Illinois Stay At Home Order to Be Extended (Chester, Atlanta: moving to, oil)

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by dtcbnd03

May 1 - virus is widespread and mainly affects the elderly with vaccine 18 months away.
June 1 - virus is widespread and mainly affects the elderly with vaccine 17 months away.

30 additional days of lockdown basically achieve continued economic destruction while saving zero additional lives when the elderly can continue to shelter in place while those aged 0-50 can get the economy moving again.

Honestly, I can't tell if you're struggling to understand the hospitalization rate concept or intentionally ignoring it. Are you able to clarify which one applies?

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by dtcbnd03

May 1 - virus is widespread and mainly affects the elderly with vaccine 18 months away.
June 1 - virus is widespread and mainly affects the elderly with vaccine 17 months away.

30 additional days of lockdown basically achieve continued economic destruction while saving zero additional lives when the elderly can continue to shelter in place while those aged 0-50 can get the economy moving again.

So you disagree with the President too then on when/how to reopen the economy?

[dtcbnd03]

Originally Posted by fusillirob1983

Honestly, I can't tell if you're struggling to understand the hospitalization rate concept or intentionally ignoring it. Are you able to clarify which one applies?

It's very low. Here ya go straight from the CDC:



https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm

And here's another one from the NY Times:

"A new study of thousands of hospitalized coronavirus patients in the New York City area, the epicenter of the outbreak in the United States, has found that nearly all of them had at least one major chronic health condition, and most — 88 percent — had at least two."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/h...ents-risk.html

[dtcbnd03]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

So you disagree with the President too then on when/how to reopen the economy?

I agree with having as much protective gear as possible for healthcare workers. But the virus is out and widespread by HUGE multiples. And if grocery stores and home depot are open and people have figured out how to live life then just open up everything else aged 0-50. I'm fine with those 50+ going out too but they're doing so at their own higher risk of peril given hospitalization and mortality rates.

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by dtcbnd03

It's very low. Here ya go straight from the CDC:



https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm

And here's another one from the NY Times:

"A new study of thousands of hospitalized coronavirus patients in the New York City area, the epicenter of the outbreak in the United States, has found that nearly all of them had at least one major chronic health condition, and most — 88 percent — had at least two."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/h...ents-risk.html

I'm not talking about by age, I'm referring to the total hospitalization rate. There are clearly beds available per the IDPH website, but it's because we're doing social distancing. We also need supplies and medical personnel to match that availability. Given the fact that the stay at home is in place, elective surgeries are now being scheduled.

Are you assuming that those under 50 with underlying conditions also just start going out? What about those with relatives that live with them over 50 with underlying conditions? What about those under 50 with underlying conditions?

I think you may see that at some point, but we haven't met Phase 1 national requirements yet. There's literally zero experts that agree with you, but if you know better, I suggest you change professions and set them all straight asap. You'll be able to save lives and the economy!

[Sunbiz1]

Originally Posted by fusillirob1983

His decisions appear to be based upon recommendations from experts.

Experts who also are now learning on the job, hopefully they'll be better prepared for the next one; currently melting away from the permafrost.

My issue w/this are the checks and balances which are supposed to create representation for all.
Having one person do this is nothing more than a monarchy.
Yet every state constitution gives one person authority to simply shut down an entire state.
When the house and senate should be voting, so that more voices are heard.

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by Sunbiz1

Experts who also are now learning on the job, hopefully they'll be better prepared for the next one; currently melting away from the permafrost.

My issue w/this are the checks and balances which are supposed to create representation for all.
Having one person do this is nothing more than a monarchy.
Yet every state constitution gives one person authority to simply shut down an entire state.
When the house and senate should be voting, so that more voices are heard.

Take it up with the Constitution. We will see what the Supreme Court has to say. Pretty sure you won’t like the decision...

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by Sunbiz1

Experts who also are now learning on the job, hopefully they'll be better prepared for the next one; currently melting away from the permafrost.

My issue w/this are the checks and balances which are supposed to create representation for all.
Having one person do this is nothing more than a monarchy.
Yet every state constitution gives one person authority to simply shut down an entire state.
When the house and senate should be voting, so that more voices are heard.

Would you prefer experts who are "learning on the job", since none of them were born during the Spanish flu, and likely all of them either children or weren't born during that one in the 60s, or would you prefer non-experts making willy-nilly decisions?

I put learning on the job in quotes because I don't necessarily agree with the term. What they're doing is continuing to make decisions as better data and models become available. This was pretty thoroughly explained in the press conference yesterday.

It's the same reason Fivethirtyeight constantly updates their models for whatever they're projecting for instance, whether it's political polling or outcomes in an NBA season.

I work in a financial analysis role. It's the same reason the cost projections I make for January 2021 in December 2020 will differ than the cost projections I make for January 2021 today. These people can't predict the future, but they can take the available data and make the best data and projections based on what they have. They can also take into consideration multiple models, which is what they're doing, and that's actually a smart thing.

[Sunbiz1]

Originally Posted by fusillirob1983

Would you prefer

Herd Immunity

[glass_of_merlot]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

In what sense? Not sure what’s more devastating than death.

Death from virus is not to worse thing that can happen. Crashing economy, depression, 30% or more unemployment... which will lead to death of many more people in the end. Non of it is worth this hysteria.
I rather open economy, suggest people wear masks in public, let people with underlying condition stay home.