Will Illinois ever be the 5th biggest state again? (Chicago: sales, real estate)

[KoNgFooCj]

From about 1997 to 2018, Illinois was the country's 5th most populous state, ahead of Pennsylvania. The 2 are still very close, but Illinois is losing population and Pennsylvania is slowly gaining population. Will Illinois turn around?

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

From about 1997 to 2018, Illinois was the country's 5th most populous state, ahead of Pennsylvania. The 2 are still very close, but Illinois is losing population and Pennsylvania is slowly gaining population. Will Illinois turn around?

If current trends continue, obviously not.

[Curly Q. Bobalink]

Originally Posted by Hiruko

If current trends continue, obviously not.

What amazed me, was how quickly and substantially Florida eclipsed so many other states in population. (I personally find Florida's climate less appealing than Illinois'). I have to wonder if the same thing will happen with other states in the south and southwest in the coming decades. With the proliferation of solar energy, availability of water will likely be the only thing keeping states like Arizona and Nevada from growing faster than they are. And even that is a problem that is solvable through cheap energy (for instance, by paying California to desalinate ocean water for its own use, and selling its allotment of Colorado lower basin water to be used by those states). It wouldn't surprise me if a proposal doesn't surface to repurpose water from the Snake and Columbia toward more farmland in Western Washington and Oregon, vs. allowing it to flow (largely wasted) into the Pacific. Heavens knows what effect the depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer will have on the "breadbasket" of our nation - will we even be able to feed our own population in fifty years unless we find a way to replace that water?

Ohio (#7 currently, I think) is still quite a long way from Illinois' population, so it isn't likely we will drop out of 6th place anytime soon. But that change may accelerate if real estate taxes keep going up, Illinois is becoming "unaffordable" for many.

[CCrest182]

Anyone's guess. The vast majority of IL's population resides in the Chicago area, so all in all if metro Chicago starts to grow again, odds are IL will too. Similarly, if metro Chicago loses population, odds are IL does too. So in other words, IL's population is mainly dependent on how well off or worse off the Chicago metro and northern IL as a whole are doing, rather than the rest of the state.

It all depends on where future trends head, and that's anyone's guess. I definitely however wouldn't write off the possibility entirely. The growth cities/areas of today will not necessarily be the growth cities of tomorrow.

PA, OH, and IL's population gains/losses have all been under 2%, which is not much at all, so I definitely think these trends can change and reverse. And yes, Ohio is a whole 1 million less than IL. I'd be more focused on GA or NC catching up, which even there has a long way to go (nearly 2 million short)

Overall, if I had to guess, I'd imagine IL stays range bound between the 5th and 7th largest state, for probably the next 20-30 years. NY, CA, TX, and FL will continue to be cemented in as the 4 largest states by population, we probably won't see that change in any of our lifetimes.

[Grlzrl]

Not likely given it is #1 in total tax burden before the 60+ % tax increase in November.

[jasperhobbs]

Originally Posted by Metallica93

Illinois was ranked as having the 9th worst state economy (despite being in roughly the top 20 for crime, education, and crime), so not anytime soon. The state has a long way to go in terms of rooting out corruption as deep as Madigan, putting together a level-headed approach to something like legal marijuana sales (i.e. not "Everything's broken, so let's tax the hell out of this one thing to make up for it"), and retooling our budget.

Personally, I think a big thing will be voting in a younger wave of politicians. The old guard, on both the national and state level, need to go.

I agree

[jmgg]

Better question is how far will Illinois drop. This Covid pandemic with the economic ruin from it is speeding up the state's (and for sure the city of Chicago's) eventual bankruptcy. This will speed up the exodus. The only hope is a federal government bail out, as if the fed's even have the money to do it as this would open up a can of worms nationwide.

This state was teetering on the cliff before this hit thanks to the corrupt leadership they've had for decades. It ain't coming back.

[Jon998877]

Georgia and NC will pass Illinois within 25 years

[Justabystander]

Originally Posted by jmgg

Better question is how far will Illinois drop. This Covid pandemic with the economic ruin from it is speeding up the state's (and for sure the city of Chicago's) eventual bankruptcy. This will speed up the exodus. The only hope is a federal government bail out, as if the fed's even have the money to do it as this would open up a can of worms nationwide.

This state was teetering on the cliff before this hit thanks to the corrupt leadership they've had for decades. It ain't coming back.

Other states that were not able to control the corona virus situation are in a far worse mess. Florida, with DeSantis at the helm, will self destruct from their rate of illness.

[jmgg]

Originally Posted by Justabystander

Other states that were not able to control the corona virus situation are in a far worse mess. Florida, with DeSantis at the helm, will self destruct from their rate of illness.

The BIG difference is the economies of states like Florida compared to Illinois before the pandemic. Florida can weather this pandemic much better because economically they were starting from a position of strength. Illinois was already a dumpster fire before the Covid 19 hit.