Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Looks like a steady performer. How would you compare it to say... M/TGT (near comparison) TSCO or COST?
No worries if that's the wrong way of looking at it. Just curious.
Regarding M (Macys), that's not a company I've ever thought much about, but the market hasn't been kind to it over the past 20 years...
At the same time, in recent quarters M has had spectacular beats of analyst concensus:
Resulting in excellent performance by comparison the past 6 months or so...
Still, its Return on Equity, Return on Assets, and Return on Investment is below the average of multiline retailers.
At the end of the day, its Return on Invested Capital and Free Cash Flow Yield are not as attractive as the same numbers for TJX.
***
Regarding TGT (Target)... I also own TGT.
Regarding COST (Costco)... I also own COST
Regarding TSCO (Tractor Supply Company)... I don't own it, but wish I had bought it 20 years ago. I don't follow it at all, but it seems to do a great job at managing equity. I like its ROIC.
I've been in the semiconductor business my entire adult life. It will always be cyclical, given its nature... long amounts of time required for manufacturing products, and also for adding manufacturing capacity.
With that said, I don't believe the current cycle is anywhere near its end. Take a look at this article from the SIA, which has a graph of industry revenue over the past 25 years (the blue line). Note that the upturns (trough to the next peak) from the two prior semi recessions ('01-'02, and '09) ran for 7 years and 9 years, respectively.
You can see that the most recent downturn actually started in 2018 and bottomed in 2019 (semiconductor recessions are not always the result of an economywide recession). At any rate, if history is our guide, this cycle has several years left in it.
Semis are interesting, and not just because of today’s supply shortage. Im hardly an expert in the industry, but I tend to think that the boom/bust cycles of the past are just that, the past. Semiconductor use is expanding massively, and not just in EVs, but almost everywhere in our lives - smart homes, smart appliances, medical/healthcare, gaming and metaverse, and on and on. NVDA is the beast in the space, but IMO very overvalued. I like TXN, sort of a quieter play in the space, not as sexy as NVDA or TSM, but a solid DGI stock. I also like the semi equipment makers AMAT and ASML.
Agree. 10-15 years ago semiconductors were more limited in usage, but now you can find them in literally everything. IoT / smart homes / smart appliances / smart cars, etc. will continue to see chip demand increase. I'm long INTC, ASML, NVDA, and also have quite a bit of SMH (semi ETF).
Intel has kind of stalled out the last several years, but they are highly profitable and finally have an engineer back at the helm with Pat Gelsinger back now as CEO. He did great things at VMWare and I feel a lot more confident about him bringing Intel back from the stagnant years of Brian Krzanich and Bob Swan. Intel's new Alder Lake chip supposedly will be 25% faster than AMD's Ryzen, which is itself a very good chip. I think Intel is also an undervalued US / national security play and TSMC is a China risk. And they are a play on autonomous driving with Mobileye, which doesn't get as much press as Tesla and Waymo but they are a real contender and partnering with a lot of OEM's.
I have NVDA and it feels a little overcooked right now. PE of 73 vs. INTC at 9.5 and QCOM at 15. But I still think it is a great long term play--it just needs to come down some before I would consider adding.
Agree. 10-15 years ago semiconductors were more limited in usage, but now you can find them in literally everything. IoT / smart homes / smart appliances / smart cars, etc. will continue to see chip demand increase. I'm long INTC, ASML, NVDA, and also have quite a bit of SMH (semi ETF).
I've been in the semiconductor business my entire adult life. It will always be cyclical, given its nature... long amounts of time required for manufacturing products, and also for adding manufacturing capacity.
With that said, I don't believe the current cycle is anywhere near its end. Take a look at this article from the SIA, which has a graph of industry revenue over the past 25 years (the blue line). Note that the upturns (trough to the next peak) from the two prior semi recessions ('01-'02, and '09) ran for 7 years and 9 years, respectively.
You can see that the most recent downturn actually started in 2018 and bottomed in 2019 (semiconductor recessions are not always the result of an economywide recession). At any rate, if history is our guide, this cycle has several years left in it.
I spent far too much of my professional career in semiconductors as well. I agree with your assessment. I expect the current semiconductor shortages impacting automobile & appliance manufacturing, for example, will be with us for 5 more years. I get a chuckle when I hear talking heads on TV who can barely spell semiconductor or microprocessor offering their opinions and prognostications. They just don't understand the industry. The modern high end microprocessor is the most complex thing ever invented by or manufactured by mankind. Indeed, high end semiconductor manufacturing is only this far >< from magic, where any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
13,059 posts, read 7,491,199 times
Reputation: 9787
Buying $KLAC, a little late but still not a bad entry price, IMO.
USA also needs to bring back/establish chip packaging. Domestic founderies without packaging and test mean little for national security.
Agree. 10-15 years ago semiconductors were more limited in usage, but now you can find them in literally everything. IoT / smart homes / smart appliances / smart cars, etc. will continue to see chip demand increase. I'm long INTC, ASML, NVDA, and also have quite a bit of SMH (semi ETF).
Intel has kind of stalled out the last several years, but they are highly profitable and finally have an engineer back at the helm with Pat Gelsinger back now as CEO. He did great things at VMWare and I feel a lot more confident about him bringing Intel back from the stagnant years of Brian Krzanich and Bob Swan. Intel's new Alder Lake chip supposedly will be 25% faster than AMD's Ryzen, which is itself a very good chip. I think Intel is also an undervalued US / national security play and TSMC is a China risk. And they are a play on autonomous driving with Mobileye, which doesn't get as much press as Tesla and Waymo but they are a real contender and partnering with a lot of OEM's.
I have NVDA and it feels a little overcooked right now. PE of 73 vs. INTC at 9.5 and QCOM at 15. But I still think it is a great long term play--it just needs to come down some before I would consider adding.
NVDA has earnings Wednesday, seems like their is a lot more downside to this earnings report than upside. Not that I don't expect it to be a good earnings report but I feel like they need to blow it out of the water to justify their current valuation.
NVDA has earnings Wednesday, seems like their is a lot more downside to this earnings report than upside. Not that I don't expect it to be a good earnings report but I feel like they need to blow it out of the water to justify their current valuation.
A blow out quarter with a price spike down is a buying opportunity. I won't be adding more before they report. I wouldn't mind a 10-20% pull back here.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
