Here we go again...builders are at it... (HOA, houses)

[EricBoyd]

I may have missed this mention, but has anyone considered that it's still very inexpensive to borrow money to purchase a house? So, there's plenty of blame to be shared by the Fed in this regard. I've been saying to my circle of friends for a while now that interest rates can't continue to remain this low. It should be no secret that there's some serious market manipulation going on by the Fed.

[Robyn55]

Originally Posted by GadgetRick

So, seems like the builders are prepared to start another housing bubble. They just can't help themselves. Build on every available square inch of land. It NEVER works out well but they just do it over and over and over again.

The bigger problem is they are over-building in many areas. Of course, the city is to blame for allowing it. They are building a TON on Beach just West of Hodges. In about a year, traffic will start to get really bad and only get worse as they build more and more in the are.

Having moved here from the most densely-populated state (NJ), I can tell you this is NOT what people want. Besides the congestion, etc. it just causes a host of other problems, which will eventually cost a lot more than what the increased tax base is worth. It will also make it unbearable to live in the area--much like Orange Park is currently.

Of course, the builders are allowed to cut down every tree on all of these lots. So we also lose valuable trees and all of these developments look overly-sterile and have no shade trees driving up cooling costs in our hot summers. So you get a double-whammy to the environment.

I'm not anti-building/expansion. I'm anti-over building/expansion.

I agree some of what you've written. But a lot of trees that are being cut down are junk - especially the pine trees. And - to the extent that some trees - like oaks - aren't junk - they shouldn't be planted close to houses (and a lot of the oaks you see here aren't original - but planted by builders/homeowners).

A large tree that is close enough to your house to shade it is also large enough to crash through your roof. And you don't even need a hurricane to do that. All you need is a lot of rain which raises an already high water table - and loosens the root system on a shallow rooted tree - and then a little bit of wind. Also - in certain places that are prone to wildfires - you don't want burnable plant material - including trees - anywhere near your house.

I think houses should be energy efficient. But trees close to houses aren't usually a good way to do it here IMO. Robyn

[StreetSmarts]

just dont tear down big pine trees or oaks and put in palm trees. ugh.

[JBtwinz]

Originally Posted by EricBoyd

I may have missed this mention, but has anyone considered that it's still very inexpensive to borrow money to purchase a house? So, there's plenty of blame to be shared by the Fed in this regard. I've been saying to my circle of friends for a while now that interest rates can't continue to remain this low. It should be no secret that there's some serious market manipulation going on by the Fed.

This topic is a double edge sword.......there is no clear bad guy and no clear good guy. At the height of the housing boom there was enough inventory of empty lots in paved and curbed subdivisions to last three years.

There were so many scenario's

People who qualified and should not of been qualified for the homes they bought
People who should not of tapped their home like an ATM
People who decided to upgrade to a larger home due to the lower interest rates
People who were close to retirement who invested in a home they thought they could sell at a premium in a short time.
Builders who clearly over leveraged themselves as they thought they could build and sell forever.
County and cities that let the greed of permits and future taxes keep them from seeking responsible growth and not unchecked sprawl.

Bottom line......it was like a frenzy for those buying, selling or building.

Home prices went crazy, apartments were turned into condos and it went on and on.

Investors were buying 150,000K homes with cash and getting a much better return than CD's

We all know the stories or have friends and family affected, walkaways, short sales and those who will be in the hole for quite some time.

I have seen new condos selling here for 220K at the height only to be picked up two years back for the mid 80's

Here on Amelia two years ago there were fantastic deals......now rentals are tight and the pool of homes for sale is shrinking. What subdivisions that went under are now being built out by new builders who scooped up the vacant lots.

Off Island, building is booming and for the life of me I don't know where these people are coming from.
In some places they are building new homes in subdivisions with foreclosures right along side of them.

As far as how long interest rates can stay low.....look at Japans history:
Japan Interest Rate | Actual Value | Historical Data | Forecast

[Robyn55]

Originally Posted by fsu813

You should research who pulls the levers in Northeast Florida politics.

It's sprawl developers.

The next bubble will be in the rental/multifamily area though, not single family homes.There's A LOT of new apartments going up all over Jax and the US. Unsustainably.

The NE Florida homebuilders are a powerful political force to be sure. But the worst thing they do here IMO is trying to keep substandard building construction methods as the norm here. All the slab on grade stick construction and the like. Construction methods that aren't used hardly anywhere else in Florida. And that's true whether you're looking in Nocatee or Riverside/San Marco/Springfield.

All the builders here - regardless of where they're building - try to convince people that this area really isn't part of the "other" Florida. That we don't/can't get hurricanes/tropical storms/torrential rains here. And there's never been a termite found in these parts either. Which is a lot of BS IMO.

Of course - the builders are pandering to their intended audiences. People who just want cheap housing - whether or not it's built decently. Robyn

[StreetSmarts]

Stick-built more common in North FL?

No concrete block n stucco up air in ol Jax?

[Robyn55]

Originally Posted by Giants6

Maybe you didn't mind paying the mortgage on a depreciating asset, but others didn't care about the same "moral hazard" as you and simply left the keys on the counter when they could afford to pay house note. Builders do share the blame for why the homes were underwater. When Nocatee's home values go in half in a few years you'll see it a little clearer.

No - I don't see how it's the builder's fault if someone buys a house they can't afford - or won't pay for if it goes underwater. Just like they don't get credit if you buy a house and it doubles in price.

There is moral hazard in our economic system in many ways/shapes/forms to be sure. Especially as the result of fed actions and things that affect how much buyers have to pay in terms of down payments and mortgage interest rates. But how do builders contribute to it - in terms of specifics? Robyn

[StreetSmarts]

I see ppl down here in Orlando buying homes that overlook landfills. They dont care. They come from NJ or NY or another country and just want to get out of their current place so they'll seem to buy things I wouldn't buy just to get to FL. It's really weird.

[Robyn55]

Originally Posted by ComSense

Stick-built more common in North FL?

No concrete block n stucco up air in ol Jax?

There's hardly any normal Florida CBS construction here. When we built our house in 1996 - it was even hard to find a custom builder who would build a CBS house.

And just FWIW - Florida has a very long history of real estate boom and bust cycles. We moved here in the 1970's - and have been through 3. But they go way back to the 1920's (before my time ). Robyn

[StreetSmarts]

Yes, I'm in the industry, lots of ups and downs in FL. More than other places.