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since selling near a top takes a nervous nellie personality, and buying at the bottom when there is no sign anything is getting better takes nerves of steel .
rarely does one person possess both qualities.
i can be a dirty lil market timer at heart so after failed attempts i just follow the lead of a newsletter since 1987 with excellent results compared to my own attempts at predicting what’s next
History has proven that buying down 30%+ works every time. Markets always bounce back eventually. It doesn't require precise market timing or rocket science, just a general understanding of history.
History has proven that buying down 30%+ works every time. Markets always bounce back eventually. It doesn't require precise market timing or rocket science, just a general understanding of history.
it also shows simply riding broad based funds thru the cycle as well as just investing anytime you have the dough with no timing works very well
after a number of years , whatever new money one can add is peeing in the ocean compared to the portfolio size so timing buys becomes less relevant as markets go higher over time and portfolio size grows .
a 7% drop early on may have represented a few months of 401k contributions…today it represents more then 10 years of contributions at max
Last edited by mathjak107; 02-11-2024 at 09:47 AM..
it also shows simply riding broad based funds thru the cycle as well as just investing anytime you have the dough with no timing works very well
after a number of years , whatever new money one can add is peeing in the ocean compared to the portfolio size so timing buys becomes less relevant as markets go higher over time and portfolio size grows .
a 7% drop early on may have represented a few months of 401k contributions…today it represents more then 10 years of contributions at max
I get what you're saying. What I was trying to highlight was those many people who were frantically trying to exit markets after they had fallen substantially in each of these downturns, and to point out that it was clearly the wrong strategy. They were acting on emotions, not on logic. The right strategy was to hold steady, or add stocks. Not sell them.
since selling near a top takes a nervous nellie personality, and buying at the bottom when there is no sign anything is getting better takes nerves of steel .
rarely does one person possess both qualities.
i can be a dirty lil market timer at heart so after failed attempts i just follow the lead of a newsletter since 1987 with excellent results compared to my own attempts at predicting what’s next
I don't agree with that, for me it's not being a nervous nellie or having nerves of steel it's just logical.
I don't trade all my stocks but if I see a pattern in a stock, I'll trade in and out regularly.
I'll probably not get the highs or lowest but I make a profit.
I don't agree with that, for me it's not being a nervous nellie or having nerves of steel it's just logical.
I don't trade all my stocks but if I see a pattern in a stock, I'll trade in and out regularly.
I'll probably not get the highs or lowest but I make a profit.
we are not talking individual stocks , but rather markets , cycles and diversified funds and timing sells and buys in and out
individual stocks are a whole other issue . miss an earnings expectation and years of gains can vanish in a session.
so companies come and go all the time as far as whether to be in them or get out.
i am not keene on owning individual stocks as my cores , never was , to much work compared to just funds
three of my favorite reminder quotes
Warren Buffett: “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
William Bernstein: “You are not as good looking, as charming, or as good a driver as you think you are. The same goes for your investing abilities. In an environment filled with incredibly smart, hard-working, and well-informed participants the smartest trading strategy is not to trade at all.”
Burton Malkiel " ... The indexing strategy is the one I recommend most highly. At least the core of every portfolio ought to be indexed. I recognize, however, that telling most investors that there is no hope of beating the averages is like telling a six year old that there is no Santa Claus. It takes the zing out of life."
we are not talking individual stocks , but rather markets , cycles and diversified funds and timing sells and buys in and out
individual stocks are a whole other issue . miss an earnings expectation and years of gains can vanish in a session.
so companies come and go all the time as far as whether to be in them or get out.
i am not keene on owning individual stocks as my cores , never was , to much work compared to just funds
three of my favorite reminder quotes
Warren Buffett: “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
William Bernstein: “You are not as good looking, as charming, or as good a driver as you think you are. The same goes for your investing abilities. In an environment filled with incredibly smart, hard-working, and well-informed participants the smartest trading strategy is not to trade at all.”
Burton Malkiel " ... The indexing strategy is the one I recommend most highly. At least the core of every portfolio ought to be indexed. I recognize, however, that telling most investors that there is no hope of beating the averages is like telling a six year old that there is no Santa Claus. It takes the zing out of life."
Agree, that is why I'm also thinking of getting out of NVDA before the earnings report on the 21st.
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
34,690 posts, read 57,994,855 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by organic_donna
But that drop was due to Covid, and the outcome was uncertain. ..... Covid was not a time to jump in and buy, we were much too uncertain of the outcome.
We?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoundAdvice4U
History has proven that buying down 30%+ works every time. Markets always bounce back eventually. It doesn't require precise market timing or rocket science, just a general understanding of history.
Covid was a gift horse to investment cycles (and quite well understood as to why). Typical Black Swan, single cause fear adjustment... ("V" shaped recovery)
Excellent time to use excess cash to add LT holds, rebalance, do Roth Rolls.
Like kind / transfer of devalued LT holds from tIRA to Roth locked in significant benefit to non-taxed gains.
Snapshot of investment assets and allocations Dec 2019> Feb 2024 (on my tracking spreadsheet last night). Gives thought to "how-much-is-enough" (for risk management during 50 years of retirement, haven't added additional 'outside $$' to savings in the last 20 years. It's grown ~5x. Systematically will skim off front loaded spending. (During the peaks). Leaving majority growing through most of 2024.
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
34,690 posts, read 57,994,855 times
Reputation: 46171
Quote:
Originally Posted by organic_donna
I am keeping mine!
During my earning years, I paid myself ahead, by sticking highly appreciated gains into DAF as offset to income then, and perpetual gifting now. (Retired).
That has been a big benefit.
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