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Gold is still well below it’s all time highs ...but the more important issue is gold has always held positive real returns in 98% of all market downturns so you woulD really be betting the long shot in your bust scenario .
Peak to trough (gold price) in 2008 if I remember correctly gold went down by about 25%. I could see another similar situation unfolding on a larger scale.
Peak to trough (gold price) in 2008 if I remember correctly gold went down by about 25%. I could see another similar situation unfolding on a larger scale.
Gold was up in 2008 5% , it kept a positive real return, so it did just what it typically does and cushion the blow to equities, while providing positive real returns ...Long treasury bonds were up 34% In 2008 ...overall the model I use was up in 2008 by 2%, 2009 was up 8%
Last edited by mathjak107; 05-28-2020 at 02:51 PM..
Stocks down 37% , gold up 5% , long term treasuries up 34% short term treasuries up 6.68%
In 2009 we saw :
Stocks up 29% , gold up 24% , long term treasuries down 22% , short term treasuries up 1.44% .
So when one falters , others carry the ball with a proper mix ..
From Jan 2008 to dec 2009 stocks were down 10% cagr still , the model above was up 5% cagr
In 2008 my total bond fund was down and most had very little in returns ..so there are treasuries and then there are bonds and they don’t always respond the same
Last edited by mathjak107; 05-28-2020 at 02:54 PM..
Gold was up in 2008 5% , it kept a positive real return, so it did just what it typically does and cushion the blow to equities, while providing positive real returns ...Long treasury bonds were up 34% In 2008 ...overall the model I use was up in 2008 by 2%, 2009 was up 8%
We are talking about two different things. Peak to trough in 2008 gold was down 25% intra-year. I am saying between summer 2020 and summer 2021 we can see gold down 50% +/- intra-year peak to trough. Not total year returns.
We are talking about two different things. Peak to trough in 2008 gold was down 25% intra-year. I am saying between summer 2020 and summer 2021 we can see gold down 50% +/- intra-year peak to trough. Not total year returns.
I look at assets as they relate to each other and overall returns ...I don’t single them out and benchmark against some high anymore than I expect to sell a stock at a high.
I care about the portfolio working as a cohesive unit as the components do their job.
Whatever stocks do in this bust you speak of I expect long term treasuries to soar and as a minimum gold to hold a positive real return nor more...that means in relation to this drop in stocks golds slide is limited
Dave Ramsey says not to invest in gold because it's value is not backed by anything.
ha ha ha
dave ramsey gives some of the worst investment advice next to peter schiff and cramer telling everyone not to be worried about bear sterns .
in his book ramsey tells everyone an 8% draw rate is no problem in retirement too so scratch off retirement planning as his field too...
as far as gold , it has beaten the us equity markets the year to date , the last 3 years , came close to tying the 5 year and has beaten the markets the last 15 and 20 years ..
t wouldn't both going any further back since gold was not a main stream investment , it was pretty limited to the doomers and gold bugs as well as difficult and expensive to own .
the last 20 years has seen it evolve in to a mainstream investment being bought and sold like stocks ..so it was a different asset all together beyond 20 years backl .... dave is poor at judging investments
Last edited by mathjak107; 05-29-2020 at 02:31 AM..
Dave Ramsey says not to invest in gold because it's value is not backed by anything.
I've got mixed opinions on gold, but one thing is for sure -- it's held its value for 5,000 years, and unlike with paper currency, no government can produce it out of thin air. Gold will always have value.
I've got mixed opinions on gold, but one thing is for sure -- it's held its value for 5,000 years, and unlike with paper currency, no government can produce it out of thin air. Gold will always have value.
it is just another asset class today and unlike 30 years ago it plays a roll in many portfolio's and interacts with the other components in a far more powerful way as opposed to sitting as a static lump ....
when i rebalanced my gold in march and sold some to buy more equities it bought way more equities then that money in a total bond fund or cash instruments would have when rebalanced .... now all those extra equities are up nicely over the last month ...
so you can't look at it in isolation , even though it has beaten equities the last 20 years over most standardized time frames for bench marking performance it performs totally different in a portfolio with rebalancing going on .
don't forget unlike rebalancing from equities in to a total bond fund which has less growth potential then equities , gold and long term treasuries can be more powerful than equities at times , when it is their day in the sun .
Dave Ramsey says not to invest in gold because it's value is not backed by anything.
True...the original economy of confidence has nothing backing it except human acceptance for about 3,000 years.
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