How long will it take the S&P to recover? (negative, 2015)

[treasurekidd]

I think there’s more downside risk than upside potential at current levels over the next 6 months.

So…6 more months of buying opportunities? I’m ok with that. 6 months, a year, that’s short term to me. None of the 36 stocks on my watchlist are in my buy zones after this recent rally, so I wouldn’t mind seeing prices come down a bit for a while.

Your downside risk is my buying opportunity. It’s all in your mindset I suppose.

“All past declines look like an opportunity, all future declines look like a risk.” - Morgan Housel

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by treasurekidd

So…6 more months of buying opportunities? I’m ok with that. 6 months, a year, that’s short term to me. None of the 36 stocks on my watchlist are in my buy zones after this recent rally, so I wouldn’t mind seeing prices come down a bit for a while.

Your downside risk is my buying opportunity. It’s all in your mindset I suppose.

“All past declines look like an opportunity, all future declines look like a risk.” - Morgan Housel

When downside risk outweighs upside potential, I add hedges within my brokerage account. That’s all it changes for me. And perhaps I raise some cash and/or hold off on deploying new capital until there is a pullback. Similar to what you are doing by waiting to add to names within your watchlist until they are in your buy zone.

[FIRE42]

Originally Posted by treasurekidd

So…6 more months of buying opportunities? I’m ok with that. 6 months, a year, that’s short term to me. None of the 36 stocks on my watchlist are in my buy zones after this recent rally, so I wouldn’t mind seeing prices come down a bit for a while.

Your downside risk is my buying opportunity. It’s all in your mindset I suppose.

“All past declines look like an opportunity, all future declines look like a risk.” - Morgan Housel

I love that quote. Here's another one that seems to be a good fit too, “It's better to be approximately right than exactly wrong.” - Carveth Read

[JGC97]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

Maybe it’s just me but hard guy to listen to yikes

A lot of people say that. He uses that crazy voice on purpose. He tries to make his videos funny and entertaining as well as informative. But it's not for everyone. The information in his message is good, though.

[My Kind Of Town]

In another ~12 weeks, the first four answers will be incorrect.

[My Kind Of Town]

It’s been 660 days since the S&P made a record high. Or just under 22 months. Will it hit a new high within the next 15 months or will the fifth answer of 3+ years be correct? Historically, election years are far worse for the equity market than pre-election years. Should be interesting.

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

I guessed within 12 months we will be back in an uptrend, but we’ll see and that doesn’t mean we will be at new highs either. This is just a guess.

Bmw: how have you fared in the market over the past two years? I know previously you said you had a lot of success following the great financial crisis but are you seeing similar trading success over the past two years as the market chops?

[BeerGeek40]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

It’s been 660 days since the S&P made a record high. Or just under 22 months. Will it hit a new high within the next 15 months or will the fifth answer of 3+ years be correct? Historically, election years are far worse for the equity market than pre-election years. Should be interesting.

It's nice to see that there is at least one other bear on these boards, sometimes I feel like I'm going up the creek and without a paddle here.

Bottom line: the market hasn't collapsed. But the days of throwing darts and getting 10% returns are over. There's still money to be made, but you have to be more selective.

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by BeerGeek40

It's nice to see that there is at least one other bear on these boards, sometimes I feel like I'm going up the creek and without a paddle here.

Bottom line: the market hasn't collapsed. But the days of throwing darts and getting 10% returns are over. There's still money to be made, but you have to be more selective.

I’m not a bear in the sense that I’m not shorting equities right now. I am, however, avoiding anything big tech related which includes SPY as a result. After TLT, my largest holding right now is NEE. There are deals out there but you have to look a little harder to find them than in the past. And there are certainly plenty of traps out there as well.

[StealthRabbit]

Originally Posted by BeerGeek40

It's nice to see that there is at least one other bear on these boards, sometimes I feel like I'm going up the creek and without a paddle here.

Bottom line: the market hasn't collapsed. But the days of throwing darts and getting 10% returns are over. There's still money to be made, but you have to be more selective.

Yeah, rough days.
My accumulated returns on the Q's has fallen below 1000%
+652.75% Today.


I'm still alive and eating OK.
No need to withdraw funds, since been cash heavy for a yr.
Good time for harvesting losses or doing Roth rolls.

$8k due for 2nd half Property taxes is the next check to write (Oct 30), but so-be-it (Fixed costs)

How long will it take the S&P to recover?
Seems it will take a while longer now...

Nothing promising coming out of Fed Reserve or WA DC.

I think that crew is 'sleeping', as they could ACT and stabilize money markets / commerce / lending / future investment planning for corps. Guess they are giving us what we asked for (a service economy) minimal value add and capital investment, just lean and cheap services. If it feels good (and will buy you 2-4 yrs gravy...) just do it.