NID crazy nutso RE prices continue (Boise, Coeur d'Alene: credit, vacation home, to buy)

[Clark Fork Fantast]

Originally Posted by nm9stheham

Here is an interesting map..... press the 'Map' button of you see a graph. Hover your mouse on each state and see the average statewide house price in each state compared to the 1980 price, expressed in % of the 1980 price. ID is now about mid-pack overall on average.

But the graph associated with this page shows that ID has indeed increased very suddenly in the last 7-8 years.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IDSTHPI


By comparison, MT had a steeper price increase in the time from around 1990 to the start of the recession than ID. So ID is catching up, in a way.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MTSTHPI

Super interesting. We bought our property (bare land) in 2008 Q3, and escrow closed the week of the Wall Street crash...talk about timing ! But the bare land values in NID never really went down, so we still got the deal we wanted. At the time my impression was that land values were steeper in MT, and I think the graphs show the same thing.

It'll be interesting to see the results for Q3 and Q4 of 2020 in ID.

[Boone1791]

Originally Posted by elousv

We bought our house for $100/sq.ft. 3 years ago. Zillow now has it at $163/sq.ft.....

About the same here. We bought our place about 3 years ago. Zillow now lists it for 60% more than what we bought it for.

[nm9stheham]

Originally Posted by Clark Fork Fantast

But the bare land values in NID never really went down, so we still got the deal we wanted.

That is interesting and a bit unusual. Some of that has to do with whether the land concerned is building lots or larger parcels. Building lots get a double whammy on price, either up or down with a surge or collapse in demand. Not only do buyers dissappear from the market for lots in a downturn, but builders stop building too. On the Outer Banks of NC in 2010, lots that were on the market were selling for 1/4 to 1/3 that they were 4-5 years before.


So if you are in a town area, some of the demand surge in prices comes from that, and I suspect that most of the new sales are in town areas and the price surge is worst there. What seems different now is that the demand now has broadened unusually outside of the towns too.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by nm9stheham

Here is an interesting map..... press the 'Map' button of you see a graph. Hover your mouse on each state and see the average statewide house price in each state compared to the 1980 price, expressed in % of the 1980 price. ID is now about mid-pack overall on average.

But the graph associated with this page shows that ID has indeed increased very suddenly in the last 7-8 years.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IDSTHPI


By comparison, MT had a steeper price increase in the time from around 1990 to the start of the recession than ID. So ID is catching up, in a way.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MTSTHPI

Amazing information, I had no idea such detailed historical data was on regional federal reserve branch sites.

[nm9stheham]

The St Louis Fed seems to be a specialized Fed Reserve Bank in this regard. They have tons of this type of data, as you may have seen if your perused their site above.

Plus they have done some pretty diverse and detailed studies; back in the spring, I read their report from a dozen years ago on an economic study of the Spanish flu...! Here it is below....

https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/f...flu_report.pdf

[elousv]

So that dump on 2nd street that I had posted for $800K has been going down and lately was $624K, now it says pending, crazy. There is a puny place in Dalton, 1200 sq. zero landscaping for $700K, crazy. Half acre lot on Garden for $1.375M, yes MILLION, nutso.

[Clark Fork Fantast]

Originally Posted by nm9stheham

That is interesting and a bit unusual. Some of that has to do with whether the land concerned is building lots or larger parcels. Building lots get a double whammy on price, either up or down with a surge or collapse in demand. Not only do buyers dissappear from the market for lots in a downturn, but builders stop building too. On the Outer Banks of NC in 2010, lots that were on the market were selling for 1/4 to 1/3 that they were 4-5 years before.


So if you are in a town area, some of the demand surge in prices comes from that, and I suspect that most of the new sales are in town areas and the price surge is worst there. What seems different now is that the demand now has broadened unusually outside of the towns too.

We're definitely not in a town area! We're as rural as one can be within 1 1/2 mile of the paved county road. We kept an eye on the comps in our area for several years after 2008, and the prices held firm, more or less (very few lots available). I think we were the only ones building in the entire area a few years into the recession! Our builder was available, and the lumber/building material prices were reasonable. So despite the bad timing for the land purchase, we lucked out with the timing of the building process. It's a totally different scene today!

[Shaner]

Using Zillow as a Idaho property resource is not helpful as the state is a non-disclosure state which means sales data is not given to 3rd party sources which kills Zillows zestimates and most of their pricing data. For example I just sold my house and Zillow said 273k and I sold for mid 300k. My new house Zillow says is worth 785k and I paid high 400k and as a professional I can tell you I could sell it for 550. Currently they take listing (not sold) data from a 2 mile sq area around your home and thats how they come up with your Zestimate. We all know how our neighborhoods can be hit or miss around town.

Just some knowledge for you =)

[nowhereman427]

Originally Posted by Shaner

Using Zillow as a Idaho property resource is not helpful as the state is a non-disclosure state which means sales data is not given to 3rd party sources which kills Zillows zestimates and most of their pricing data. For example I just sold my house and Zillow said 273k and I sold for mid 300k. My new house Zillow says is worth 785k and I paid high 400k and as a professional I can tell you I could sell it for 550. Currently they take listing (not sold) data from a 2 mile sq area around your home and thats how they come up with your Zestimate. We all know how our neighborhoods can be hit or miss around town.

Just some knowledge for you =)

How is Realtor.com?
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ta...xJRsJrjKNxwlSD

[nm9stheham]

I put limited trust in any of the internet real estate site value estimators. If you are buying a tract house in a large neighborhood in a medium to large city suburb, they are not too far off, at least as a general indicator of value. But the more rural you go, for properties that are unique wherever they are, or if there is a lot of land included, there are very few 'comps' (comparable house sales) available, and those estimators are just a shot in the dark and can be waaay off the mark, as Shaner well notes.

Even for areas with lots of comps, they do not reflect factors like house condition, condition of nearby structures or other factors that effect value, like being right beside a busy interstate corridor, or having a terrific view, or being just plain weird LOL. So at best they are a starting point, and at worst they are pretty useless.

I use property tax assessments as a starting point, that can be found on county or city websites. Those tend to be less erroneous in relative property values, but there are pitfalls with those too. Their usefulness to the municipal authorities is to assign relative values of properties, so that taxes are properly/fairly apportioned to each owner. As such, the assessed values can all be off 10% or 50% and still properly serve their purpose for taxation. So, you have to come up with some % compensation factor to adjust from the tax assessment value to real market value. In times like these, real market value can be 50% or more higher than tax assessment value.



And with land, you have see if the land value is assessed as residential property or as production land (ag or timber or gas/oil/mineral land). If production land, then the assessed value is just a tiny fraction of actual value.


So there is no way to just punch a few buttons and get a good value answer in many cases; you have to get familiar with the area and the specifics.