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I have no idea but my feeling is that we are headed for a market stumble at some point that will be considerable .
We already have people choosing to buy this or that as extra money going for one thing leaves less or none for another business ..that coupled with rising expenses for consumer debt and less dollars available to spend for most Americans and throw in people feeling poorer and not spending as much if markets tumble , I think we can see a slow down or recession.
So I think we will see rates lower than today as investors bid bond rates down to get in to them.
As it is bond investors fear something as 2% on the 30 year in 7% inflation says the bond markets smell trouble and disagree with poppa fed
The FRB testified to Congress that it is not going to invert the yield curve during its fight against inflation and while raising overnight bank rates six or more times.
Therefor the FRB is going to massively reduce the size of its balance sheet.
That's 2.75% for the year-ending 10-year Treasury
.
The FRB testified to Congress that it is not going to invert the yield curve during its fight against inflation and while raising overnight bank rates six or more times.
Therefor the FRB is going to massively reduce the size of its balance sheet.
That's 2.75% for the year-ending 10-year Treasury
.
The FRB testified to Congress that it is not going to invert the yield curve during its fight against inflation and while raising overnight bank rates six or more times.
Therefor the FRB is going to massively reduce the size of its balance sheet.
That's 2.75% for the year-ending 10-year Treasury
.
If the world’s investors bid those bond rates down in a flight to safety that curve will invert with our without the fed.
Our bonds are still the best horse in the glue factory and world demand will be there .
All these 3rd world countries need a place for their own countries billions that is safe and secure , even at zero ….whatever the fed doesn’t buy you can bet the world will
The 10-year coupon is 1.38% while the current yield is 1.87%.
The same numerical move again, reaches 2.36%.
The FRB is predicting three overnight bank rate increases in 2022 and that could reach 1% on a three-month rate. Also, the FRB says that they are not going to invert the yield curve and that means they are going to sell longer-term bonds off their balance sheet
.
2.75% or so, I think the Fed juice is ending... it's evident Powell is smelling the possible carnage ahead and trying to get ahead of it... whether he will succeed is unknown.
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