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There was one big theme that formed the backbone of the presentations – global growth is no longer enough to service global debt. Creditors will have to take losses. Translated this means the banks that lent the most money with the least amount of reserves may go bust.
Technical indicators are useless if you can't grasp the fundamentals of how they influence other sectors of the economy. He's a bear because he's a goldbug, not because he understands anything.
There was one big theme that formed the backbone of the presentations – global growth is no longer enough to service global debt. Creditors will have to take losses. Translated this means the banks that lent the most money with the least amount of reserves may go bust.
Technical indicators are useless if you can't grasp the fundamentals of how they influence other sectors of the economy. He's a bear because he's a goldbug, not because he understands anything.
More doom and gloom. The bottom line is that we have hit a soft spot. There is no proof that we are heading into a recession.
Furthermore the stock market crashes when there is irrational bullishness. Right now there's too many bears for a market crash to occur. In fact near term doom and gloom is ALREADY priced into the market. Selling now would be like reacting to news AFTER the news has already occurred. That won't make you money.
Asia market is down again. When I've heard hedge fund managers said to get out of China, back in 2014, I sold my shares in the next rally and got out of international funds in 2015. International markets are still down.
More doom and gloom. The bottom line is that we have hit a soft spot. There is no proof that we are heading into a recession.
Furthermore the stock market crashes when there is irrational bullishness. Right now there's too many bears for a market crash to occur. In fact near term doom and gloom is ALREADY priced into the market. Selling now would be like reacting to news AFTER the news has already occurred. That won't make you money.
Valuations are too lofty without a reasonable expectation for growth. Low growth will not cause a crash, but it makes one ask... Is it worth the risk to hold stocks when they are already at their highs?
I don't think the risk is justified. Not at these price points. I said the same thing last year, sold my positions, and it saved me from taking real loses. Plenty of people do good in the stock market when they follow their intuition.
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