Where will the DOW bottom out? (trading, credit, markets, interest) - Investing -stocks, bonds, mutual funds, trading, market, brokers... - City-Data Forum

Kootr · 10-09-2008, 01:33 PM

PLEASE VOTE IN THE POLL (Question: Where will the DOW bottom out?)

J Arp · 10-09-2008, 01:36 PM

My (uneducated) guess last week was at around 8,000. After today I quit guessing and just watch the ticker on yahoo's website.

Oh and scotch...lots of scotch is in there somewhere. *hiccup*

cpg35223 · 10-09-2008, 01:38 PM

7,700 is my guess. As somebody said today, any day that doesn't have a 500 point drop is a good one.

Kootr · 10-09-2008, 01:46 PM

Cast your vote in the poll.

Kootr · 10-09-2008, 01:49 PM

Well, the upper range of 8,751 - 9,000 in the Poll has already become obsolete. That only took a few minutes on a day with the DOW down 650 points...

k374 · 10-09-2008, 02:39 PM

Given that there is a lot more strain to be released in the markets, Alt-A crisis in housing is still to come, so I am thinking at the VERY least another 1000pt drop to 7500 and I am being optimistic. The market is going down with quite a ferocity because the primary component of the market - confidence/sentiment - is all but gone!

paperhouse · 10-09-2008, 02:43 PM

Tomorrow, AIG credit default swaps are being auctioned. And the G7 are coming here for a meeting with Bush.

Now, we're officially in a recession.

For every month that you try to avoid a correction, add 1% drop when the correction should occur but doesn't due to artificial manipulation of the interest rates. I'm thinking that's about 30 months ago. Then you have to factor in the 10-20% drop due to a bear market. That drops us from a high of 14,000 to somewhere around 5-6k. And that's being optimistic without people panicking.

HappyTexan · 10-09-2008, 02:47 PM

7400 is another big support point below 10,000 according to some chartists.

Philosophizer · 10-09-2008, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyTexan

7400 is another big support point below 10,000 according to some chartists.

anyone trading technicals recently has been getting slaughtered. analysis doesn't apply in during times of panic.

k374 · 10-09-2008, 02:51 PM

We should immediately STOP propping up this house of cards. There are too many weak players, we should let the weak just die out. Let the system fail and address the fallout instead. Provide assistance to institutions that are viable for the long term so that they are not affected solely due to lack of confidence.

Top economists like Roubini have already suggested a triage, but of course the government in it's infinite wisdom just wants to throw money at the problem instead of actually having a plan. Propping up institutions that are too weak to survive is just a HUGE waste of money...we need to consolidate and support those who have the best chances at survival.