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Old Yesterday, 07:58 AM
 
89,017 posts, read 86,637,209 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lookingaround12345 View Post
The thing the passive index crowd doesn’t seem to understand is you don’t have to beat the index year after year. If you can make a big beat once or twice that’s life changing money. They just won’t accept the fact there is more than one way of doing things. If you can make a few trades that do well and then roll that into an index fund you will do better than passive traders.

The past three years what I have done has shaved a decade or so off of what would have been in the SPY.

They don’t seem to understand you can use short term trading as an accoutrement and compliment to long term investing. As you said this isn’t too hard if you have one thing you specialize in and then start doing the rotation stocks as trades when they are hot.

Not everybody can do this but they tend to assume that nobody can do it. They come with some made up number like more than 90% of people fail at trading. That means 10% are able and thats a lot of people.

The most successful people at investing have short mid and long term goals.
Spot on .

Funds like fidelity contra don’t win every year but when they miss they miss by a bit , but when they pull a head they pull a head by a lot more.

The end result is for as long as I own it which is decades we beat a total market fund
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Old Yesterday, 08:07 AM
 
793 posts, read 243,759 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
Spot on .

Funds like fidelity contra don’t win every year but when they miss they miss by a bit , but when they pull a head they pull a head by a lot more.

The end result is for as long as I own it which is decades we beat a total market fund
Another example is the long termer that doesn’t believe in individual stock picking. So what do they do? They buy something like ARKK which is the riskiest type of individual stock picking you can get. They somehow think this is safer because it’s an “ETF”. It makes me shake my head sometimes.
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Old Yesterday, 08:31 AM
 
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
8,782 posts, read 3,873,669 times
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Combined trading portfolio: +50% YTD. As of today 0730PT

Last edited by leastprime; Yesterday at 08:40 AM..
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Old Yesterday, 12:29 PM
 
Location: moved
10,881 posts, read 6,693,573 times
Reputation: 18296
Quote:
Originally Posted by lookingaround12345 View Post
Not everybody can do this but they tend to assume that nobody can do it. They come with some made up number like more than 90% of people fail at trading. That means 10% are able and thats a lot of people.
Such odds would terrify me! I'd like to get into ventures where of those who make a sincere effort, maybe 70% succeed.

Imagine if only 10% of entering freshmen managed to graduate from college. With those odds, I'd not bother to enroll, even if I had a scholarship. Or the statistic that some 90% of small businesses fail. This is why I have not the least interest in starting my own business, even in the hypothetical presence of a good idea or even a sound business-plan.
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Old Yesterday, 06:10 PM
 
4,631 posts, read 2,869,334 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lookingaround12345 View Post
Another example is the long termer that doesn’t believe in individual stock picking. So what do they do? They buy something like ARKK which is the riskiest type of individual stock picking you can get. They somehow think this is safer because it’s an “ETF”. It makes me shake my head sometimes.
Have you ever met high school sports guy who thinks he was one sprained ankle away from playing in the big leagues?

The amount of people who think they can make the right moves in the market is probably just as grand.
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Old Yesterday, 06:25 PM
 
4,631 posts, read 2,869,334 times
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To the person who gave me rep just to call me arrogant and clueless, thank you, slugger!! I hope the ankle doesn’t bother you too much when you’re hauling groceries in from the minivan.
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Old Yesterday, 07:16 PM
 
Location: US
22,841 posts, read 21,948,236 times
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I personally find trading less risky than a forget it and leave it portfolio, but understand 99.9% of people are better off using a forget it and leave it portfolio. It’s not that I’m smart, it just takes a lot of time, work and dedication to learn how to properly trade.
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Old Yesterday, 08:53 PM
 
4,631 posts, read 2,869,334 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bmw335xi View Post
I personally find trading less risky than a forget it and leave it portfolio, but understand 99.9% of people are better off using a forget it and leave it portfolio. It’s not that I’m smart, it just takes a lot of time, work and dedication to learn how to properly trade.
You may enjoy it.

Say you work 50 hours a week. You sleep 7 hours a day. Then you have your daily maintenance of eating, showering, travel time, workout, mundane chores. You maybe have a couple hours left each day. Even spending 30 minutes is a tremendous drain on your actual productive time for leisure or other pursuits.

Now, one could try to invest the time and effort into investing actively like that. All to come up with a plan that was most likely already done far better by people far smarter. Do solo investors doing their research make out better? Sure. An exceptionally small amount. But at what actual cost? And are they statistically significantly better?

My time is also valuable in a professional sense. I’d rather specialize in my narrow domain and farm out other activities to others who are specialized in that area.
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Old Yesterday, 10:33 PM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
21,664 posts, read 22,839,978 times
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Believe in the bull.

That's about it.
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Old Today, 07:29 AM
 
793 posts, read 243,759 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
Have you ever met high school sports guy who thinks he was one sprained ankle away from playing in the big leagues?

The amount of people who think they can make the right moves in the market is probably just as grand.
You ever met the guy that didn’t sit around crying and making excuses why they can’t succeed? Part of the reason is 90% of people have this can not do attitude. The other part is usually the time. Throw in all the doubters and haters that bang the table saying you must cost average ETFs like zombies high on some religion i of the church of the acceptance of under to average performance and there you go.

Most people never try or never try for long enough it takes time to become skilled. I think almost anybody could do it if they devoted themselves. 90% of the people have already brainwashed themselves into thinking it can’t be done.
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