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Old 11-13-2023, 09:22 AM
 
Location: Wonderland
67,650 posts, read 61,175,975 times
Reputation: 101095

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChessieMom View Post
If you were referring to me - I've not "freaked out" in years. I simply commented on the thread.
Oh, I had no particular person in mind.
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Old 11-13-2023, 12:29 PM
 
3,359 posts, read 1,742,750 times
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Some analysts are right, Wall street continue to put out low expectations that are easy to beat to make it seem like the company is doing better when they're only beating lowered expectations. This is a warning sign of a pending market crash. Next quarter you can't beat another lowered expectation, it can't be lower than the previous lowered expectations. Otherwise short interest will outpace the bulls.
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Old 11-13-2023, 07:56 PM
 
26,199 posts, read 21,675,770 times
Reputation: 22772
Quote:
Originally Posted by MKTwet View Post
Some analysts are right, Wall street continue to put out low expectations that are easy to beat to make it seem like the company is doing better when they're only beating lowered expectations. This is a warning sign of a pending market crash. Next quarter you can't beat another lowered expectation, it can't be lower than the previous lowered expectations. Otherwise short interest will outpace the bulls.
Earnings expectations can certainly be lower and there’s no logical reason to believe they can’t. Also wall streets expectations aren’t what moves the market, it’s investors expectations. Seems like more shooting from the hip than anything else
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Old 11-15-2023, 08:35 PM
 
Location: Berkeley Neighborhood, Denver, CO USA
17,720 posts, read 29,915,186 times
Reputation: 33349
April 3, 2026
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Old 11-16-2023, 02:59 PM
 
3,358 posts, read 1,461,659 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
the dow is a poor number since it includes no accounting for all the dividend
s paid out .

the same number on the dow would actually represent a decent gain
He asked you to hazard a guess in when the Dow will exceed a specified level….do you have one?
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Old 11-16-2023, 03:59 PM
 
107,031 posts, read 109,313,415 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WVNomad View Post
He asked you to hazard a guess in when the Dow will exceed a specified level….do you have one?
nope , nor would i try
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Old 11-17-2023, 11:35 AM
 
3,358 posts, read 1,461,659 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
nope , nor would i try
Kind of misses the point then.
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Old 11-17-2023, 11:51 AM
 
107,031 posts, read 109,313,415 times
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no , the point is when the dow numbers are re hit , the dow isn’t even , it’s farther ahead because the raw numbers don’t reflect the dividends that were paid .
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Old 11-17-2023, 11:53 AM
 
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
34,794 posts, read 58,271,470 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WVNomad View Post
He asked you to hazard a guess in when the Dow will exceed a specified level….do you have one?
5.6% from today

Maybe April 30, 2024 Maybe not...

Since it's the DOW, it will probably not be tomorrow

But could be yet in 2023 (Santa Claus rally)

Look beyond the DOW if you want a better and more relevant gauge for USA economy.
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Old 11-17-2023, 12:03 PM
 
107,031 posts, read 109,313,415 times
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no index is reflective of the economy..

stocks trade on fear , greed and FUTURE EXPECTATIONS of the performance of that stock ..



markets and growth and corporate profits have never been linked .

as much as we think higher profits lead to higher stock prices it really does not work like that .

markets are based on greed ,fear and perception not the here and now .

gains and corporate profits don't flow together more ofton than not.

in the book a random walk down wall street 548 nyse issues were tracked and analyed over 5 year periods and the results were the performance had no relationship between the technical and fundemental signals and the actual stock performance ..

ned davis research took another look at the relationship and going as far back as 1927 they found when profits rose more than:

20% the s&p returned a mere 1.3% in gains

10 to 20% saw 5.8% in gains

(-10% to + 10% in profits saw a 9.3% jump in gains

(-10%) to (-25%) drop in profits saw 28.6% gains

(-25%) and lower saw a -28% drop in share price.
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