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Not taking away from this important milestone BUT one very important point to note is that we're still DOWN on a real basis and have NOT recovered from the downturn that started at the start of 2022. Nominal values mean nothing to me.
To just break even in real terms from Jan 2022 the SPX needs to hit 5261. And that is just to break even with zero gains over 2+ years. So not sure what the celebration is all about.
Not taking away from this important milestone BUT one very important point to note is that we're still DOWN on a real basis and have NOT recovered from the downturn that started at the start of 2022. Nominal values mean nothing to me.
To just break even in real terms from Jan 2022 the SPX needs to hit 5261. And that is just to break even with zero gains over 2+ years. So not sure what the celebration is all about.
My total portfolio only recently recovered from its high in Dec 2021 ( right before I retired of course). So when I read posts on the forum about how we are “due for a correction”, and “ nothing will stop this bull market” and “everything is overvalued”….I have to wonder - were those people even invested in Dec 2021? Because we haven’t come very far since then. It’s been a long slow-moving 2 years.
My total portfolio only recently recovered from its high in Dec 2021 ( right before I retired of course). So when I read posts on the forum about how we are “due for a correction”, and “ nothing will stop this bull market” and “everything is overvalued”….I have to wonder - were those people even invested in Dec 2021? Because we haven’t come very far since then. It’s been a long slow-moving 2 years.
I agree with you, it took a long time to recover from the downturn. For me having to remove a large amount
annually for RMD did not help with the recovery. Before the downturn, even with RMD the investment would
still outpace the withdrawal, but that has just occurred again recently. It also took a somewhat more
I agree with you, it took a long time to recover from the downturn. For me having to remove a large amount
annually for RMD did not help with the recovery. Before the downturn, even with RMD the investment would
still outpace the withdrawal, but that has just occurred again recently. It also took a somewhat more
aggressive approach to trading.
I get what you all are saying, but I do think we will reach and surpass that level (whatever that level is) in the not too distant future. Markets rarely peak at the last peak. Most likely we'll see far higher levels on the S&P in the next couple of years. In terms of celebrating, I do think its an achievement to get back to late 2021 peak levels given that many naysayers were predicting an imminent recession for the past 1-2 years that never came. Many experts were super bearish and telling people to stay in cash or bonds. Imagine if you had followed their advice? You would not have gotten back to the late 2021 levels.
My total portfolio only recently recovered from its high in Dec 2021 ( right before I retired of course). So when I read posts on the forum about how we are “due for a correction”, and “ nothing will stop this bull market” and “everything is overvalued”….I have to wonder - were those people even invested in Dec 2021? Because we haven’t come very far since then. It’s been a long slow-moving 2 years.
Yes it has been. I've reached new highs in NW this year but it's not really that impressive considering what I've put in the last two years. This bull run is good and hopefully lasts a lot longer because the last two years were garbage.
My total portfolio only recently recovered from its high in Dec 2021 ( right before I retired of course). So when I read posts on the forum about how we are “due for a correction”, and “ nothing will stop this bull market” and “everything is overvalued”….I have to wonder - were those people even invested in Dec 2021? Because we haven’t come very far since then. It’s been a long slow-moving 2 years.
I have an acquaintance, in broad terms a reasonable man, who is utterly convinced that the US stock market has been overvalued since around 1994... that would be 30 years. He believes that the nadir of March 2009 was insufficiently low, that the market today belongs at around the level where it was in the late 1990s, and that all of our recent "corrections" were woefully insufficiently correct. His argument isn't Marxist, doomsday-prepper or millenialist, but on what he deems to be bedrock principles of stock market valuation. He thinks that what we need now, isn't even another "lost decade", but maybe a lost 20-30 years, so that maybe by 2050 or so, the market will have then recovered, to a more reasonable level. His own solution is a mix of around 90% invested in US T-bills, and the remaining 10% in speculative options, such as writing naked puts, or covered calls.
We see such sentiment frequently. Sometimes it's based on fringe speculations, or just desire to sensationalize and to taunt. But other times, as in the case of my acquaintance, it's a genuinely held belief, that those of us who buy-and-hold, who dollar cost average and so on, are purblind adherents to a lost cause. By this reckoning, the past two years, are only a modest foretaste, of the greater calamity to come.
My own view isn't to embrace such skepticism, or even to bestow upon it a respectful agreement-to-disagree. Instead, I merely note, that those of us who do buy-and-hold, have to be prepared not only to face multi-year periods of stagnation, but also the naysayers... and that even over quite long periods, those naysayers will appear, at least superficially, to be right.
I have an acquaintance, in broad terms a reasonable man, who is utterly convinced that the US stock market has been overvalued since around 1994... that would be 30 years. He believes that the nadir of March 2009 was insufficiently low, that the market today belongs at around the level where it was in the late 1990s, and that all of our recent "corrections" were woefully insufficiently correct. His argument isn't Marxist, doomsday-prepper or millenialist, but on what he deems to be bedrock principles of stock market valuation. He thinks that what we need now, isn't even another "lost decade", but maybe a lost 20-30 years, so that maybe by 2050 or so, the market will have then recovered, to a more reasonable level. His own solution is a mix of around 90% invested in US T-bills, and the remaining 10% in speculative options, such as writing naked puts, or covered calls.
We see such sentiment frequently. Sometimes it's based on fringe speculations, or just desire to sensationalize and to taunt. But other times, as in the case of my acquaintance, it's a genuinely held belief, that those of us who buy-and-hold, who dollar cost average and so on, are purblind adherents to a lost cause. By this reckoning, the past two years, are only a modest foretaste, of the greater calamity to come.
If lost causes make as much money as the U.S. stock market has made over the last 15 years, then we need a lot more lost causes.
Yes it has been. I've reached new highs in NW this year but it's not really that impressive considering what I've put in the last two years. This bull run is good and hopefully lasts a lot longer because the last two years were garbage.
Not sure why people fixate on this notion. Measuring returns over the past 2 years is utterly pointless. We had one very bad year (2022) followed by a very good rebound year (2023) and are now back to equilibrium. 2022 was an outlier. Sometimes markets correct for 1-2 years. Every decade has periods like that. We could have said the same thing in 2010, after a terrific year in 2009, that stocks were not even back to 2007 levels. What good did that do? Markets kept rising exponentially thereafter. Unless you believe S&P 5000 is the peak and we are facing a decade-long stagnation like the 70's?
80% of all our investing time is spent between the last low and last high , yet where we are can be up hundreds of thousands of dollars at that stage.
yet people fixate on some momentary high point
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So when I read posts on the forum about how we are “due for a correction”, and “ nothing will stop this bull market” and “everything is overvalued”….I have to wonder - were those people even invested in Dec 2021? Because we haven’t come very far since then. It’s been a long slow-moving 2 years.
