, already. We just need that sea-surface temperature to heat up more and we are off and running.

Hurricane Sector - Satellite Imagery

For the meteorological geeks like me, great blog:

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground
Yes, I really enjoy Jeff Masters' commentary - I always look for his comments. Weather Underground is a great site, with a lot of information for us weather-nuts. I agree that things are starting to look interesting - there's a low that may form in the S/W Carib, it may be a "bear watch."

Not surprising that the damage south of Charlie was so bad. On the gulf side, the area south of storms can take a beating - just the opposite of the east coast, where the damage can be severe to the north of the storm.


Of course, right now, the best thing for us would be a tropical depression that stalls over us and dumps rain - this drought is a killer.
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Old 05-27-2007, 08:47 AM
 
Location: The Conterminous United States
22,572 posts, read 49,136,717 times
Reputation: 13470
It looks like the middle of the country is the only place that is getting rain. Too much really.

It finally rained in Knoxville for the first time last night. We did not have a drop of rain for the entire month of May. Now, we are starting to see fires in the Smokys, too.

All this sun can't be helping the sea surface temperature. Get the steering currents going the right way (and so far, they are, unlike last year) and it will be a recipe for disaster.
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Old 05-27-2007, 04:34 PM
 
262 posts, read 869,925 times
Reputation: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by hiknapster View Post
It looks like the middle of the country is the only place that is getting rain. Too much really.

It finally rained in Knoxville for the first time last night. We did not have a drop of rain for the entire month of May. Now, we are starting to see fires in the Smokys, too.

All this sun can't be helping the sea surface temperature. Get the steering currents going the right way (and so far, they are, unlike last year) and it will be a recipe for disaster.
True - we don't have the protection of El Nino to coax the steering currients away. If anything, this really feels like a La Nina setting up - esp. the drought. Last LN brought us dry weather like this - followed by hurricanes. I know the jury's still out on whether a LN will even form, but I wouldn't be surprised.

Glad you finally got some rain, and hope it continues. Wow - fires in the Smokies, that's scary. Hope it's nowhere near you!
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Old 05-27-2007, 04:39 PM
 
2,141 posts, read 6,482,385 times
Reputation: 589
I like crownweather, it will give you the best of all the top sites. It will also show two models for each storm.

Tropical Weather Information (http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html - broken link)
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Old 05-28-2007, 05:02 AM
 
Location: The Conterminous United States
22,572 posts, read 49,136,717 times
Reputation: 13470
Quote:
Originally Posted by firemed View Post
I like crownweather, it will give you the best of all the top sites. It will also show two models for each storm.

Tropical Weather Information (http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html - broken link)
I just bookmarked that one! Thanks!
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