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1500-2000. Look at the data and applicable charts. Back in the early 80's, before the unprecedented 45 degree upward movement of the dow, that's where the Dow was.... I hope I'm wrong, but all the excessive, inflated growth is now over. Time for real, measured growth.....
My guess is approximately 620 on the SPX within the next month. The first downleg from the all-time high in 2007 was about 320 points. This 3rd downleg started around 940 at the beginning of the year.
Another guess is 600 using the most recent major decline from the beginning of the year. It should consist of three smaller declines. The first of the three was 140 points down from 945 to 805. I expect a bounce up to retest 740 soon followed by the final decline to 600 by the end of the month.
The final guess is using the first Nikkei crash as the model for the first major decline in the Dow. In that case, the Dow should drop to approximately 5200 before a trading range in which there are several 40-50% rallies over the next year before the final decline.
Well, I said it would be around 6000 by spring. People told me I was crazy, that it would never go that far down. This was in October. Now I'm saying between 3200 and 2800 by fall. And hopefully that's as far as it goes. That's makes my stock portfolio worth about what, 18% of what it was at the peak?
That's alright, I still have another 20 years to retirement.
I think the 1994-1995 lows may eventually be touched or breached by the SPX. I believe that was when the US financial asset bubble was intentionally created in response to several crises: the Orange County bankruptcy due to exotic derivatives, the Mexican Peso crisis, and the recession in Japan. The Nasdaq returned to the 1997-1998 lows in 2002. Historically, bubbles give back all of their gains and then some.
I got out in December of 2006. All of you that have said timing does not work are currently being proven wrong. I will wait until this bottoms out, and then for some optimism, then I can go back in. I have not lost anything, and I will catch the rise. In other words...HA, HA. Oh, and how low will this go? My bet is 4200.
Yes! The sky was falling last year at this time and I didn't notice. I invested more in Feb/Mar 2009 and am glad that I did.
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DOH 
