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Old 01-06-2021, 03:21 AM
 
3,154 posts, read 1,685,151 times
Reputation: 9269

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Quote:
Originally Posted by BRU67 View Post
I counted 43 of 50 moving from blue states mostly to red states. Gee I wonder what the long-term ramifications of that will be.
I interpret your comment to mean that currently-red states will be turning blue long-term. That may be true, but it all depends on what the political affiliation is of the people that are moving, my guess is that it is largely those who feel "disenfranchised" politically. Me, for instance - none of my votes for President, U.S. Senator or U.S. House have ever mattered, as I am in the ~30% of those in IL who are not Democrats. If I end up moving to Texas, Kansas, or Utah, they will become redder, not bluer. I'd love to see real stats on this, but I doubt they exist.

As an example, although many Democrats are currently leaving Illinois for better job opportunities, better weather, or lower taxes, it's doubtful many are doing so for political reasons such as abortion, gun control, LGBTQ rights, etc., Illinois is a Leftist's Dream from a "Progressive" standpoint. While many conservatives may be leaving for the same reasons, they also have the incentive to go somewhere they feel their voice matters, plus not having to pay taxes for things they are ideologically against.
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Old 01-06-2021, 08:02 AM
 
Location: Chicago, Little Village
4,884 posts, read 8,871,772 times
Reputation: 3788
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curly Q. Bobalink View Post
I interpret your comment to mean that currently-red states will be turning blue long-term. That may be true, but it all depends on what the political affiliation is of the people that are moving, my guess is that it is largely those who feel "disenfranchised" politically. Me, for instance - none of my votes for President, U.S. Senator or U.S. House have ever mattered, as I am in the ~30% of those in IL who are not Democrats. If I end up moving to Texas, Kansas, or Utah, they will become redder, not bluer. I'd love to see real stats on this, but I doubt they exist.

As an example, although many Democrats are currently leaving Illinois for better job opportunities, better weather, or lower taxes, it's doubtful many are doing so for political reasons such as abortion, gun control, LGBTQ rights, etc., Illinois is a Leftist's Dream from a "Progressive" standpoint. While many conservatives may be leaving for the same reasons, they also have the incentive to go somewhere they feel their voice matters, plus not having to pay taxes for things they are ideologically against.
Yes, that is an accurate interpretation of what I am saying. Well, the desirable red states anyway.

I don't think it's largely those disenfranchised moving, as that's a dying breed. People move for a variety of reasons, including to escape high taxes and to take advantage
of economic opportunity. People are moving to Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, Florida, and Arizona because they see those areas as economically viable with good weather. They are not becoming utopias for disenchanted white conservatives. That is not what's happening.
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Old 01-06-2021, 08:22 AM
 
2,037 posts, read 2,128,074 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by animalcrazy View Post
This. The mafia machine politics has been around for decades and is far too powerful. It's a disgrace that multiple governors have been put in jail. Our taxes are ridiculous. We had a Republican governor that I voted for that nearly put us in junk bond status. I don't think it was entirely his fault. Corruption of that magnitude is hard to stop. Especially with our speaker of the house who keeps on getting re-elected because he takes good care of his constituents. They can't see the greater picture.

Would I leave Illinois because of the taxes? No. I have a great life here and the thought of starting over this late in life? That does not appeal to me. I guess if money was an issue I might move, but it's not. Right now my loved ones mean more to me than the high taxes. Besides, it keeps the riffraff out. We have a lot of high quality people moving out of the city into our little satellite suburb driving up the property values. So while the high taxes are annoying, there is much more to the story.

Who was it that said they love Chicago in the summer in this thread? Yep I totally agree. I love Chicago in the summer. It's a fabulous city. Winter is nice too. Ever been ice skating on the ribbon in Maggie Daley park? Chicago is magical at sunset covered by a blanket of snow with all of the regular lights and Christmas lights on. Don't get me started on the architecture, beautiful old theaters, and the food.
I totally agree with this. I was downtown last night driving through and marvelled at how clean the city was and just how beautiful. How well it has endured the pandemic, and the lack of vacant space. This is a great city, I have lived in 3 other states, and still think it is fantastic.
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Old 01-06-2021, 10:30 AM
 
Location: Floyd County, IN
25,307 posts, read 43,237,847 times
Reputation: 18060
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRU67 View Post
Yes, that is an accurate interpretation of what I am saying. Well, the desirable red states anyway.

I don't think it's largely those disenfranchised moving, as that's a dying breed. People move for a variety of reasons, including to escape high taxes and to take advantage
of economic opportunity. People are moving to Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, Florida, and Arizona because they see those areas as economically viable with good weather. They are not becoming utopias for disenchanted white conservatives. That is not what's happening.
Most of the southern states do not have "good weather," they will and are already having more issues with water shortages and fire threats, particularly areas of the western US. The Southeast also has horrid heat, humidity, and bugs, that's your trade off for "less winter."
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Old 01-06-2021, 10:35 AM
 
Location: northwest valley, az
3,425 posts, read 2,555,302 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
Most of the southern states do not have "good weather," ."
HUH?? Whats your definition of a state that DOES have "good weather"???
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Old 01-06-2021, 10:38 AM
 
Location: Sweet Home Chicago!
6,536 posts, read 5,706,474 times
Reputation: 9346
Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
Most of the southern states do not have "good weather," they will and are already having more issues with water shortages and fire threats, particularly areas of the western US. The Southeast also has horrid heat, humidity, and bugs, that's your trade off for "less winter."
Agree, weather is subjective. I lived in Atlanta for a while and no thanks, way too hot! and no snow in the winter is a big downer for me.

Also agree with Curly's assessment above. If I move, one of my main considerations is the political atmosphere of the state so Red states are a huge plus in my book.
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Old 01-06-2021, 12:27 PM
 
Location: Chicago, Little Village
4,884 posts, read 8,871,772 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BRU67 View Post
My theory is you aren't going to be able to run from this. Nashville is getting very blue due to the transplants from mostly Democratic run states. If you're comfortable out in the country or in a smaller city, you may be ok in TN, but I expect Nashville to adopt many of the same policies that you see in leftist areas over time. And personally, being used to Chicago, that is the only city in TN I'd even consider.

Ditto for FL. It was very close last election, and the continued migration of people from NY, NJ, MA and other east coast areas will certainly change policy there too over time. Let's watch GA tomorrow. If I had to bet, my money would be on the Democrats retaking the Senate, but we will see. It'll be close. But perhaps less close next election. A lot of migration from Democrat areas, particularly to the Atlanta area. That's eventually going to wag the GA dog, just like Chicago wags the IL dog.
I swear I'm not psychic. I just pay attention to trends, LOL

I mean look, I don't want to pee on anyone's parade. If you believe that a gleaming utopia of like-minded conservatives awaits you in a prosperous red state with perfect weather, bike trails, and kittens, knock yourself out. I think you'll ultimately be disappointed, probably sooner rather than later, but hey, I'm not psychic as I said. Anyone has the right to live where he or she wants at the end of the day.

My issue is people who come here to bash our state to feel better about themselves and validate themselves. IL is an easy target. We get it. We all know. Your gloating isn't going to change anything for the better. I mean, I dealt with this when I moved to Berwyn some years ago and I'm dealing with it again on a state level now. So I just have very little patience for it.

That is all. Carry on and be well, and I wish everyone the best in their new state who is moving. May you find happiness and peace.
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Old 01-06-2021, 12:29 PM
 
3,154 posts, read 1,685,151 times
Reputation: 9269
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRU67 View Post
Yes, that is an accurate interpretation of what I am saying. Well, the desirable red states anyway.

I don't think it's largely those disenfranchised moving, as that's a dying breed. People move for a variety of reasons, including to escape high taxes and to take advantage
of economic opportunity. People are moving to Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, Florida, and Arizona because they see those areas as economically viable with good weather. They are not becoming utopias for disenchanted white conservatives. That is not what's happening.
Not challenging your bolded statement, but "how do you know?" Specifically, what are you reading that leads you to this conclusion? If it's pure commentary, so much of that is poisoned by the writer's prejudices, I'm always skeptical of it. Personally, I wish the Census took advantage of its reach to understand more of the country's political and social movements via hard data. Simply knowing that "90,000 residents left Illinois last year" doesn't tell enough of the story to be fully useful.

With respect to "climate", I think that San Diego pretty much hits the sweet spot, with everything on either side of it being a compromise, that's why my $200K Chicago home would be worth $600K in San Diego. Unless of course, one is bored easily, and likes to shovel snow or have their car interiors set to "broil" half the year.

Edit: We were typing our last responses at the same time, I didn't see yours until I hit "save". Good call on the Senate races.
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Old 01-06-2021, 12:47 PM
 
Location: Chicago, Little Village
4,884 posts, read 8,871,772 times
Reputation: 3788
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curly Q. Bobalink View Post
Not challenging your bolded statement, but "how do you know?" Specifically, what are you reading that leads you to this conclusion? If it's pure commentary, so much of that is poisoned by the writer's prejudices, I'm always skeptical of it. Personally, I wish the Census took advantage of its reach to understand more of the country's political and social movements via hard data. Simply knowing that "90,000 residents left Illinois last year" doesn't tell enough of the story to be fully useful.

With respect to "climate", I think that San Diego pretty much hits the sweet spot, with everything on either side of it being a compromise, that's why my $200K Chicago home would be worth $600K in San Diego. Unless of course, one is bored easily, and likes to shovel snow or have their car interiors set to "broil" half the year.

Edit: We were typing our last responses at the same time, I didn't see yours until I hit "save". Good call on the Senate races.
Well, for one thing, you can just look at election results. Not just the whole states but the counties in each state. You will note the prosperous cities and counties are turning blue, even in conservative states like TN, TX, FL and, as we just witnessed, GA.

You can add an element of educated guess too. The bottom line is conservatives have been losing the cultural war. People left of center have dominated academia, the media, and Hollywood for a long time, and that is now true of big tech as well. This has had an impact. Republican performance among younger voters has been declining. That's statistically supportable.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...er-than-trump/

I mean, I get bashed by left and right for suggesting that we should try to bring our manufacturing base back, for both good jobs and national security. But if it doesn't come back, as everyone tells me it can't, then where is our national wealth going to come from? Educated information workers, who trend young, and thus Democrat. Whether they continue their move to urban centers or pull back into smaller cities as dctnb03 and others have theorized is really anyone's guess, but either way, they are likely to shift the electorate in prosperous states.

Not saying this can't be turned around. While not a majority, a substantial number of Hispanics voted Republican in the Presidential race in '20, despite (or because of?) Trump's non-stop rhetoric and the media's constant bashing of him as anti-immigrant. If they can build on that, maybe the trajectory changes. But right now, it doesn't look good for conservative values in the U.S.
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Old 01-06-2021, 12:49 PM
 
Location: Floyd County, IN
25,307 posts, read 43,237,847 times
Reputation: 18060
Quote:
Originally Posted by wase4711 View Post
HUH?? Whats your definition of a state that DOES have "good weather"???
Good weather is subjective, but I personally hate any heat, humidity, or excessive sun. Glad lots of people like that, I can have the more reasonable real estate prices that come with the group think mentality of "less desirable weather."
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