Illinoisans are hurting. (live in, estimate, health care)

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns

At least one of those was clearly influenced by backlog from a holiday weekend. It's been a month since we've actually broken 1,000 deaths in any day, and there were two days over the weekend that were below 300, but whatever, you know that "we are seemingly headed in the wrong direction," so I guess that last month of data means nothing.

If the time difference of our epidemic relative to theirs is negligible, and the U.S. is an irredeemable s*** show compared to the wise Europeans, then the U.S. should have way, way more cumulative deaths per capita than the total of the EU. Why don't you tally that up and see if that's true and get back to me?

I already covered this in prior posts. To date, we have a cumulative death rate (deaths per capita) that’s approx 70% higher than Europe. And this despite the two week lag in exposure that you referenced earlier, which again is relatively negligible imo.

[tribecavsbrowns]

Originally Posted by fusillirob1983

So is your argument that because the southern states hit their peaks later (actually for most its their second peek), and thus they're not seeing the accumulated deaths yet?

There's nothing political about it. The southern states largely are not doing much about it. Florida is mainly ignoring the problem. Texas ignored the problem well beyond the point most states that were hit hard in March, waiting til they had like 5k cases a day to do a thing.

For which ones?

Let me turn it around on you, if these states haven't been doing anything about the virus for four months, why are their per-capita death rates so low? Why does Florida have a lower per capita death rate than Delaware or Rhode Island?

Nothing political about it, my ass. Although I notice we haven't talked about the favorite political punching bag for Chicago people, Indiana. Their deaths have nosedived as well (https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm) despite little evidence that they've been particularly restrictive (also, CovidActNow says they're doing a low-medium level of contact tracing: https://covidactnow.org/us/in?s=63795).

[My Kind Of Town]

“Simple arithmetic” (source - worldometers.info)

European population: 747,647,097
Covid deaths: 195,050
Covid death rate: 1 death per 3833 people (0.02609%)

US population: 331,002,651
Covid deaths: 134,862
Covid death rate: 1 death per 2454 people (0.04075%)

I suppose my initial back of the napkin math was off a bit and the death rate is “only” 56% higher here than in Europe. Still doesn’t change my point that we have fared significantly worse than Europe despite being further from the epicenter of the outbreak (with an entire ocean between us) and getting hit a couple weeks later than Europe.

Maybe we’ve just had bad luck and Hydroxychloroquine isn’t a miracle drug after all. Or perhaps a better explanation would be that we’ve taken a far worse approach in addressing the pandemic than most of the civilized world that caught on after the first month of the pandemic.

[tribecavsbrowns]

I got the same 56% figure you did. I admit it's higher than I would have guessed. I appreciate the work you did tracking down the info.

This is going to sound like goalpost moving, but it looks to me like almost 90% of the European deaths are in Western Europe and Scandinavia. Eastern European and Balkan countries seemed to do a great job of keeping the virus out in the first place.

Why do I mention this? Because I agree we should have done much more to not let the virus in the first place, like the Eastern European countries did. I screamed that this was a serious situation early on, and it fell on deaf ears. I'm less sure that the Western European and Scandinavian countries are handling this that much better than us, and I might go through and do a per-capita comparison tomorrow when I'm fresh to see if it sheds any light.

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns

I got the same 56% figure you did. I admit it's higher than I would have guessed. I appreciate the work you did tracking down the info.

This is going to sound like goalpost moving, but it looks to me like almost 90% of the European deaths are in Western Europe and Scandinavia. Eastern European and Balkan countries seemed to do a great job of keeping the virus out in the first place.

Why do I mention this? Because I agree we should have done much more to not let the virus in the first place, like the Eastern European countries did. I screamed that this was a serious situation early on, and it fell on deaf ears. I'm less sure that the Western European and Scandinavian countries are handling this that much better than us, and I might go through and do a per-capita comparison tomorrow when I'm fresh to see if it sheds any light.

That’s my entire point. After the initial outbreak, Europe figured out how to contain it and slow its progression. Why haven’t we?

[tribecavsbrowns]

There is indeed a stark difference between Western Europe + Scandinavia and the rest of Europe. For the former, the per-capita death rate is actually higher than US, I found (423 per million vs. 408 per million). Since it's not 1987 anymore, I'll throw in Czechia, Hungary, and Slovenia, all of which have very low death rates and some western-ish vibes. That brings the total of the group down to 403 per million, practically a dead heat with the US.

You're arguing as if Europe is a monolith, when it isn't. I get that that's a narrative (Europeans smart, wear masks, Americans idiots, have beach parties and Trump rallies), but to get any useful solutions you have to pick the narrative apart and look at individual countries, or at the very least, groups of countries that were affected similarly.

France has more deaths per capita than Arizona, Texas, or Florida, but they also have hardly any deaths presently. Does that mean France "did well" or "did poorly?" To me, the only ones who approach it that way are ones who are trying to push a narrative. What the data screams to me is that every geography (except the locations that locked down very hard at the beginning, such as Eastern Europe and the Asian countries) takes a hit, and it happens at different times but it eventually slows to a trickle.

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns

For which ones?

Let me turn it around on you, if these states haven't been doing anything about the virus for four months, why are their per-capita death rates so low? Why does Florida have a lower per capita death rate than Delaware or Rhode Island?

Nothing political about it, my ass. Although I notice we haven't talked about the favorite political punching bag for Chicago people, Indiana. Their deaths have nosedived as well (https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm) despite little evidence that they've been particularly restrictive (also, CovidActNow says they're doing a low-medium level of contact tracing: https://covidactnow.org/us/in?s=63795).

I'm basically just for people not being stupid. California, a blue state, has plenty of people being stupid. Indiana and Ohio, red states, slightly less so. Ohio's Republican governor has provided pretty good leadership on this, specifically early on.

Texas, Florida, Alabama and Mississippi ICUs are being overrun. It was mostly preventable from getting that bad in those states.

You're right about timing RE: Delaware, etc, the only issue being that the states being hit hard now could've learned lessons from those states and decided not to. Florida, Georgia and CA all had smaller peaks in mid April but all opened back up too early to get the virus to a more controllable level and social distancing and masks were regularly ignored. So, sure you're only focused on deaths, but how many people want to go to an ICU and wear a ventilator when they can go about their regular life wearing a mask? There's about 10,000 people just in Texas in the ICU right now, mostly preventable.

Again, I'm anti stupid behavior and am not against holding back the economy.

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns

There is indeed a stark difference between Western Europe + Scandinavia and the rest of Europe. For the former, the per-capita death rate is actually higher than US, I found (423 per million vs. 408 per million). Since it's not 1987 anymore, I'll throw in Czechia, Hungary, and Slovenia, all of which have very low death rates and some western-ish vibes. That brings the total of the group down to 403 per million, practically a dead heat with the US.

You're arguing as if Europe is a monolith, when it isn't. I get that that's a narrative (Europeans smart, wear masks, Americans idiots, have beach parties and Trump rallies), but to get any useful solutions you have to pick the narrative apart and look at individual countries, or at the very least, groups of countries that were affected similarly.

France has more deaths per capita than Arizona, Texas, or Florida, but they also have hardly any deaths presently. Does that mean France "did well" or "did poorly?" To me, the only ones who approach it that way are ones who are trying to push a narrative. What the data screams to me is that every geography (except the locations that locked down very hard at the beginning, such as Eastern Europe and the Asian countries) takes a hit, and it happens at different times but it eventually slows to a trickle.

So comparing the US to Europe isn’t fair but comparing individual US states to individual European countries is? And what is your definition of deaths slowing to a trickle? Is 500 deaths per day a trickle because that’s still 180k deaths over a one year period.

Looks like we’re reporting over 500 deaths again today. The 7-day average on US covid deaths appears to have bottomed and is now trending up again. Mind you that this is occurring while the average age of those hospitalized and dead has significantly decreased when compared to the start of the pandemic.

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

So comparing the US to Europe isn’t fair but comparing individual US states to individual European countries is? And what is your definition of deaths slowing to a trickle? Is 500 deaths per day a trickle because that’s still 180k deaths over a one year period.

Looks like we’re reporting over 500 deaths again today. The 7-day average on US covid deaths appears to have bottomed and is now trending up again. Mind you that this is occurring while the average age of those hospitalized and dead has significantly decreased when compared to the start of the pandemic.

Good point. I wish that deaths, cases and hospitalizations trended in line on the same days, but unfortunately people get cases, then they get hospitals, and unfortunately for some they die after that. I hope that lesson have been learned by hospitals how to prevent as many deaths over the last few month. That would lead to an actual decrease in the death rate. I suspect though deaths will tick up on a couple week lag after an uptick in cases in hospitalizations. I hope it doesn't, I'm just following what previously happened.

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by fusillirob1983

Good point. I wish that deaths, cases and hospitalizations trended in line on the same days, but unfortunately people get cases, then they get hospitals, and unfortunately for some they die after that. I hope that lesson have been learned by hospitals how to prevent as many deaths over the last few month. That would lead to an actual decrease in the death rate. I suspect though deaths will tick up on a couple week lag after an uptick in cases in hospitalizations. I hope it doesn't, I'm just following what previously happened.

Yea, tribe was busting my balls for saying that we are still seeing nearly 1,000 deaths per day. In each of the last three days we’ve reported 800+ covid deaths. I’d consider that near 1,000 and the 7-day average is trending up of late. I guess we will find out if that upward trend continues or we see a temporary blip upwards and then continue downwards again. I’m hopeful it’s the latter but fear it’s the former. Should find out soon enough.