If Netflix hits a Low Soon is it Safe to Buy? (daytrading, investment)
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Well, I missed the run up listening to you guys here! I was gonna buy in at maybe 54 -55!
Don't embarrass yourself on these forums lol. When it comes to investing, almost every week there is a I shoulda woulda coulda moment. Blaming anyone BUT yourself makes you look stupid, especially blaming people on this thread.
1. You asked if NFLX was a good LONG TERM investment. Listen to my quote, "However, I would stay away from the stock now unless you are willing to go LONG term." A couple days is definitely not long term.
2. You never mentioned your target price. Who is to say you wouldn't have sold it yesterday when it was up only 2%, who is to say you wouldn't have sold it when it was up 6% or 11%. Would you have sold it today? It could do a 180 degree turn just as fast, but once again I will tell you, long term I believe NFLX is fine.
As a NFLX customer, I think that you would be nuts to invest even in the short run. The streaming division doesn't have much in the way of variety, or speed of adding new releases. The split between the DVD and streaming divisions has permanently pissed off a lot of customers and I just don't see where their growth is going to come from.
11 whole percent? Considering it was over $120 just a few months ago, and it closed today at $62.58, I wouldn't say it's up, and I'm not wrong about the underlying business. This is a poorly managed company with an unspectacular product selection and it is still overvalued. Swing trade it all you want, but don't invest in this thing on any type of long term basis.
I agree with the bolded.
When good day or swing opportunities present themselves, I will be all over NFLX. But based on the chart analyis, I would say it's not a good long-term stock pick. Just because a product looks good, doesn't mean that it is a given that its stock value will go up. Many stocks fizzle out because of company mismanagement or the fickleness of the public.
When looking at tech stocks like Netflix, I would look at what their product actually is: Movie delivery. For that reason, I wouldn't purchase Netflix, or other companies like SiriusXM. We are already seeing huge fights in TV media between the studios that produce shows (or fund shows by buying them hoping to use them for ad revenue) and the companies that deliver the product (cable/satellite). We had fights from traditional radio vs. satellite radio. We have had the issues with the Big Ten and their sports products vs. TV media delivery companies.
Companies are trying to fight technology when it starts to turn against them. The actual companies that produce the products (shows, movies, music) want more and more control over everything with the product: Production through delivery to the end user. For commerical supported media (TV shows), the large media companies want more control and money from the suppliers.
Years ago I stopped going to the movies: Ticketes too costly, food and drink too costly, too many distractions in some cases. So I switched and started going to physical Blockbuster stores. Eventually, I found it easier to just rent DVDs through the mail with Blockbuster. Blockbuster On-line wasn't too bad, but they didn't offer some shows I wanted to watch (mostly sci-fi) that were a few years old. So I eventually switched to Netflix. I've burned through most of the TV shows I was interested in. I'm down to about 20ish movies and will eventually have to re-evaluate my subscription. Do I want to cut down to one or two DVDs/month, or just spent a little extra and buy them through Xfinity On-Demand? I won't pay for higher broadband speeds through my internet provider, then pay more for on-line watching with Netflix. It would likely be just as much to buy the slightly more On-Demand movies.
read the threads from those who were so sure of the path of apple and were soooooooo wrong.
it really does not matter what you think or when anyone tells you it is safe to buy.
Exactly. No one has a clear crystal ball in regards to picking stocks on this forum. Its littered w people who've gotten slaughtered trading stocks. NO ONE knows where the floor is on that stock (AAPL)
Well, I missed the run up listening to you guys here! I was gonna buy in at maybe 54 -55!
Did you buy at 60 in early November?
Guess what I did 15 minutes before earnings. I shorted the stock at 103.50.
It's now 168.50. Loss of 65.00 per share.
But hold the phone.
I used options to hedge my position. A big decline and the short was a winner. But that did not happen.
I bought the Feb. 97.50 call option for $11.00. That option is now worth about $72.00.
Gain on the option of 61 and loss on the stock of 65 = 4.00. Not bad to have been so wrong.
But hold the phone.
I sold the weekly 140 put for $3.15. That expired worthless. Now, that 4.00 loss is only 85 cents. I have 3 more weekly's to sell more puts to make that 85 cents turn into a gain, all on a short position that went very wrong.
So, what made this work out well for me. A call option.
Options are an increasingly used tool by people who are new to the stock market.
NFLX can go to $300 and it won't affect my position at all.
Guess what I did 15 minutes before earnings. I shorted the stock at 103.50.
It's now 168.50. Loss of 65.00 per share.
But hold the phone.
I used options to hedge my position. A big decline and the short was a winner. But that did not happen.
I bought the Feb. 97.50 call option for $11.00. That option is now worth about $72.00.
Gain on the option of 61 and loss on the stock of 65 = 4.00. Not bad to have been so wrong.
But hold the phone.
I sold the weekly 140 put for $3.15. That expired worthless. Now, that 4.00 loss is only 85 cents. I have 3 more weekly's to sell more puts to make that 85 cents turn into a gain, all on a short position that went very wrong.
So, what made this work out well for me. A call option.
Options are an increasingly used tool by people who are new to the stock market.
NFLX can go to $300 and it won't affect my position at all.
Very smart!
I wish I bought it! That stock has gone up like crazy in the past week. I have never seen anything like it in my time of watching stocks.
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