Technicians see stocks heading into bear country (bond, investor, salaries) - Investing -stocks, bonds, mutual funds, trading, market, brokers... - City-Data Forum

BestintheWest · 08-12-2011, 10:01 PM

I found this to be interesting reading from some pretty astute investors. Read the entire article including page 2.

How low will stocks go? - Howard Gold's No-Nonsense Investing - MarketWatch

a34dadsf · 08-13-2011, 03:16 AM

These days all these articles mean nothing.

I could find 1,000 articles saying the market is going lower.

I could find 100 articles saying the market is going to be wiped out blah blah blah.

I could find 1,000 articles saying the market is going higher.

and I could find 100 articles saying the market is headed for the moon.

At the end of the day, no one has the crystal ball.

mathjak107 · 08-13-2011, 03:24 AM

why people think anyone knows whats next escapes me... odds are whatever we think will not be the outcome anyway.

how many predicted soaring interest rates when qe2 stopped..? i would say 90% of those who follow this stuff. soooo here we are at the lowest rates since 2008

NJBest · 08-13-2011, 05:42 AM

Aren't interest rates controlled though? In this case, interest rates are a result of policy.

a34dadsf · 08-13-2011, 05:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mathjak107

why people think anyone knows whats next escapes me... odds are whatever we think will not be the outcome anyway.

how many predicted soaring interest rates when qe2 stopped..? i would say 90% of those who follow this stuff. soooo here we are at the lowest rates since 2008

Yea its so unpredictable. Anything can happen. Who would have expected that the US gets downgraded so people flock to buy the downgraded treasuries???

a34dadsf · 08-13-2011, 05:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NJBest

Aren't interest rates controlled though? In this case, interest rates are a result of policy.

That policy can change and often changes with economic conditions.

mathjak107 · 08-13-2011, 05:53 AM

short term rates are controlled by the fed. long term rates are controlled by investors as they see it..

many times the 2 dont see eye to eye.

the inverted yield curve we had in 2008 was because the fed was raising short term rates while investors didnt see inflation as an issue and they bid long term rates lower than short term rates. its not supposed to be like that and they say thats a sign a recession is a given. once again the bond investors called that one right as we fell in to the debacle right after..

qe2 was supposed to lower rates as the fed tried to influence the longer end of the market they dont control . investors again saw it differently and bond rates rose from inflation fears as the fed tried to lower them.

NJBest · 08-13-2011, 05:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a34dadsf

That policy can change and often changes with economic conditions.

I understand that.... it just seems odd to predict that interest rates will go up. I would rather suspect predictions of inflation.

Anyways, that was then. As for now, we don't have to worry about that kind of change for another two years.

2018 · 08-13-2011, 09:55 AM

Lions, and tigers, and bears! Oh, my!

mathjak107 · 08-13-2011, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NJBest

I understand that.... it just seems odd to predict that interest rates will go up. I would rather suspect predictions of inflation.

Anyways, that was then. As for now, we don't have to worry about that kind of change for another two years.

with so many out of work,cut salaries and parts of the economy like food and energy sucking away what little money most have a slow down is more in the cards than inflation