Another bank down --- another one bites the dust

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

Yea, Berkshire going to get some great deals when the time is right. They know this banking crisis is early innings though. Once the CRE crisis plays out, that’s when the great deals will be there for the taking. I’m certain Berkshire and their $130B cash pile will be ready.

https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/...86281996488707

while berkshire has underperformed some of my favorite funds over the years like fidelity contra , fidelity blue chip growth , fidelity growth company i saw no reason to own it . but i do think going forward it can be a good choice .

first of all berkshire is so diversified you are really buying a fund not just a single company .

i think all that cash may finally pay off for them.

they have had some poor choices in holdings the last few years but those are now pretty much gone.

ala ibm , wells fargo , they bought a gold mining company , sold it at a loss only to have it soar .geico had a 2 billion dollar write off after losing 2 million clients

[FREE866]

So now it seems the whole “ the banking system is crumbling and stocks are gonna crash” narrative has pretty much disappeared. Markets up almost 8% since the whole SVB debacle if you notice….. What’s the next news story you guys are clinging to now?

Debt ceiling one has some appeal no?

Or how about Russia?
Oh wait that was months ago

The Fed maybe?

[ALackOfCreativity]

Originally Posted by FREE866

So now it seems the whole “ the banking system is crumbling and stocks are gonna crash” narrative has pretty much disappeared. Markets up almost 8% since the whole SVB debacle if you notice….. What’s the next news story you guys are clinging to now?

Debt ceiling one has some appeal no?

Or how about Russia?
Oh wait that was months ago

The Fed maybe?

The problem with the crash narrative is that 2022 WAS a pretty big crash in real dollar terms and everyone is looking for what would cause a crash while ignoring that the crash was already in progress / had already happened. The banking system is in for a world of trouble if high rates and QT continue but their stocks have already reacted to that. Commercial real estate? Same go take a look at the office REITs, regional banks, and life insurers. Publicly traded stocks look forward and react to news fast. Like the damage happens and then people tell a story about how the event will cause a crash that has already happened and they're right about the drop but it's receding in the rear view mirror not in front of the windshield.

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by YorktownGal

Janet Yellen is senile or just plain stupid. Weimar Germany, here we come!

Economics fail. The Weimar Republic was a closed system, unlike the US which is an open system.

Was the Papiermark an international reserve currency? Nope.

Was the Papiermark an international currency of trade? Nope.

Did the Weimar Republic central bank issue marketable securities? Nope.

Get it? Apparently not.

Originally Posted by tolovefromANFIELD

First, they lower rates to nothing for a loooong time and print trillions--call the inflation "transitory", and now are on a war path in the complete opposite, and then they'll reverse again.

Got any proof? Nope.

The money supply disproves your claim. So does the GDP.

[quote=HereOnMars;65227056]Well. The DOW dropped 500 points on yet another tumble in the banking sector.[/url]

Hyperventilate much? Gosh, a whole 500 points. What is that? 1.5%?

That would be like a basketball game where the score is 66-65 (1.5%) with 10 minutes to go in the final period and you're gonna panic and throw in the towel.

I guess it's a good thing it didn't lose 48.2% or you'd have had a heart attack and a brain aneurysm.

[Skezo]

Originally Posted by ALackOfCreativity

The problem with the crash narrative is that 2022 WAS a pretty big crash in real dollar terms and everyone is looking for what would cause a crash while ignoring that the crash was already in progress / had already happened. The banking system is in for a world of trouble if high rates and QT continue but their stocks have already reacted to that. Commercial real estate? Same go take a look at the office REITs, regional banks, and life insurers. Publicly traded stocks look forward and react to news fast. Like the damage happens and then people tell a story about how the event will cause a crash that has already happened and they're right about the drop but it's receding in the rear view mirror not in front of the windshield.

Ehhh, if even more continued hikes then yea, but unlikely. If rates stay at their currently elevated level for longer then their HTM yield is going to increase as older ones mature and help to keep a solid NIM.

It was quite sad logging into my brokerage account in early 2020, luckily it was double at the end of the year what it was at its low.