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Old 12-04-2020, 09:48 AM
 
3,372 posts, read 1,558,660 times
Reputation: 4597

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Quote:
Originally Posted by amdda01 View Post
Heart,

U locked-n-loaded?

S&P 3692.

Thanks, amdda01. Was just about to post. Just let my final SPY piece go just now at $369 from my initial SPY $230 positioning from mid-March. That wraps up about a 40% realized total portfolio gain for 2020. Congrats to all that followed along with the "moonshot" call back from the mid-March lows. Has been a hell of a run since then.

I am basically 100% cash now after today (I do have a very small initial positioning in UUP). I think there is a possibility we see SPX 3900-4100 in a final blow-off top in the very short-term. And everyone should be familiar with my bust call starting by the end of this year and carrying over into a good portion of 2021.

 
Old 12-04-2020, 10:21 AM
 
60 posts, read 44,348 times
Reputation: 41
Heart,


Are you holding off on gold?


Originally Posted by heart84
Gold will hit $5K-10K/ounce within the next 5-10 years.
 
Old 12-04-2020, 11:02 AM
 
3,372 posts, read 1,558,660 times
Reputation: 4597
Quote:
Originally Posted by amdda01 View Post
Heart,


Are you holding off on gold?


Originally Posted by heart84
Gold will hit $5K-10K/ounce within the next 5-10 years.

amdda01, I don't own and am not buying any paper gold right now. Not buying physical gold either right now. You will make good money at current levels looking out 5-10 years, but I suspect there will be a better buying opportunity ahead.

I do own a lot of physical silver that I have accumulated over the years at a cost average somewhere in the $10 range. I like both gold and silver looking into the future, but view silver as having more % upside and being more accessible to the masses when the time comes.
 
Old 12-04-2020, 11:15 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
31,341 posts, read 14,176,868 times
Reputation: 27858
Quote:
Originally Posted by heart84 View Post
Thanks, amdda01. Was just about to post. Just let my final SPY piece go just now at $369 from my initial SPY $230 positioning from mid-March. That wraps up about a 40% realized total portfolio gain for 2020. Congrats to all that followed along with the "moonshot" call back from the mid-March lows. Has been a hell of a run since then.

I am basically 100% cash now after today (I do have a very small initial positioning in UUP). I think there is a possibility we see SPX 3900-4100 in a final blow-off top in the very short-term. And everyone should be familiar with my bust call starting by the end of this year and carrying over into a good portion of 2021.
It's just about time. What might trigger a "bust" at this stage?

How about..... democrats win both senate races in GA giving them full control of the govt.

How about.... vaccines don't work as well as intended. Virus rates on.

How about......further lockdowns of the economy

How about.... here's a real wild card: certain states refuse to certify their electors and the election goes to the House of Representatives -- and Trump wins because each state gets one vote and 26 are controlled by the Republicans. That might bring on a bit of civil unrest, to say the least.
 
Old 12-04-2020, 12:13 PM
 
3,372 posts, read 1,558,660 times
Reputation: 4597
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
It's just about time. What might trigger a "bust" at this stage?

How about..... democrats win both senate races in GA giving them full control of the govt.

How about.... vaccines don't work as well as intended. Virus rates on.

How about......further lockdowns of the economy

How about.... here's a real wild card: certain states refuse to certify their electors and the election goes to the House of Representatives -- and Trump wins because each state gets one vote and 26 are controlled by the Republicans. That might bring on a bit of civil unrest, to say the least.

The media talking heads always want a singular headline, but my guess is a combination of factors like surprise Chinese and European defaults, "stimulus" underwhelming, vaccine hype diminishing, more lockdowns over the winter, and layoffs accelerating.
 
Old 12-04-2020, 05:56 PM
 
Location: Sector 001
15,936 posts, read 12,236,371 times
Reputation: 16104
It should be pointed out that a lot of this economic activity is being fueled by penalty free 401K loans. Everyone in my department makes $25-30/hour and around 80% of them have taken out 401K loans... one guy just took out $16,000. The guy I work with has taken out $40,000 through the course of the year. People literally have no self control when they find out they have access to this money.

The feds take 10% so I wonder how many people will get it paid back within the time frame.
 
Old 12-04-2020, 06:27 PM
 
17,825 posts, read 15,478,142 times
Reputation: 26579
One of the pieces of advice I got when I started my IRA and then later 401K, was to don't touch the money, do not withdraw any of it, and keep it for use in retirement. I followed that advice and never took out a 401K loan, not even to buy my first house. The onus was on me to save and come up with the $$$$ to pay for things without using retirement funds.
 
Old 12-04-2020, 07:45 PM
 
4,149 posts, read 3,887,609 times
Reputation: 10932
Quote:
Originally Posted by sholomar View Post
It should be pointed out that a lot of this economic activity is being fueled by penalty free 401K loans. Everyone in my department makes $25-30/hour and around 80% of them have taken out 401K loans... one guy just took out $16,000. The guy I work with has taken out $40,000 through the course of the year. People literally have no self control when they find out they have access to this money.

The feds take 10% so I wonder how many people will get it paid back within the time frame.
Is there an exemption with 401K withdrawals due to covid? Not that I am going to pursue it, just curious
 
Old 12-04-2020, 10:04 PM
 
3,372 posts, read 1,558,660 times
Reputation: 4597
Quote:
Originally Posted by sholomar View Post
It should be pointed out that a lot of this economic activity is being fueled by penalty free 401K loans. Everyone in my department makes $25-30/hour and around 80% of them have taken out 401K loans... one guy just took out $16,000. The guy I work with has taken out $40,000 through the course of the year. People literally have no self control when they find out they have access to this money.

The feds take 10% so I wonder how many people will get it paid back within the time frame.

Not to worry, sholomar. Since "stocks never go down" it is just a "personal ATM machine." Been hearing that recently about the kind of behavior you just described from people I know who are making similar moves. I remember hearing this same type of script in 2006-2007 too.
 
Old 12-05-2020, 02:03 AM
 
106,242 posts, read 108,237,907 times
Reputation: 79781
Quote:
Originally Posted by lottamoxie View Post
One of the pieces of advice I got when I started my IRA and then later 401K, was to don't touch the money, do not withdraw any of it, and keep it for use in retirement. I followed that advice and never took out a 401K loan, not even to buy my first house. The onus was on me to save and come up with the $$$$ to pay for things without using retirement funds.
i consider that money sacred ground .

it is not to be touched before retirement
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