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I was actually thinking of making a merger arb trade on SAVE. The spread is insane right now, and I don’t see how the DOJ wins in an anti trust argument with two smaller airlines like these. Might take a few months to work out, but could be a double.
As for shorting, I don’t short, but I would think it’s going to be tough making any real money shorting air and cruise lines. I mean, these stocks already have very high short interests, right? At this point, I would think you’re more likely to get caught in a short squeeze on good news than make any real money on the downside of these things.
I was actually thinking of making a merger arb trade on SAVE. The spread is insane right now, and I don’t see how the DOJ wins in an anti trust argument with two smaller airlines like these. Might take a few months to work out, but could be a double.
As for shorting, I don’t short, but I would think it’s going to be tough making any real money shorting air and cruise lines. I mean, these stocks already have very high short interests, right? At this point, I would think you’re more likely to get caught in a short squeeze on good news than make any real money on the downside of these things.
Fair enough point, but what good news is on the horizon for these industries? Do you see the middle east situation resolving itself anytime soon?
Do you see hatred against this country lessening, and granny and grandpa jumping at the chance to fly to Europe in the next 6 months?
I see them saying, nah, we'll do it another year, and we'll stay close to home.
LOL. I'm going to Germany in December. LOTS of people are flying.
That's not the issue. Of course lots of people are flying on things already booked.
But less people will be flying and cruising if the mid east situation stays volatile. Plus there's the possibility of oil price spikes - which is ALWAYS bad for the airlines.
That's not the issue. Of course lots of people are flying on things already booked.
But less people will be flying and cruising if the mid east situation stays volatile. Plus there's the possibility of oil price spikes - which is ALWAYS bad for the airlines.
People aren't flying to Israel or Gaza, I'll give you that. But to think people consciously decide not to fly to, say, Hawaii or Paris or Cancun is a little silly. The middle east is almost perpetually in turmoil. I would never make an investment decision based on the middle east unless it was an oil stock or Qatar Airlines or something directly related.
I haven't booked my tickets yet as I need to figure out which family members will be going. My mother told me this past Saturday that she "just" booked the cruise.
I'm not traveling to the Gaza strip. What's going on there right now does not affect my travel plans.
That's not the issue. Of course lots of people are flying on things already booked.
But less people will be flying and cruising if the mid east situation stays volatile. Plus there's the possibility of oil price spikes - which is ALWAYS bad for the airlines.
I don't know too many Americans vacationing in the Middle East, bud. Not many to Eastern Europe either. The world is a big place. People will always want to travel, so they will just go to safer places. But you do you.
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