Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Gold will hit $5K-10K/ounce within the next 5-10 years.
It may, but that doesn't make the returns of the past 9 years any better. 0% vs 245%, it has objectively been a terrible investment for the past 9 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wells5
Think of gold as a hedge against hyper inflation not as an investment. One day the world will say enough to massive US dollar creation.
What percentage of your portfolio should be a hedge against one (out of many) possible disaster scenarios? If you put enough of your portfolio in such a hedge to provide for you in case that one disaster scenario does come to pass, is what you have left to invest enough for you in case that one disaster scenario does not come to pass? 0% return is pretty devastating if it's a significant percentage of your portfolio.
There were some years in that 9 year timeframe where gold had a spectacular gain, but that's only because there were other years where it had an equally spectacular loss. It's important to look at data yourself so you get the whole picture.
It may, but that doesn't make the returns of the past 9 years any better. 0% vs 245%, it has objectively been a terrible investment for the past 9 years.
What percentage of your portfolio should be a hedge against one (out of many) possible disaster scenarios? If you put enough of your portfolio in such a hedge to provide for you in case that one disaster scenario does come to pass, is what you have left enough for you in case that one disaster scenario does not come to pass? 0% return is pretty devastating if it's a significant percentage of your portfolio.
There were some years in that 9 years where gold had a spectacular gain, but that's only because there were other years where it had an equally spectacular loss. It's important to look at data yourself so you get the whole picture.
again , the last 20 years gold beat equities and long term treasuries beat equities .
the last 15 years gold beat equities
the last year gold beat equities and long term treasuries beat equities .
ytd the same .
the only time frame that matters is the one you own it over. gold is far and away my biggest gainer this year .
here is a yearly comparison between gold , long term treasury's , short term treasuries and the total market and the results from that all important rebalancing.
gold is total;ly different when you can harness those big up years and buy more equities rather then if it sits as a lump and goes up and down in isolation .
very different results in a portfolio strategy then isolation
It may, but that doesn't make the returns of the past 9 years any better. 0% vs 245%, it has objectively been a terrible investment for the past 9 years.
An excellent example of torturing the data. We get it. You don't like gold but wish you had bought it Thanksgiving two years ago, up 46% since then.
Thanks this is helpful. I have a WSJ subscription so it was interesting to read the article.
Makes me nervous of the decline in gold prices possibly going forward as I've bought way too much GLD I think haha.
Haha no problem!
Looking at the chart, we might see a crash because looking into the 2016 election, everyone expected a big crash... when no crash happened, GLD crash... I see similarities to now where everyone thought we would crash after the election. This time we have a global pandemic though where as last election people were just scared of Trump pre-election, so we could see an actual crash later... but we'll see.
Gold seems to have particular appeal to two sorts of investors. The first has doomsday fears, or more charitably, regards modern central-banks to be a pernicious scam, and is leery of burgeoning public-sector debt. The second treats gold as one of several competing investment-buckets, with periodic rebalancing between the buckets. For the former, former, gold is literally a precious resource while everything else founders. For the latter, gold is a useful hedge in temporarily desperate times, and a repository of value to be redeployed elsewhere during good-times.
But even a casual glance at a historical chart reveals a curious behavior of gold: it sits moribund for years, then zooms up, then settles back down. It's highly volatile. Sure, it may outpace stocks over even fairly long periods. But en route is oscillates a lot. Is that good for one's psyche?
As for the topic of inflation hedges, and gold vs. real-estate.... well, in that case I choose gold. Gold isn't saddled with property tax. Gold doesn't require lawn care, unclogging toilets or a new roof. Gold has no nasty neighbors and doesn't fall in value if the local schools suffer a reduction in rating. Gold can be sold almost instantaneously and almost at no cost, whereas real-estate incurs a 6% commission and maybe a 6-month wait.
In the last ~9 years, the total return on gold is approximately 0.78%.
.
You rebalance. ASA more than tripled in value recently, well above the 5 percent that I like to keep it at. You either rebalance periodically or set thresholds above and below targets for rebalancing.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
