What's the end game with North Idaho prices rising nonstop? (Coeur d'Alene: real estate, houses)

[cdaid]

We all know prices have been going up in North Idaho / CDA area. But surely this can't continue forever, right? How does this play out over the next 5/10/25 years?

Do we just become the next Jackson Hole, WY or San Francisco (housing wise, at least), where only the super-rich can live here?

Do we have a sudden housing crash as people decide that while it's a desirable area, it's not worth the money?

Or do market forces and additional supply/construction eventually catch up with all the money and demand coming from out of state, and we come back down to a reasonable housing cost?

None of us have a crystal ball but what do people here think?

[volosong]

It's simply a matter of the economic law of "Supply and Demand". Won't change until most of the Baby Boomers have retired. The other driving force is those of one political persuasion leaving an area controlled by the opposite political philosophy.

Then there is the competing interest between those already here who want to preserve what little prairie is left against those who would develop it for urban uses. Restrict the supply of something and the cost of it will increase.

[banjomike]

"Reasonable" is a very relative word when it comes to real estate.

The growth in CDA is not the same as the growth in Jackson Hole. There's a lot of difference in just about anything that comes to mind when comparing those 2 towns.

Even so, I' sure you won't ever see the same housing prices in CDA you saw there in 2010 again. Once a city accommodates to a sudden growth spurt, it has to stay at that size afterward or things can really go bad. Think of Detroit. That city is now 1/3 as large as it once was.

That's housing collapse. It follows employment collapse and the collapse of city services. Houses are most folk's largest life investment, and owners don't easily give up their homes.

CDA Hasn't been growing at this rate for decades. It's been able to keep up with the newcomers pretty well until quite recently. I'm sure the city will feel the pinch of stretching at its seams for a while, but a slowdown will come, and that will allow CDA time to catch up to the growth.

If it continues to boom, that probably means CDA Is only keeping up with the times. It might not be able to do that forever, but that's something that's next to impossible to predict.

[banjomike]

Originally Posted by volosong

It's simply a matter of the economic law of "Supply and Demand". Won't change until most of the Baby Boomers have retired. The other driving force is those of one political persuasion leaving an area controlled by the opposite political philosophy.

Then there is the competing interest between those already here who want to preserve what little prairie is left against those who would develop it for urban uses. Restrict the supply of something and the cost of it will increase.

You brought up an interesting point, Volo.
Preserving an area's natural beauty is something both old-timers and newcomers want. It can happen when a city and/or county makes it a priority and plans around natural preservation.

Things will change, of course, and some of nature could be lost, but growth can be planned around keeping a much nature as possible. All it takes is unrelenting citizen demand to make it happen.

[Boone1791]

Originally Posted by cdaid

None of us have a crystal ball but what do people here think?

I'm far from any expert on the situation, and I have a hard time making predictions, especially about the future, but I'm thinking that if one already has property in NID, then the increasing prices is a good thing for one's property value. And if one doesn't already have property in NID, maybe it's not the worst time to get in on the boom?

[oregonwoodsmoke]

If you own, increasing prices are only good if you want to sell. Otherwise increasing prices only mean that your property taxes go up.

Increasing population means crowd roads, crowded school, crowded boat launches, crowded trails, crowded stores, and the very real danger that all the incomers will chip away at it until they turn this area into what they were fleeing to begin with.

[oregonwoodsmoke]

To answer the original question, real estate prices always run in cycles. They go up, they go down, then they go up, then they go down again.

Government interference makes the cycle a lot deeper.

[Mister Torgue]

I just hope property in the NID sticks is still inexpensive when we get ready to buy/build! We are getting closer to our goal.

Fun fact, I’ll be interviewing for a job in Bozeman MT but their cost of living after looking in to it is a bit concerning to me even with the pay raise I’ll be getting. I will be able to afford it but I don’t want to have to pay it. Seems the influx of out of state residents—a lot of them with money—has played a factor in this increase.

[509]

It is all about demographics and the economy.


In the late sixties and early 70's I spent a lot of time exploring ghost towns in the Sierra's. Couldn't avoid it as a Forest Service employee. Lots of very small towns built prior to the depression and then just GONE. Take the Hiawata Trail for a similar history in north Idaho.



I moved to Coeur d'Alene in the late 70's when it was undergoing is "first" boom. Five years later the economy was so depressed I celebrated when I sold the house for the same price I paid for it.


It was a small town in those days. Looking at demographics in this country the non-urban centers will become "ghost towns" again.



Coeur d'Alene is no longer a small town. Is it big enough as an urban area to draw the new demographic groups in America??



There will be major changes in real estate values in America as the baby boom dies off. My guess is that many people will have a very hard time selling their homes, just like I did in Coeur d'Alene with my first house.


Coeur d' Alene might be big enough now to avoid the worst of it.

[Boone1791]

Originally Posted by oregonwoodsmoke

If you own, increasing prices are only good if you want to sell. Otherwise increasing prices only mean that your property taxes go up.

Yes, that's certainly a drawback. And selling, after finding what we were looking for, is not on the agenda.

Originally Posted by Mister Torgue

...Fun fact, I’ll be interviewing for a job in Bozeman MT but their cost of living after looking in to it is a bit concerning to me even with the pay raise I’ll be getting. I will be able to afford it but I don’t want to have to pay it. Seems the influx of out of state residents—a lot of them with money—has played a factor in this increase.

So "cost of living" is that high in Bozeman? The only thing I know about Bozeman is my Gibson Songwriter 12-string was made at Gibson's acoustic plant there in 2018.