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Old 08-19-2010, 04:39 AM
 
Location: Wherever women are
19,012 posts, read 29,728,231 times
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And there are a lot of indications that it might be going to. For example, there is rumor that big investors are pulling out and making the exit with cash. A 30 year fund manager closed his business just yesterday, his name escapes me.

It's certain to happen in the next 2 to 5 months.

In case of one such crash, is there any sector which will be least affected? (Possibly not, but let's just say, when the rest go 40% down, these ones will take a 15% hit)

They keep speaking of the bond bubble too.

Which would be the best places to put your money? Gold? ETFs? Thoughts?

I'm thinking I'll cash all my positions out and wait for the crash. Also, it's a good opportunity for shorting.
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Old 08-19-2010, 05:19 AM
 
106,695 posts, read 108,880,922 times
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Good luck... i kind of predicted 7 of the last 2 crashes myself......

just when you think you got it all figured out stuff not even on the radar proves you wrong and you find yourself on the wrong side of the investment again.

i prefer to cover all the bases and leave the predicting to those with the crystal balls...
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Old 08-19-2010, 06:24 AM
 
3,853 posts, read 12,869,001 times
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best place to put money? commodities.

If economy recovers, everyone buys more commodities

If economy collapses (from inflation) then commodity prices will soar and your wealth will be protected.

If economy collapses (from unemployment, outsourcing etc.) then foreign countries will buy your commodities.

Everyone in the entire world needs to eat and buy energy to run their economy.
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Old 08-19-2010, 06:59 AM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,052 posts, read 84,509,263 times
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I'm with killer2021 here..commodities.

People still need to eat.
Goods still need to be transported.
Everyone will still want raw resources.

Solid food companies who sell the basic food stuffs are another are to follow. (Smuckers)
Transportation of goods...freight is the best bang for the buck. (CSX, BNI)
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Old 08-19-2010, 08:04 AM
 
13,811 posts, read 27,457,282 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
I'm with killer2021 here..commodities.

People still need to eat.
Goods still need to be transported.
Everyone will still want raw resources.

Solid food companies who sell the basic food stuffs are another are to follow. (Smuckers)
Transportation of goods...freight is the best bang for the buck. (CSX, BNI)
During the last crash in 2008 commodities fell 50%-75%, more than the market itself.

If less people are buying than selling prices go down, it doesn't matter what the value of that commodity really is.

Best place if you truly think there will be a crash is in cash...
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Old 08-19-2010, 08:05 AM
 
Location: NC
1,672 posts, read 1,772,071 times
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A balanced portfolio.

Commodities do look good but there are ton of risks and very probable scenarios that Killer did not alude to that can destroy your wealth.

EDIT: *Claps for Wheelsup* He beat me too it and put an exact reason why.
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Old 08-19-2010, 08:07 AM
 
106,695 posts, read 108,880,922 times
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any time you speculate on 1 particular economic outcome the results can be financial suicide.....
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Old 08-19-2010, 08:17 AM
 
14,247 posts, read 17,927,270 times
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If the market crashes ..... I will do what I did the last time ..... go back in with new money in addition to the old.

Last year I did 46% ROCE.
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Old 08-19-2010, 08:25 AM
 
106,695 posts, read 108,880,922 times
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good luck calling it right 2x again, when to get out and when to get back in....

if i could do that successfully 3x in a row and beat the markets id be worth a billion dollars to wall street.

most small investors shoot themselves in the foot and actually fail to beat the markets by a wide margin. morningstar actually tracks small investor money and returns speratly from what the funds did.


small investors averaged 1/3 the returns the funds got as they attempted to bail and get back in time and time again.
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Old 08-19-2010, 09:00 AM
 
Location: WA
5,641 posts, read 24,960,086 times
Reputation: 6574
You know it is a lot easier to talk about investing in commodities than actually doing it. If you invest in actual contracts you are subject to taking delivery or selling at whatever price the market offers... it goes up and down and you can be squeezed at many times. Even if you buy something like precious metals you have an asset that requires storage and insurance and pays no dividends.

And if you invest in funds or ETFs that do commodities they are subject to the same issues but often even worse as in order to accommodate churn they are in and out of future contracts on the commodities with greater risk.

So many invest in producers but that is buying equities in companies so you are subject to many of the trends in the stock market you are trying to avoid.

Ask a farmer, miner, oil man, etc... commodities are not necessarily easy or safe.

Being fully diversified in different asset types, segments, and economies worldwide will help reduce risk but there is no simple strategy to maintain wealth.
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