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Old 02-13-2024, 01:48 PM
 
Location: Sputnik Planitia
7,829 posts, read 11,787,380 times
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Very similar prediction by a talking head, 30% upside from here:



https://markets.businessinsider.com/...outlook-2024-2
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Old 02-13-2024, 02:18 PM
 
18,074 posts, read 15,664,302 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
Good picks, but remember that Apple was on it's way to being out of business before they brought Steve Jobs back in 1997.
None of that matters. The ask was, "name a high-flying stock from 50 yrs ago that is still hot today."

There are many older and still-successful companies that have been around 50 or close to 50 years.
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Old 02-13-2024, 03:21 PM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,560 posts, read 28,659,961 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lottamoxie View Post
None of that matters. The ask was, "name a high-flying stock from 50 yrs ago that is still hot today."

There are many older and still-successful companies that have been around 50 or close to 50 years.
A stock like GE hit a peak in the year 2000 and then it declined more than 80%.

I would not hold a stock like that. If some people want to take that risk, they can. But I would not recommend it.

In most cases, by the time a stock has become the “talk of the town,” it’s already too late to get into it. It can nose dive on you anytime and take years to recover, or not recover at all.
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Old 02-13-2024, 03:27 PM
 
106,655 posts, read 108,810,853 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
A stock like GE hit a peak in the year 2000 and then it declined more than 80%.

I would not hold a stock like that. If some people want to take that risk, they can. But I would not recommend it.

In most cases, by the time a stock has become the “talk of the town,” it’s already too late to get into it. It can nose dive on you anytime and take years to recover, or not recover at all.
same thing happened with the ark funds .

by the time most heard of it they got in and got hammered .

ark is in the top ten list for most wealth destruction by an etf

The ARKK ETF destroyed $7.1 billion in wealth, while its healthcare-focused ARK Genomic ETF destroyed $4.2 billion in wealth, according to Morningstar. Across all fund families that have destroyed wealth over the past decade, Ark Invest topped the list — and its losses were more than double the next firm on the list

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathi...23315637.html#
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Old 02-13-2024, 05:01 PM
 
Location: Victory Mansions, Airstrip One
6,750 posts, read 5,054,508 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by k374 View Post
Very similar prediction by a talking head, 30% upside from here:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...outlook-2024-2
Good grief

Quote:
"Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
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Old 02-14-2024, 02:10 PM
 
Location: Sputnik Planitia
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S&P 500 recapturing 5000 today is extremely bullish imo
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Old 02-14-2024, 03:03 PM
 
539 posts, read 440,896 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by k374 View Post
S&P 500 recapturing 5000 today is extremely bullish imo
The question, should we choose to answer it:

"What will be the peak SP500 valuation, right before the next correction?"

My WAG is 5900. September 2025. Drop of 12% down to about 5200. I think the wildcard is how hot the AI stocks run, and how spooked people become about the national debt, causing a pullback from frightened investors. Then we could see a very short-term bear market.

If the US wasn't $34T in debt, then I would have pushed it out a few more years, and said 7100 would be the peak for the SP500.

Last edited by cheeva; 02-14-2024 at 03:20 PM..
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Old 02-14-2024, 03:45 PM
 
Location: moved
13,650 posts, read 9,711,429 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cheeva View Post
The question, should we choose to answer it:

"What will be the peak SP500 valuation, right before the next correction?"

My WAG is 5900. September 2025. Drop of 12% down to about 5200. ...
Why does this - or any other number - matter? If your time-horizon is finite, then orient your portfolio accordingly, so that the necessary funds are not encumbered by volatility, to be turned into risk. If your time-horizon is infinite, then why, beyond sheer entertainment and whimsy, even bother with any prognostications?
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Old 02-15-2024, 12:10 AM
 
539 posts, read 440,896 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
Why does this - or any other number - matter? If your time-horizon is finite, then orient your portfolio accordingly, so that the necessary funds are not encumbered by volatility, to be turned into risk. If your time-horizon is infinite, then why, beyond sheer entertainment and whimsy, even bother with any prognostications?


Yes.
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Old 02-16-2024, 10:34 AM
 
Location: Sputnik Planitia
7,829 posts, read 11,787,380 times
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SPX would have to climb another 25% to reach dot com levels of euphoria, SocGen:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-nvidia-2024-2
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