When do you think the next cyclical bear market in stocks is going to happen? (bonds, broker)

[BigCityDreamer]

The stock market has enjoyed a strong cyclical bull market for the last 5 years. But those of us who have been in this game long enough know that all good things must eventually come to an end. Bear markets always follow bull markets.

So, based on your knowledge and experience, when do you predict that the next bear market decline of 20% or more will begin to happen? Please vote in the poll also.

Of course, I understand that no one knows this for sure. But I'd like to hear your ideas.

[bmw335xi]

Well, based on my knowledge and experience, it is never good to guess when a bear or bull market will start. If it is a bull market, be a bull. If it is a bear market, be a bear. With that being said, for the sake of this thread, I would guess 1-3 years because Sarah Palin might win the GOP nomination.

[stoutboy]

I pray for the bear every night before I lay me down to sleep. I miss those cheap shares ala 2008!

[EmeraldCityWanderer]

I don't think there is a certain time frame. Indicators can show when things might be ready for the next business cycle. You can see full employment as time to start moving money (~5% from the 2000's), or if a bubble happens in the broader market (price points go nearly vertical), or consumer sentiment goes nuts (claims of a DOW 30,000), or stable stocks/bonds are at a low (and sometimes even declared dead by some analysts). Right now people are still very pessimistic and it seems like the general market is jumping at noises (big drops in small news just to recover).

It's happened a few times over the years during the recovery where things just kind of drift. I am personally not too worried, and really actively trying to make money market timing always seems to leave people broker than the were before. As long as you have good comapnies, and well diversified investments, you should weather the markets.

[Cameron60]

Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer

The stock market has enjoyed a strong cyclical bull market for the last 5 years. But those of us who have been in this game long enough know that all good things must eventually come to an end. Bear markets always follow bull markets.

So, based on your knowledge and experience, when do you predict that the next bear market decline of 20% or more will begin to happen? Please vote in the poll also.

Of course, I understand that no one knows this for sure. But I'd like to hear your ideas.

When? good question
How much of a bear? It think a lot more than 20%

[MrWillys]

2015 to 2016 will be a soft downturn based on historical 7 year cycles.

[jimhcom]

This is not rocket science. The tightening of money by both the Fed and by China's central bank is going to have the effect that tightening always has, which is pressure on debt purchased positions which in turn forces selling.
This is called deleveraging.
The severity of the decline is going to be directly correlated to the amount of debt or the level of margin in the market.
Unfortunately, todays market is at the highest levels of margin in history. You do the math.

[ToriaT]

I think there will be a major correction in the market at least once every three years, then it will creep up again and top itself only to fall again at some point.

[vrhunski]

Originally Posted by ToriaT

I think there will be a major correction in the market at least once every three years, then it will creep up again and top itself only to fall again at some point.

No one can say for sure. It could last next 10 years situation like this.

[mysticaltyger]

I don't think we ever left the cyclical bear market that started in 2000. The previous cyclical bear started in 1966 and didn't end until 1982. 18-20 years for cyclical bear markets is pretty normal.