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Old 03-27-2009, 12:31 PM
 
Location: Southeast Idaho
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The Idaho Falls Metro Area is amongst the nation's leading area's for growth according to KIFI - Idaho Falls, Pocatello, Jackson WY - Weather News Sports-Idaho Falls Metro Area among Nation's Leaders in Growth
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Old 03-27-2009, 08:12 PM
 
Location: In The Outland
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I am happy to live in a town that is shrinking.
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Old 03-27-2009, 09:55 PM
 
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Question Location or Lifestyle: What Do You Think?

About 10 days ago I briefly glanced at necently released census report for Idaho. It is clear right now the big 3 metro areas are: Boise, Coeur 'd Alene, Idaho Falls.

Twin Falls continues to grow as well and several who track matters such as these think Twin will grow more rapidly than Pocatello once metro status has been reached. I tend to agree with that viewpoint.

I hope someone well versed in the difference in metro designation vs. MSA will post further here.

Thanks for the thread, Cleosmom. This provides the opportunity to explain the difference in population counts. I always want to scream when I read the Official City of Idaho Falls webpage number of residents vs. the MSA, most recent census or the estimated numbers.


I'm curious if readers think physical location in a state like Idaho that has such an unusual eastern border, rugged country, designated wilderness lands, limited infrastructure (highways) in some areas, contribute to which cities follow Boise in the census? In other words, location within the state borders. Or, is it more opportunity and lifestyle which have created the census numbers to be where they are for the growing (and shrinking) areas in your opinion?

What do you think?

MSR
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Old 03-28-2009, 01:04 PM
 
Location: Eastern Idaho
634 posts, read 2,194,880 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mtn. States Resident View Post
I hope someone well versed in the difference in metro designation vs. MSA will post further here.

Thanks for the thread, Cleosmom. This provides the opportunity to explain the difference in population counts. I always want to scream when I read the Official City of Idaho Falls webpage number of residents vs. the MSA, most recent census or the estimated numbers.
If remember correctly from seeing this on KIFI the other evening, they declared that the Idaho Falls "area" (which I assumed to mean MSA) included all of Bonneville & Bingham counties. It is this area that ranked #8 on the fastest-growing regions in the US. Of course, this does mean that I (or they) are using the terminology correctly, so if I am mistaken (and it's not MSA), please, someone correct me.

I also found it interesting while quickly perusing that list that there were several areas in UT (Ogden, St. George) that were also up in the top 15 on that list.

A second wave of western migration?
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Old 03-28-2009, 09:57 PM
 
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Lightbulb Northern 4B, Part of 1J, and 8B Counties make up Idaho Falls MSA

Quote:
Originally Posted by breer23 View Post
If remember correctly from seeing this on KIFI the other evening, they declared that the Idaho Falls "area" (which I assumed to mean MSA) included all of Bonneville & Bingham counties. It is this area that ranked #8 on the fastest-growing regions in the US. Of course, this does mean that I (or they) are using the terminology correctly, so if I am mistaken (and it's not MSA), please, someone correct me.

I also found it interesting while quickly perusing that list that there were several areas in UT (Ogden, St. George) that were also up in the top 15 on that list.

A second wave of western migration?
I'll check that list again, breer23, I thought Logan, UT was rated fairly high. I can't personally imagine what would make Ogden that high. St. George has actually slipped a lot, it use to be #1 for quite a while.

My understanding of the Idaho Falls MSA is: PART of Jefferson County (can't tell you where the split occurs) and NORTHERN Binrgham County (essentially the Shelley area). I believe it has something to do with the miles traveled to services etc.

Interesting observation.

MSR
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Old 03-29-2009, 11:32 AM
 
Location: Eastern Idaho
634 posts, read 2,194,880 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mtn. States Resident View Post
I'll check that list again, breer23, I thought Logan, UT was rated fairly high. I can't personally imagine what would make Ogden that high. St. George has actually slipped a lot, it use to be #1 for quite a while.

My understanding of the Idaho Falls MSA is: PART of Jefferson County (can't tell you where the split occurs) and NORTHERN Binrgham County (essentially the Shelley area). I believe it has something to do with the miles traveled to services etc.

Interesting observation.

MSR
You are correct, MSR. It was Logan, not Ogden, UT that was still highly ranked. I think St. George was just below IF.
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Old 03-30-2009, 10:21 AM
 
398 posts, read 430,101 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mtn. States Resident View Post
I'll check that list again, breer23, I thought Logan, UT was rated fairly high. I can't personally imagine what would make Ogden that high. St. George has actually slipped a lot, it use to be #1 for quite a while.

My understanding of the Idaho Falls MSA is: PART of Jefferson County (can't tell you where the split occurs) and NORTHERN Binrgham County (essentially the Shelley area). I believe it has something to do with the miles traveled to services etc.

Interesting observation.

MSR
Well, you have it partially right about the Idaho Falls Metropolitan Statistical Area. The Idaho Falls MSA includes all of Bonneville and Jefferson Counties. This is good for Idaho Falls as Jefferson County was the 8th? fastest growing county in the country last year. The land is "dirt" cheap and is close to both Bonneville and Madison Counties which are both defined as urban areas.

Madison County is defined as a Micropolitan Area, which numbers include Fremont County. If growth continues at it's current pace it is projected that Rexburg will gain Metropolitan Area status within 20 years. That is of course unless the daily commute numbers to Idaho Falls/ Bonneville county reaches 25% before then, it would "technically" be included as part of the Idaho Falls Metro Area, adding 50-60K population to the numbers. These numbers help companies decide on locating their business. An area with high growth % numbers and increased growth projections is a big part of their decisions. That would explain why quite a few companies chose the Salt Lake Area during the early 90s before the East Idaho Area started to boom, as opposed to locating here.

As far as Bingham County, it is included in the Idaho Falls Combined Statistical Area, which basically means that commute % numbers have not reached the 25% mark to be included as part of the metro. Doesn't make much sense but that is the Census Bereau for you! More than likely with all the growth in Shelley and Northern Bingham County, and new job growth in Bonneville County (Areva, possibly others) the commute percentage should be enough for inclusion into the Idaho Falls MSA more than likely by the 2020 census. Bad news for Pocatello, Bingham County is really their only hope to have significant gains to pad their metro numbers, but is going to end up going to the IFMSA sooner than later.

Another confusing aspect of our area is Butte County where the INL facilities are located. When you considers that people commute out of Bonneville County to work in Butte County, that basically keeps Butte County out of the MSA. (Census Bereau definitions again.) Maybe we can get Crapo or Simpson to lobby support for inclusion!

I hope I explained this properly, I have done some research and had conversations with people who understand. Maybe I passed on some good knowledge. My best guestimate is that by the 2030 Census, the Idaho Falls Metro Area will include 8B, 1J, 4B, and possibly 1M, the overall population numbers for the MSA should be close to 240-250K. I would imagine that the population of Idaho Falls proper should be close to 70-75K.

Last edited by IFGuy; 03-30-2009 at 10:26 AM.. Reason: bad grammar, spelling
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Old 04-01-2009, 12:25 AM
 
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Talking I Think I'm Still Confused

Quote:
Originally Posted by IFGuy View Post
Well, you have it partially right about the Idaho Falls Metropolitan Statistical Area. The Idaho Falls MSA includes all of Bonneville and Jefferson Counties. This is good for Idaho Falls as Jefferson County was the 8th? fastest growing county in the country last year. The land is "dirt" cheap and is close to both Bonneville and Madison Counties which are both defined as urban areas.

Madison County is defined as a Micropolitan Area, which numbers include Fremont County. If growth continues at it's current pace it is projected that Rexburg will gain Metropolitan Area status within 20 years. That is of course unless the daily commute numbers to Idaho Falls/ Bonneville county reaches 25% before then, it would "technically" be included as part of the Idaho Falls Metro Area, adding 50-60K population to the numbers. These numbers help companies decide on locating their business. An area with high growth % numbers and increased growth projections is a big part of their decisions. That would explain why quite a few companies chose the Salt Lake Area during the early 90s before the East Idaho Area started to boom, as opposed to locating here.

As far as Bingham County, it is included in the Idaho Falls Combined Statistical Area, which basically means that commute % numbers have not reached the 25% mark to be included as part of the metro. Doesn't make much sense but that is the Census Bereau for you! More than likely with all the growth in Shelley and Northern Bingham County, and new job growth in Bonneville County (Areva, possibly others) the commute percentage should be enough for inclusion into the Idaho Falls MSA more than likely by the 2020 census. Bad news for Pocatello, Bingham County is really their only hope to have significant gains to pad their metro numbers, but is going to end up going to the IFMSA sooner than later.

Another confusing aspect of our area is Butte County where the INL facilities are located. When you considers that people commute out of Bonneville County to work in Butte County, that basically keeps Butte County out of the MSA. (Census Bereau definitions again.) Maybe we can get Crapo or Simpson to lobby support for inclusion!

I hope I explained this properly, I have done some research and had conversations with people who understand. Maybe I passed on some good knowledge. My best guestimate is that by the 2030 Census, the Idaho Falls Metro Area will include 8B, 1J, 4B, and possibly 1M, the overall population numbers for the MSA should be close to 240-250K. I would imagine that the population of Idaho Falls proper should be close to 70-75K.
Hey IFGuy,

Not like you and I have been discussing this subject for the last 3-4 years or anything, but it is great to have you post here. I was ready to ask "the expert," to add a guest post to explain more.

I have to admit I'm a little confused about 4B, as I thought Northern 4B was included. You are correct about Butte Co (7B) and the other. I'm just confused as right now I thought the Idaho Falls MSA counts some of 4B.

Or, is it the Urban area? Oh well, maybe we can get it figured out here. Or maybe I'll always be confused.

Yes, glad you mentioned Rexburg growing at the Micropolitan clip that it is. Twin Falls and Rexburg are predicted to be the next areas that grow, along with those currently growing.

Glad to have you here.

MSR
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Old 04-01-2009, 02:54 AM
 
398 posts, read 430,101 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mtn. States Resident View Post
Hey IFGuy,

Not like you and I have been discussing this subject for the last 3-4 years or anything, but it is great to have you post here. I was ready to ask "the expert," to add a guest post to explain more.

I have to admit I'm a little confused about 4B, as I thought Northern 4B was included. You are correct about Butte Co (7B) and the other. I'm just confused as right now I thought the Idaho Falls MSA counts some of 4B.

Or, is it the Urban area? Oh well, maybe we can get it figured out here. Or maybe I'll always be confused.

Yes, glad you mentioned Rexburg growing at the Micropolitan clip that it is. Twin Falls and Rexburg are predicted to be the next areas that grow, along with those currently growing.

Glad to have you here.

MSR
Well I got a little tired of other sites being weird and negative and after browsing this site I get the feeling this is a good place for positive discussion.

I imagine that the reason you're confused is this, Idaho Falls is part of two "areas". The first of course is the Metro area which includes only Jefferson County due to a 25% "in-commute" rate which basically 25% or more of the people that work commute to 8B or Idaho Falls. Then you have the Combined Statistical Area which includes all of Bingham County as well as 8B and 1J. The only reason that 4B is not included is that we don't see the 25% "in-commute" rate that we get from Jefferson County, at least not yet, but when the census is done and numbers are looked at, there is a good possibility it will be included. Bingham County's workforce is split basically in three ways, some commute to Pocatello, some commute to Idaho Falls, and there are alot of seasonal migrant workers working in the fields. Because more people commute to 8B than to 1B, Bingham is included in the Idaho Falls Combined Statistical Area.

I am sure as the north end of Bingham County continues to grow, and it will more than let's say Blackfoot area is due to it's proximity to Idaho Falls and the new sewage treatment plant that will be able to provide services to areas that once were only able to use septic tanks. For kicks, it has been said that the area between Shelley and Idaho Falls will soon be no more once this plant is up and running. Considering the two at one time were 12+ miles apart, and now they are closer to 5-6 miles apart, once this service is provided the area will boom. Shouldn't be more than 5 years and by that time the commute % should be high enough for Bingham County to be included as part of the Idaho Falls MSA.
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Old 04-04-2009, 10:24 AM
 
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Do you guys cheerleading Idaho Falls growth want to look like Meridian? Not that I'm jealous of growth, quite the contrary.

Here's some healthy counterpoint from a Pocatello perspective, from a local real estate agency which I won't quote my source because I don't want it to look like an advertisement and this information is widely available.

"Pocatello traditionally enjoys a steady annual growth rate of about one percent—wonderful for attracting new businesses while allowing for appropriate planning and infrastructure growth. Pocatello has been spared the explosive growing pains of other Idaho communities in recent years, growing at a manageable pace while retaining its "small town" character. Refer to the chart below to analyze trends in growth over the past century in both Pocatello and Bannock County."

Census Bannock co. Pocatello change %change
2000 75,565 51,466 +5,386 +1.2%
1990 66,026 46,080 -260 -0.1%
1980 65,421 46,340 +6,304 +1.6%
1970 52,200 40,036 +11,502 +4.0%
1960 49,342 28,534 +2,403 +0.9%
1950 41,745 26,131 +7,998 +4.4%
1940 34,759 18,133 +1,662 +1.0%
1930 31,266 16,471 +1,470 +1.0%
1920 27,532 15,001 +5,891 +6.5%
1910 19,242 9,110 +5,064 +12.5%
1900 11,702 4,046 - -

Current census estimates show current Pocatello population approaching 55,000 with adjoining Chubbuck at about 10,000

Last edited by twinprism; 04-04-2009 at 10:34 AM..
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