The TSLA Investment Thread (margin, credit, dividend, stock)
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1) Tesla is currently increasing margins as their production rate increases. That won't last forever, but right now it is not going down. Therefore of simple linear extrapolation of earnings based on production rates is reasonable for now.
2) Demand hasn't subsided. The numbers back that up.
3) There won't be enough competition supply to handle the total demand for EVs. All EV makers will benefit from the limited total supply for at last a few years.
4) New EV rebate in U.S. preferentially helps Tesla over other EV makers and obviously helps all EV makers vs ICE cars.
Like you bashers from a few years ago don't even have to whine about Tesla "not profitable" or "not profitable without reg credits" or "PE ratio is 1000 = bubble".
No, right now you are witnessing what we bulls all realized was in the numbers. The PE ratio had to be that high becuase it was going to come down very quickly as earnings ramped.
Right now Tesla's probably Q3 EPS annualized will be ~ $14. At a PE of 60 that's $840 share value. Not that far from current price. So Tesla's downside is somewhat limited and would only be realized if the market demand for EVs tanked (like in a bad recession).
New EV rebate in U.S. preferentially helps Tesla over other EV makers and obviously helps all EV makers vs ICE cars.
Are you sure?I dont think it benefits TSLA much,not even sure who would benefit?
We know TSLA can sell every EV it makes and at a good profit,but auto companies do not get a high PE,the auto industry is considered mature industry.
Also some day TSLA may pay a dividend .like F,GM,Toyota,Honda.
And gazing at crystal ball,Chinese cars are coming,Chinese cars are coming,just like in the past Japanese cars are coming,they came and they stayed
"Tesla cuts delivery waiting time for Model Y in China to a minimum of 4 weeks.
The waiting time for the rear-wheel drive Model Y sport utility vehicle is now four to eight weeks, while buyers of other versions of the SUV and Model 3 sedans need to wait for 12 to 20 weeks. Tesla previously said a buyer in China had to wait for eight to 24 weeks after placing an order for the best-selling models.
Tesla has completed a major upgrade of the production lines at its Shanghai plant, its most productive manufacturing hub, and is ramping up output with a target of making 22,000 Model 3 and Model Y cars combined each week."
Source: Zhang, Z, and Goh, B. ‘Tesla cuts delivery waiting time for Model Y in China to a minimum of 4 weeks’, Reuters, 18 August 2022, <https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-shortens-delivery-waiting-time-model-y-china-4-8-weeks-website-2022-08-18/>
According to jato.com, Tesla Model Y was the #1 selling vehicle in the D-SUV category for 1H22. The "D" category is the only one that increased YoY, but it doesn't sell the most as this "D" group are mid-sized SUVs. It'll be interesting to see if this trend toward a bigger SUV continues in Europe.
The Model 3 took the #2 spot, behind the BMW Series 3, in the D-segment for cars. Both cars were down in sales YoY, while the #3 Mercedes C-class increased in YoY sales.
Time will tell if Musk's thesis that the Model Y will become the #1 selling vehicle proves to be correct.
I definitely remember just laughing at Tesla, then a battery company, that was going to try and build a car company. In the beginning at least....
The idea of a new, non conglomerate, start-up making cars seemed so unrealistic. Tesla has done it though. While they've shown a path for others to follow, and in process converted people like me to think that indeed it is possible, I think a lot of these would be competitors are going to find out just hard hard and complicated running a vehicle production company is.
Even then I assumed if they were getting close enough, one of the existing automakers would snap them up for the tech. But at some point....volumes just shot up and the stock ceased being a two digit stock and tore into the hundreds. After that, the automakers were out.
It's really in its own class. They're making so much more money on every car delivered than the competition. They're worth two Toyotas at the moment.
Some Tesla fans are beta testing Tesla FSD's ability to make an emergency stop using their own children. A video was posted recently showing Tesla FSD mowing down a dummy child several times during testing, and now you have Tesla influencers so invested in keeping the FSD charade going that they are using their own children as guinea pigs to prove FSD isn't faulty.
Not surprising that most don't even understand how Tesla's FSD software operates.
It creates a depth map that can find objects in the driving space. It also uses an object classifier to label objects as vulnerable users, or other common obstacles.
The models can indeed not classify the dummy as a human nor any other object to avoid, and therefore proceed to run it over, and the models would be working correctly.
That's not to say that FSD can't screw up. It is an L2 system as you assuredly must know. Let me know what other L2 systems can drive city streets and detected almost all vulnerable road users. Glass is 90% full, not 10% empty.
So FSD running over a dummy is fine? I’m lost because the fully self driving software should do something to avoid an object in its path shouldnt it? Or no, running it over is just fine if it can tell the object isn’t alive?
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