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Old 06-01-2010, 08:38 PM
 
1,963 posts, read 5,091,102 times
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Oh no the sky is falling! I better liquidate all my financial assets & stock up on gold ingots & diamonds and move to Costa Rica... Not.

The only thing that the US has to worry about is a deflationary spiral similar to Japan where pro-active monetary policies weren't implemented fast enough.
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Old 06-02-2010, 05:55 PM
 
Location: AZ
2,066 posts, read 3,520,980 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smokingGun View Post
Oh no the sky is falling! I better liquidate all my financial assets & stock up on gold ingots & diamonds and move to Costa Rica... Not.

The only thing that the US has to worry about is a deflationary spiral similar to Japan where pro-active monetary policies weren't implemented fast enough.
You're in for a big surprise if that's what you really believe. Have you seen the debt to GDP ratio lately?


http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-e...o-better-39275
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Old 06-03-2010, 03:45 AM
 
91,683 posts, read 88,985,271 times
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these soothsayers predicted 6 of our last 2 reccessions with compleate accuracy
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Old 06-03-2010, 04:40 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
8,482 posts, read 12,387,411 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gixxer1K View Post


http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-euro-is-washed-up-—-but-the-dollar-is-no-better-39275 (broken link)
I define collapse as failure to deliver food, basic housing, and basic utilities to millions, perhaps hundreds of millions of people.

The countries of early industrialization (US, Europe, Japan) are in relative decline because of the globalization of industrialization and aging, possibly in absolute decline by some measures.

The US has suffered a financial crisis and deep recession because it tried to deliver energy-inefficient luxury housing (mostly a failure in part also due to poor design and poor spatial planning) as well as luxury means of transport (again see energy inefficiency and poor spatial planning) to tens of millions of globally uncompetitive people and spread the risk to the European financial system and others.

I agree with the author of the cited article that, in the face of this decline and these recent policy blunders, the governments of the countries of early industrialization will most likely attempt, eventually, to cover the accumulated debt through inflationary policies rather than official default.

For example, most likely the US government will continue cutting social security checks in 30 years, even to the tune of $3,000 a month for the average worker, but that $3,000 a month will probably buy around 2,000 calories per month worth of food ... just ask Fidel.

That does not rule out deflationary policies, entailing continued real wage cuts and subsidies to masses of idle people (whether in nominal or real terms), or a combination of inflation and deflation over time, depending on the political and social goals of the ruling classes who can and, from time to time, actually do commit blunders and lose control of situations, even entire territories, empires and civilizations.

Good Luck!

Last edited by bale002; 06-03-2010 at 04:58 AM..
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Old 06-04-2010, 04:15 AM
 
Location: Sandpoint, Idaho
3,000 posts, read 5,770,924 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eskercurve View Post
I would expect such nonsense from doomsday cult websites and conspiracy theorists' blogs. NOT Marketwatch, but there it is:

Crash is dead ahead. Sell. Get liquid. Now Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch

Why do they let a PSYCHOLOGIST talk about the economy like this? He makes some very good points:

1) The level of the national debt will increase to about 90% of GDP very shortly. That sort of spending is unsustainable and we should reign in our expenses.

2) The amount of QE reduction by the Fed will likely cause a selloff of the market due to the loss of liquidity. Those who stay in better have diversification built in.

3) Irrational exuberance abounds during bubbles and we're in danger of entering another euphoria phase.

But this guy's advice is ALL OVER THE PLACE. Earlier this year he wrote that the best way to ride out the "imminent collapse of the economy" is to buy a place in the farmlands, plant your own food, learn your neighbors and hang out with them ... basically move to a farming community, and buy lots of ammo and guns, and have gold on hand.

THEN he goes and tells us to invest in his so-called "lazy portfolios" ... what's up with that?

So, assuming he has a game to play and he wants us to play along so he can (somehow) make out ahead ... what good does this whipsaw advice buy him? Just more lunacy out there ...

But I'm just curious, does anyone really take his advice seriously? Or would the best advice to be to put a filter on his hyperbole and look at the underlying message? I highly doubt that anyone of these columnists are "looking out for the little guy" ...
Whether or not the prognostication is correct, the article is evidence of just how ignorant guys on Wall street can actually be. Many analysis are literally pulled out of their arses. That said, the kings of ignorance continue to be the sheeple who people who entrust their money and brand in these guys.

Do your own due diligence...

S.
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Old 06-04-2010, 06:24 AM
 
91,683 posts, read 88,985,271 times
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everyone keeps hoping they latch on to the guy with the crystal ball.....

i dont who will be right or who will be wrong but one thing history shows is those that said the glass is half full during all the trying times were well rewarded.......

will it continue..... if i knew i wouldnt be telling you people thats for sure, id be betting the ranch from tahiti....
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Old 06-04-2010, 07:44 AM
 
8,265 posts, read 11,428,728 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emilybh View Post
Generally the article is right. Small time investors are notoriously stupid. They get into a rising market when it is too late and they try to short a stock after it is hit bottom.
I submit that the overwhelming majority of small time investors have never shorted anything, ever.
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Old 06-13-2010, 04:48 PM
 
Location: NC
5,135 posts, read 2,245,333 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slackjaw View Post
I submit that the overwhelming majority of small time investors have never shorted anything, ever.
Or even know what it means, probably.

However, he is basically correct in the notion that when people see the market going up, they want in and throw more and more money at it. Buying at/near a top.

Then when we have a correction (late 2008 early 2009) people sell at any cost. Which is exactly the time you want to get in...

The whole scare of "this time will be different" in terms of a rebound is what makes this market work. The weak hands sell near the lows and the market marches on....just as it always has.
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Old 06-13-2010, 08:29 PM
 
Location: Texas
2,847 posts, read 2,204,702 times
Reputation: 1755
very interesting from someone with credibility

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj
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Old 06-14-2010, 03:13 AM
 
91,683 posts, read 88,985,271 times
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its easy to tell when any of these financial talking heads are lying...

their lips are moving!
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